How Saudi Ambitions Are Driving A New Middle East Peace Plan

Recognition of Israel by the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, against the promise of a Palestinian state, these are the principles of the outline of an Arab peace plan which is circulating. The United States plays a determining role in this “after” to be invented.

More than three months after the massacre of October 7, followed by the war in the Gaza Strip, the weapons are still speaking, and they alone. For the first time, however, a draft peace plan is circulating in diplomatic circles. We are still in the principles, informal, far from the beginning of commitment of the belligerents.

But the very existence of these first leads shows that reflection is at work, behind the scenes, for the “after”, when the weapons, in one way or another, will have fallen silent. It may take a few more weeks, but that time will come. And we will have to put the pieces back together, even if it seems impossible.

These proposals revolve – and this is the most interesting – around the role of Saudi Arabia. This powerful kingdom was on the verge of recognizing Israel on the eve of October 7, a process frozen since the Hamas attack and the Israeli war. Since then, Saudi Arabia has remained very discreet, even refusing any escalation with Iran, until recently its mortal enemy. It would be called upon to play a determining role in ending the crisis.

The principles are simple: the recognition of Israel by the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, guardian - let us remember - of the holy places of Islam; in exchange for an “irreversible” commitment from Israel to allow the birth of a Palestinian state. The wealthy Gulf monarchies would also play an important role in rebuilding Gaza and supporting a revived Palestinian Authority. The first step would be a ceasefire and the release of hostages still in Hamas hands.

These ideas have the support of the United States, which is very much involved in the preparation of the "after", if only to make part of American and world opinion forget the extent of their support for Israel in this war.

In Paris, we confirm these options, and we even encourage Saudi Arabia to “hold firm” in its new demand for a Palestinian state in exchange for recognition of Israel. This is the only way to emerge from a major crisis on top.

Obstacles are obviously not lacking

Starting with the fierce hostility of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to any Palestinian state project – and he undoubtedly has a large majority of Israelis behind him on this point. A second problem would be the attitude of Hamas, which has until now been hostile to the recognition of Israel, and which now has significant support among the Palestinian population. As long as these two players remain dominant, the path is blocked.

But nothing is set in stone, and it would be enough for this plan to be formalized and to bring together enough international support to make it credible, to begin to change the situation.