A senior US administration official said on Thursday evening that the White House does not know when Israel plans to move to a less severe phase of its retaliation against Hamas, adding that the war may continue until the end of 2024.

Brett McGurk, the National Security Council's senior Middle East official, held a Zoom briefing with several experts on Thursday, during which he discussed the Biden administration's thinking on the ongoing conflict. Three people familiar with the 45-minute conversation said McGurk was frank about what the United States knows and does not know.

“We don’t know when that shift will happen,” McGurk said, though the senior aide noted that they saw encouraging signs that Israel is moving toward less intense operations, specifically the withdrawal of five combat brigades from Gaza, according to Politico.

In recent days, the administration has reportedly breathed a sigh of relief that Israel will no longer carry out the massive bombing operations, which led to the death of 22,500 Palestinians and the displacement of 85% of Gaza's population of 2.3 million people. But McGurk's candor suggests that the administration has yet to see any concrete sign of a tactical shift, and that there is little visibility into when change will occur — despite public administration confidence and urging behind closed doors.

McGurk, citing Israeli officials, added that the conflict may continue for a long time, perhaps until the end of the year. Israeli officials have said publicly that they expect the war to continue for several months.

Politico indicated that this may increase the chances of the war spreading beyond its borders, which could drag America into a sprawling regional conflict. The military is already formulating plans to respond to Iranian-backed Houthi militants attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, and devising ways to anticipate and repel potential attacks on the United States by Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria.

McGurk said there was also a discussion about Palestinians returning to their homes in northern Gaza, an area that has been devastated by Israel's months-long bombing campaign, in part because military operations there have dwindled as Hamas has been "dismantled" there. . This reflects the language used by Israeli officials.

He also said that the United States was discussing this possibility with the United Nations but was aware that many homes had been destroyed or rendered unlivable. One idea is to train about 6,000 members of a Palestinian security force, but this would require about eight to ten months.

There were no specifics in the briefing, and McGurk covered much of what administration officials have been saying publicly, including emphasizing the humanitarian crisis and the need to find ways to enable Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza. However, it was made clear to those familiar with McGurk's comments that the United States is less aware of Israel's intentions than it lets on, even though it has gathered intelligence on Israel's war behavior. “They don't know,” the third person said of the main theme of the conversation.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant on Thursday laid out Israel's plans for the next phase of the war, saying there would be a scaled-down "new combat approach" in northern Gaza. When the fighting ends, a member of the military cabinet proposed that Israeli forces maintain security in the Strip while a Palestinian entity administers the enclave. However, Gallant did not reveal many details.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will seek to get more out of his counterparts during his visit to the Middle East that begins Friday — his fourth regional stop since the Oct. 7 attacks — which includes stops in Israel, the West Bank, Qatar and Egypt. While he will certainly discuss the issues raised by McGurk, the main reason for the top diplomat's visit is to prevent violence from widening and deepening across the Middle East.

“He will discuss specific steps the parties can take, including how to use leverage with others in the region to avoid escalation,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Thursday.