Will Biden Dare to Recognize a Palestinian State

By Sam Menassa

Both Iran and Israel have managed, in record time, to mobilize the largest number of adversaries or lose the largest number of friends. Iran has Europe’s overt or covert sympathy, pushing the Europeans to adopt a position more aligned with their US ally because they have concluded that Iran has become a destabilizing force in the region. Indeed, Iran has gone as far as undermining European economic interests, as it is accused of being behind the Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea, in addition to other reckless actions by its allies in the region. As for Israel, it has done more to alienate friends than its arch-enemy, dissipating the support it enjoyed after October 7th. At this point, almost the entire world has condemned the brutality of Israel’s retaliation to the "Al-Aqsa Flood'' attack. Israel has stubbornly rejected all initiatives and mediations, and it has insisted on perpetuating the violence with the declared aim of annihilating Hamas, and the hidden aims of displacing Palestinians, which do not end with the occupation of Gaza and could even include displacing the population of the West Bank. Iran, Israel, and some factions are the parties to the Gaza war and the smaller ongoing conflicts in the region, from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea. The state of affairs has created a ticking time bomb that will eventually blow up in everyone's face. Although the United States and some Western countries share Israel's goal of containing and weakening Hamas, they oppose its right-wing government’s other war objectives. Instead, they seek, through initiatives and active diplomacy, to put an end to the war and reach a sustainable political settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian and the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. 

The primary belligerents, namely Israel, Iran, and other factions, are unanimous in their rejection of the short-term or permanent initiatives and settlements on offer, raising questions about whether they can obstruct them and for how long. This question is particularly pertinent given the fact that the Europeans, the United States, and Arab states - specifically the Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan, agree on the diplomatic objectives. These goals include a two-state solution, ensuring regional security, and the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations, which would ensure security for Israelis, Palestinians, and Arabs. We must acknowledge that these are broad objectives, and the details need to be hashed out. The first question to answer is what a two-state solution would look like and what regional security actually means. They must also determine how these goals should be achieved, the guarantees needed by the parties concerned, and the entity or entities that will back these guarantees. Other questions regarding the approach to managing the ongoing conflicts across the region between Israel and Iran's local allies must be resolved. 

What are the costs Iran will pay, or what will it receive, and how will these costs or rewards align with its concept of regional security? Moreover, Iran is very apprehensive about the prospect of a final, permanent settlement of the conflict and Arab-Israeli normalization facilitated by US guarantees. How would Iran respond to such a scenario? Would it be capable of preventing it? Without delving into whether Iran wants to obstruct this process or not, the question of whether it has the capacity to disrupt a major settlement path remains, especially after it "shuffled the cards" in the region through the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation and froze the US-sponsored peace process between the Arabs and Israel. The dynamics of the region, the intertwined interests of its various actors, and the capabilities of the parties involved complicate these questions and make the answers pivotal to the future trajectory of the region, its stability, and its diplomatic relationships. We should not underestimate the significance of the push to end the conflict, especially after everything that the Al-Aqsa Flood and the Gaza war have revealed to Israel, the Arab states, and the region. 

Indeed, recent developments have had serious implications for the security of the region, the interests of Western powers, and the balance of power in the region. Iran alone can create obstacles and hurdles to such a settlement if it materializes, and it is not alone in this battle. Rather, it is spearheading this effort after consolidating its hold on strategically important and sensitive areas of the region. Iran's influence reaches the Red Sea, and it has effectively encircled Israel from the north through Lebanon and from the east through Syria. Its proxy militias are spread across Iraq, dominate Yemen, and control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait; it also has capabilities across the globe and relationships with a variety of powers. 

Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other members of the Resistance Axis are pushing in the opposite direction. They are patiently and methodically bolstering an alliance that could pose a direct challenge to the regional order established by the West that has shaped the Middle East for decades. The Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea show that they pose a threat to global trade and energy supplies, underlining the complexity and the multifaceted nature of the challenges to peace and security in the region. Iran is not the only entity capable of putting a stick in the wheels. It is unclear how much longer will Israel remain governed by the hard right, which is vehemently opposed to any form of settlement and poses its own set of challenges. Any potential changes in Israel would likely encounter staunch opposition from the right, which could resort to violence and undemocratic methods. Furthermore, the Palestinian issue remains on the margins. To change that, concerted Arab, American, and Israeli efforts. 

They must also wisely and carefully support a renewed Palestinian Authority committed to durable peace. The role of Russia, which is keen on hindering US efforts in the region, and this will perhaps eventually be true for China, should not be overlooked either. On the other hand, Western and Arab countries do not want the war in the Gaza Strip to escalate and set the region alight. 

However, rifts are deepening with time, and the pace of the "mini-wars" across the region is intensifying. Time is also not on the side of the Biden administration, which is set to face a fierce electoral contest, be it against Donald Trump, if he manages to secure the Republican nomination, or Nikki Haley. Biden needs a significant breakthrough that marks his presidency, as a Trump victory could upend everything, including the situation in the Middle East and the accomplishments of his administration. Achieving a breakthrough will certainly be challenging, it can only be achieved by pressuring Israel. That pressure is unlikely to include a halt in military, financial, or diplomatic support, particularly at international fora at a time when it is isolated and has been ordered to prevent genocide by the International Court of Justice. 

Biden's viable only option might be to immediately recognize the Palestinian state, leaving Netanyahu's government to deal with a fait accompli. This scenario is not far-fetched, as the Biden administration has already paved the way for this through its explicit support for a two-state solution. 

The most notable statement in this regard was made by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Speaking about Arab-Israeli relations and their link to a political solution for the Palestinians: “We determined that the best approach was to work toward a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people... "It is President Biden's firm conviction that the best way to do that is two states with Israel's security guarantee." Will Biden dare to translate Sullivan's words into action?