Israeli opinion: Unfortunately, it seems that Hamas is going nowhere

By Nahum Barnea

Call the plan to free the hostages whatever you want - the Qatari proposal, the Egyptian proposal, or the American proposal - all of these suggestions indicate that the Israeli side is beginning to come to terms with the limited consequences of the war. According to my information, there is no deal yet. We have to hope there is a deal. However, as 100 days have passed since failure and devastation, there is no escape except by seeing reality as it is. There are readers who refuse to accept this description of reality, and this is their right. I believe that the army leadership has begun to understand well. The question now is how Netanyahu and the ministers will deal with the gap between the irresponsible expectations they have created among the public, and the difficult decisions they have to make. Don't envy them.

The talk is about a 3-month ceasefire agreement. Implementation will be gradual, and will include the liberation of all hostages, living and dead, in stages. The first phase will be humanitarian - freeing the sick, injured and elderly. In addition to the liberation of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, both officials and non-officials, there are other demands: a significant increase in humanitarian aid to the Strip; Return of residents to the northern areas of Gaza; Withdrawal of army forces; Building an administration with international funding to reconstruct the Gaza Strip after the demolition - and worst of all, the participation of “Hamas” in controlling the Gaza Strip in the future.

The Israeli side would have been happy to allow the Hamas leadership, including Sinwar and Deif, to go into exile in Qatar, or to any other country. Exile is what Arafat and his men got in Beirut, during the First Lebanon War. But Gaza is not Beirut, and Sinwar is not Arafat. He does not appear to be looking for exile now - he is planning victory celebrations in Gaza.

Circumstances can change during negotiations. The collapse of negotiations is also possible. However, the difficult question is the following: Does the hope of life for 136 Israelis justify these prices? I say yes, and not just because they were kidnapped from their homes, and the government and the army are responsible for the unparalleled failure, they were abandoned before and during October 7. When Netanyahu meets with the families of the hostages, he emphasizes accompanying his wife, as if the conversation was about poor people who needed Mother Teresa and the kindness that only women had in the ancient world. In my view, this is a crisis. President Biden can meet hostages; As for Netanyahu, he is responsible for their situation. This is his job.

At the political and military levels, there are those who prefer to ignore the hostage issue. The claim there is that the hostages are a burden: preoccupation with them hinders the forces in the field and strengthens Hamas. It is better to come to terms with their fate and move on. This position is prominent among the Messianic "religious Zionism" movement. For some of them, the events of October 7 are not a disaster, but a historic opportunity: Israel will occupy Gaza, expel the population and settle the Jews; If another front opens in the West Bank, we will expel the Palestinians from there as well.

This trend is prominent in combat units in the army. I'm saying this for their own good. But this does not mean that they are allowed to fill the walls with graffiti calling for a return to Gush Katif. The army does not succeed in controlling their political impulse.

Another, worse story, concerns General Barak Hiram, who, on October 7, gave orders to the tank to bomb a building in which there were hostages with “Hamas terrorists.” She killed 12 hostages. This was revealed by the New York Times, and the army is now investigating the case. Members of the alert ranks of Kibbutz Be'eri demanded that his appointment as commander of the Gaza Battalion be postponed until the investigations are completed. The army refused. As stated in “Deception 22” by Joseph Heller, the one who bombed the kibbutz people would be the officer in charge of them.

Hiram is a resident of the Tekoa settlement, which adds a political dimension to the case. In my opinion, it does not matter where he lives - what matters is what he thinks. In this war, the army talks a lot about killing soldiers and civilians under the pretext that there is no other solution. This is what happens on the battlefields. This argument is not always convincing.

No wheat, no Torah

The fate of the hostages is not the only thing preventing the army from occupying Gaza. Sometimes, the hostages are the explanation, and sometimes the argument: not everyone who wears a chain around his neck, or wears a yellow badge on his uniform, is actually conscripted for them.

The cabinet was supposed to discuss on Wednesday evening the vision for the future of Gaza - Gaza the next day. At the last minute, the issue was removed from the agenda: there were those who remembered that deliberations in The Hague regarding the lawsuit filed by South Africa would begin, and who knew how leaks from within the session would affect the deliberations.

A small story, but it teaches a lot: Israel's current government cannot manage a war. It is torn between Smotrich and Ben Gvir on one side, Biden and Blinken on the other, and Gantz and Eizenkot in the middle. Netanyahu discussed with Blinken the entry of 150 tons of wheat into Gaza. This contradicts everything Netanyahu committed to the public at the beginning of the war. The deliberations took place without informing the cabinet ministers. Netanyahu gave a half-reply, and Blinken felt despair, so he decided to thank Netanyahu, publicly, in front of the cabinet for the wheat. The Prime Minister's Office was quick to deny. The result: The Americans do not believe him, the cabinet ministers do not believe him, no wheat, and no Torah.

Unfortunately, it seems that Hamas is going nowhere. Its role in dismantling will come in the next rounds, when it breaks the agreement (and it will break it). If there was an opportunity to establish a non-jihadist alternative in Gaza, and I doubt it, the Israeli government has rejected it.

However, the hostages will return to their homes, and the army will devote itself to the northern front. It is possible for the Israelis to devote themselves to arranging the internal house. This is what Rauma Kadam, whose 5 members of her family were killed, said and promised to Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Her statements must be placed on the doors of the offices of the Prime Minister and the Chief of Staff. This is what will happen in the best case scenario. In a bad scenario, there will be no agreement, and the army will be stuck in Gaza without a plan, versus two million displaced people with nowhere to go, versus a hostile world and a tired American administration, with hostages that will not last, and residents who have been evacuated from their homes and will not return, with... An economic crisis, inflated budgets, and a political system preoccupied with itself.

In the end, as in every Hollywood movie, there will be a happy ending. I just don't know what it is.