One hundred days and difficult decisions

Someone has to tell the truth, no matter how hard it is. I have said since the first week of this damned war that the only way to return all the kidnapped people alive is through a deal with Hamas - “all for all” - all the kidnapped people for all the Palestinian prisoners. That's the deal. Now, 100 days into the war, it is difficult to digest that there are still 136 hostages being held by Hamas somewhere in Gaza. 

After all the killing and destruction that lasted for a hundred days - both in Israel and in Gaza, Hamas, which at the beginning of the war demanded "all for all", is now also demanding an end to the war and Israel's withdrawal to the international border... and without Israel agreeing to these demands, there will be no agreement. 

From my experience in negotiations with Hamas, as well as from the messages I received from Qatar, from Egypt, and from Hamas men themselves - this is the deal. According to Israel, today at least 20 of the kidnapped are no longer alive (including Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin), and it is not known how many of the kidnapped will survive until their release - every day in captivity puts their lives in danger.

There are Israelis, including heads of state and the army, who believe that if Israel succeeds in eliminating the leaders of Hamas - the Sinwar brothers, Muhammad Daf, Marwan Issa and others - all the kidnapped people will be released. I do not believe that eliminating Hamas leaders will automatically lead to the release of all the kidnapped people. Like many others, I assume that the Hamas leaders surrounded themselves with hostages as human shields, and if Israel found them, in the battle between them, many of the hostages would be killed along with the Hamas leaders.

There will be no victory for Israel if the kidnapped people do not return home alive. Too many of them have been killed there already, and we have no idea how many more will be killed. 

The return of the kidnapped people must be the most important task even before the death of Hamas. This is Israel's moral responsibility to return them after it abandoned them in their homes, bases, and at the Nova Festival. 

Military victory over Hamas can wait, but the kidnapped cannot wait. Much of what is said to the families of the kidnapped and what the public tells us, takes me back to the days of Gilad Shalit's residency. “We are turning over every stone,” they tell us, “and hundreds of people are working 24/7 to bring back the kidnapped people.” I do not know whether this is true or not, but it seems that the goals of the war since the first round of hostage release are now the defeat of Hamas and not the return of the hostages. 

Perhaps the reason for this is that the price demanded by Hamas is incomparably higher than the Israeli government's willingness to pay. If this is true, it seems that Israel has already decided not to conduct negotiations in good faith, or to conduct negotiations for an indefinite period and rely solely on military operations to rescue them from captivity. 

There is no doubt that a successful search and rescue operation is the best outcome for Israel. But 100 days later, the IDF succeeded in rescuing one of the kidnappers alive, and 136 Israelis remained captive in real and increasing danger to their lives.

The truth is that the price demanded by Hamas is very high, and even dangerous. There are approximately 8,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, of whom 559 are serving life sentences for killing Israelis. There are also about 130 Hamas terrorists captured in Israel after the October 7 massacre, and hundreds of Hamas fighters who have been transferred from Gaza to Israel since the beginning of the war. Israel continues to arrest hundreds of Palestinians from the West Bank every week.

In discussions among security personnel about the conditions for releasing prisoners if an agreement is reached, there are those who call for the most dangerous killers to be deported abroad, including those who killed hundreds of Israelis. Some support sending all prisoners to Gaza, but there they may join Hamas forces later in the war. In my opinion, they should all be released to the West Bank, where there is greater possibility of following them up and monitoring their actions. 

As in previous deals, all prisoners will have to sign a pledge not to return to terrorism. Obviously their obligation should not be relied upon, but this may provide a legal basis for their re-arrest if they breach this obligation. Prisoners to be released will be easier to hold in the West Bank than in Gaza or abroad. This is a large number of released prisoners, which will require a large number of people to supervise them. For this task, it will be possible to recruit people from among Shin Beit employees who will be unemployed after the prisons are emptied of prisoners. 

From past experience, many released prisoners do not return to terrorist activity. Many of them prefer to spend the rest of their lives with family members - spouse, children and grandchildren - or invest their time and energy in work and developing a new career. Not all of them are dangerous, and those who are can be treated after the kidnappers return. The most dangerous prisoners, if they return to terrorist activity, can be eliminated before they can cause any harm.

There is no doubt that the deal will constitute a landslide victory for Hamas, and this will have local and regional consequences. Therefore, this victory must be short-lived, and the war may resume after the kidnappers return. There is nothing sacred or binding in the agreement between Israel and Hamas. Both Hamas and Israel have proven this in the past. Hamas has violated the agreement for the first round of hostage release. Israel violated the Shalit deal by arresting about 70 of its editors in 2014. Hamas's popularity will skyrocket after the release of about 8,000 prisoners, both in Palestine and throughout the Arab world. 

Israel will be free to renew the war until it ends by eliminating Hamas' ability to control Gaza and dismantling the military apparatus that threatens Israel's citizens. 

In order to deal with Hamas' growing popularity, the international community, including Israel's neighbors, must put intense pressure on Israel to end the occupation and form a Palestinian government controlling the West Bank and Gaza Strip. 

The Palestinians must reform their political home, unite their forces in favor of peace with Israel, eliminate corruption, and gain legitimacy in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Talk about the establishment and actual existence of a Palestinian state should be removed from the negotiating table, and Israel should be stripped of its veto power in this regard. At the same time, the international community, including the OECD countries led by the United States of America, must recognize the State of Palestine and allow its admission into the United Nations as a member state. 

These steps will give victory to the Palestinians who understand that they must live in peace with Israel. The only way the Palestinians will win elections and respect is only if Israel provides security.

It took five years until about 80% of the public in Israel were willing to support the Shalit deal. Today, our abductees have only five years to wait for this support. The government must make difficult decisions now. Members of the government must approve the deal despite all the risks it entails. After the citizens of Israel lost confidence in the state’s protection of them when needed, after it abandoned them on October 7, failure to return the kidnapped people safely to their homeland will cause irreparable harm to Israeli society for many generations. 

The Israeli government has a paramount duty to return all abductees immediately, without any delay. 

According to the messages I received from Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas, this is the deal that will bring them home. The decision regarding it is one of the most difficult decisions that the State of Israel has faced, but I see no other option but to accept it.