ARAB AND WORLD
Sat 20 Jan 2024 7:35 pm - Jerusalem Time
Israel is in a dilemma where its goals of releasing the hostages and destroying Hamas have failed
The New York Times on Saturday quoted some Israeli leaders as saying that the two main goals of the Israeli government, namely “eliminating Hamas and freeing the hostages,” are incompatible. “To eradicate Hamas, the military establishment will have to engage in a long war that will likely cost the lives of the hostages.”
After more than a hundred days of war, experts believe that “the limited progress made by Israel in dismantling Hamas has raised doubts within the senior military leadership about the feasibility of achieving Israel’s main wartime goals in the short term: eliminating Hamas and also liberating the Israeli hostages who cannot still in Gaza.”
The report notes that Israel has only established control over a much smaller portion of Gaza at this stage of the war than it originally envisioned in battle plans from the beginning of the invasion, which were reviewed by The New York Times. “This slower than expected pace has prompted some leaders to privately express their frustration with the civilian government’s strategy in Gaza, and led them to conclude that the freedom of more than 100 Israeli hostages still in Gaza can only be secured through diplomatic, not military, means,” according to the newspaper.
“The dual goals of freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas are now incompatible, according to interviews with four senior military commanders,” who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak publicly about their personal views.
“There is also significant disagreement over the length of time Israel will need to completely eliminate Hamas – an arduous and time-consuming process in its fight from underground tunnels – and the pressure Israel’s allies are applying to quickly end the war amid mounting civilian deaths.”
The generals also said that the long battle aimed at completely dismantling Hamas would likely cost the lives of Israeli hostages who have been held in Gaza since October 7, when Hamas militants invaded Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people, including 311 soldiers, according to Israeli statements, and taking about 240 prisoners, according to the generals' Israeli estimates.
Hamas released more than 100 hostages in the last week of last November, but said it would not release the others unless Israel agreed to completely stop hostilities. It is believed that most of the remaining hostages are being held by Hamas cells hiding inside the underground tunnel fortress that extends hundreds of miles below the surface of Gaza.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief serving in the war cabinet, on Thursday revealed a rift within the government when he said in a television interview that it was an “illusion” to believe that hostages could be rescued alive through military operations. .
“The situation in Gaza is such that the goals of the war have not yet been achieved,” Eisenkot said, adding: “For me, there is no dilemma. The mission is to save civilians before killing the enemy.”
This strategic impasse has exacerbated the military's frustration with the indecision of Israeli civilian leadership, according to the four commanders.
The commanders said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ambiguity about the post-war plan for Gaza was at least partly responsible for the impasse the army faces on the battlefield.
“Netanyahu has not yet made clear how Gaza will be governed after the war — and leaders said that without a long-term vision for the Strip, the army will not be able to make short-term tactical decisions about how to seize the parts of Gaza that it will control. The southern part of Gaza, which is located on the Egyptian border, will require greater coordination with Egypt, but three of the leaders said that Egypt is unwilling to participate without guarantees from Israel regarding the post-war plan,” according to the newspaper.
The generals fear that a long campaign - without a post-war plan - will erode any remaining support from Israel's allies, limiting their willingness to supply additional ammunition.
Foreign leaders have been alarmed by the death toll caused by the Israeli campaign: more than 24,000 Gazans were killed in the war, according to health authorities in the Strip, sparking accusations of genocide. Gaza officials did not mention the number of fighters killed, "but Israeli military officials say the number includes more than 8,000 fighters."
Families of hostages are becoming more vocal about the need to free their relatives through diplomacy rather than force. Some hostages taken in Gaza have since been declared dead - and it is not yet clear whether they were killed accidentally by Israeli forces or by Hamas.
Of the more than 100 hostages freed since the start of the invasion, only one was freed in a rescue operation. All the others were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners and detainees during a short truce in November.
By focusing its efforts on destroying the tunnels, the army risks making mistakes that could cost the lives of more Israeli citizens. Three Israeli hostages were killed by their own soldiers in December, despite waving a white flag and chanting in Hebrew.
The newspaper quotes Andreas Krieg, a war expert at King's College London, as saying that "basically, it is a state of stalemate." "It's not an environment where you can free hostages," he added.
"If you went into the tunnels and tried to free them with special forces, or whatever, you would kill them," Dr. Craig said. “You either kill them directly or indirectly, in booby traps or in an exchange of gunfire.”
Many of the tunnels have been destroyed, but if the remaining tunnels are left intact, Hamas will remain virtually undefeated, making it less likely that the group will release the hostages under any circumstances without a complete ceasefire.
The remaining alternative is a diplomatic settlement that could include the release of hostages in exchange for the release of thousands of Palestinians detained by Israel, along with a cessation of hostilities.
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Israel is in a dilemma where its goals of releasing the hostages and destroying Hamas have failed