Netanyahu replies to Biden by assassinating Al-Arouri in Beirut

By Ibrahim Rayhan

The assassination of the deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau in Lebanon, Saleh Al-Arouri, yesterday evening became the biggest announcement of the intention of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on Lebanon by admitting that the air force had targeted the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since the July 2006 war. The eye now is on the party’s response. Which is likely to be nothing less than targeting Tel Aviv based on the Beirut versus Tel Aviv equation that was drawn up by the party and has not been implemented until now.

Events have continued in recent days, indicating an increase in the level of escalation on the southern border between the Israeli army and the party. The belt of fire launched by Israeli occupation aircraft on Kafr Kila and Maroun al-Ras was not the first, and it will not be the last.

In a broader look at the region’s seas, two prominent events emerged:

The first: was the announcement of the withdrawal of the US aircraft carrier Gerald Ford from the Mediterranean Sea.

As for the second: Iran announced the arrival of the destroyer “Alborz,” equipped with long-range cruise missiles, to the waters of the Red Sea and its settlement near “Bab al-Mandab,” where Washington is gathering an international force to stop Houthi operations there.

Events are moving at a speed that rivals the scenes of Egyptian-Qatari diplomacy, which is trying to extinguish the fire in Gaza before it rages throughout the entire region. The two parties to the war, Hamas and Israel, are still clinging to mutual demands that can only be described as a “sounding defeat” for the party that accepts them.

Events have continued in recent days, indicating an increase in the level of escalation on the southern border between the Israeli army and Hezbollah.

The last chapter of the negotiations was when the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sanwar, sent a list of demands that were met with Israeli rejection. Al-Sanwar called for a three-stage negotiation:

1- In the first phase, Israeli forces withdraw from the incursion into the Gaza Strip in exchange for the movement’s release of 40 Israeli prisoners (the remaining women and men over the age of 60 who suffer from critical health conditions).

2- In the second stage, launching negotiations to exchange military prisoners in exchange for “zeroing in Israeli prisons.”

3- The third stage is entitled to establish a permanent ceasefire.

Israeli Mossad chief David Barnea discussed Sinwar's offer with the "War Cabinet," which rejected the demands.

The Qatari negotiators consider that the negotiations are still ongoing even if Tel Aviv rejects these demands, albeit slowly and with difficulty, and that the coming days will witness mutual offers from Tel Aviv and Hamas, and they may reach common ground on which they can build to stop the war as quickly as possible, and try to prevent the fire from escalating throughout the entire region, starting with Lebanon.

Biden to Netanyahu: The call is over...

But what is happening in the region? Is Lebanon in the eye of Netanyahu's storm?

To answer this question, we must return to the recent call between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Axios website, which is close to US national security circles, reported that the communication was stormy, and the disagreement between the two sides was over the “day after” the war, and over Biden’s objection to Netanyahu’s refusal to transfer tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority. The divergence of views between the master of the White House and the prime minister in crisis at war prompted the former to cut off the call, saying: “The conversation is over,” in an unprecedented step between the decision-makers in Washington and Tel Aviv.

But another reason that was not announced was a major point of disagreement between the two sides. According to an official source in the US National Security Office, Lebanon was present in the call. Netanyahu was insisting on the necessity of “dealing a joint strike against the party in Lebanon.” As for Biden, it was clear that his administration remains committed to its position of rejecting expanding the scope of the war and dragging it towards a direct confrontation with Iran.

The Qatari negotiators consider that the negotiations are still ongoing even if Tel Aviv rejects these demands, albeit slowly and with difficulty, and that the coming days will witness mutual offers from Tel Aviv and Hamas.

Why did Biden withdraw the aircraft carrier?

Netanyahu's intransigence towards Lebanon prompted Washington to leak the news of the "aircraft carrier withdrawal" from the Mediterranean. The explanation for this step is as follows:

First: Washington announced that it is not satisfied with any offensive step taken by Netanyahu against Lebanon. This was after Gerald Ford's arrival in the region was a message of deterrence to Iran and Hezbollah, according to what US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on the eve of the start of the war on the Gaza Strip.

Second: Biden is trying to pressure Netanyahu internally and on the ground to submit to the White House’s requests regarding “the day after the war” and “not expanding its scope.”

Third and most important: All joint maneuvers in recent years between the American and Israeli armies simulated that America defends and Israel attacks. This withdrawal puts Tel Aviv in a difficult field position, especially if Iran exploits it to increase the level of its factions’ strikes against Israel, especially after the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in Syria, Brigadier General Reza Mousavi, who has resided in Syria since 1987, and supervises the transfer of weapons to the party and the factions. Pro-Iranian. In addition to this, the almost daily targeting of Iranian bases in Syria.

The American source also indicates that Iran has delivered a message to America over the past few days stating that “the operations of the Axis of Resistance factions against American targets may not remain as they are if Israel launches an operation against the party, and that Tehran may find it difficult to deter the factions from Targeting American bases in the Gulf and Jordan.

Israel quickly responded to America's move. Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that the presence of the aircraft carrier did not affect the course of the conflict in Gaza, and that the end of the war was not on the horizon.

I expected that "the United Kingdom and the United States would issue an unprecedented statement giving the Houthis a choice between stopping attacking commercial ships or confronting the military power of the West."

Displacement versus displacement

In the field, the Israeli Air Force launched violent strikes on the towns of Maroun al-Ras, Kafr Kila, Markaba, and Hula.

The raids were different this time. It targeted the heart of the towns, the most violent of which was the “ring of fire” in Kafr Kila, which led to the death of 3 party fighters from the town. Reading these raids does not mean that Israel wants to lure a violent response from the party against civilian targets, using it as a pretext to expand strikes on Lebanon. To this day, the party is still responding with the “classical geographic beam” to the same rhythm since October 8.

Tel Aviv is also implementing the “displacement for displacement” equation, after tens of thousands of Israelis were displaced from the settlements in the north. This explains the Israeli violence towards Lebanese towns.

These indicators were received by the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, who visited the base of his forces operating within the UNIFIL forces in Deir Kifa, 10 km from the confrontation line between Israel and Hezbollah, where Lecornu announced to 700 soldiers before sharing the “New Year’s” dinner with them that “our mission can be achieved.” "It could become very dangerous." He added: "Our path will be strewn with doubts in the coming weeks and days, and all of this continues to plunge us into an abyss."

Le Drian and Hockstein on the line of "calm down"

The French minister anticipated two possible visits by the American presidential envoys, Amos Hochstein, and the Frenchman, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

The two envoys, whose dates have not yet been set, are trying to defuse tension in southern Lebanon. The American carries with him a proposal about the land borders and Israel’s withdrawal from the northern part of the town of Ghajar, and the Lebanese establishment of the B1 point in Ras Naqoura, and in his belief that it may push the party to withdraw from the Gaza battle.

As for the Frenchman, it is likely that he will present a political proposal for the party, in coordination with the Americans, rather than the Five-Year Committee. It is not clear what the French offer is, unlike the American one.

However, the deputy secretary-general of the party, Sheikh Naeem Qassem, anticipated the two offers two days ago and said: “Israel is putting forward many proposals related to northern Palestine and southern Lebanon in order to carry out a performance that will help the settlers return to the north in a safe way, and to keep the party away from the south until they are reassured.”

Qassem added: “Israel cannot return the settlers to the north in the heart of the battle, and it cannot obtain any gain in this battle or at its end. It must first stop the war in Gaza in order to stop the war in Lebanon, and with the persistence in bombing civilians in Lebanon, this means that the response "It will be stronger and will be proportional to the Israeli aggression."

  The Red Sea.. Iran, America and Britain

No sooner had the media reported the news of the departure of the American aircraft carrier from the White Sea, than news came of Iran entering the Red Sea. What is happening there is no less dangerous than what is happening here. The British newspaper The Times reported that London is preparing, in coordination with Washington, to launch strikes against the Houthi militias in Yemen.

The newspaper quoted an official source as saying, “The British army will join the United States and perhaps another European country to launch a barrage of missiles against pre-specified targets either at sea or in Yemen itself, where the Houthis are based.” It quoted the source as saying, "Coordinated strikes could include, for the first time, carried out by British Royal Air Force aircraft or the destroyer HMS Diamond."

I expected that "the United Kingdom and the United States would issue an unprecedented statement giving the Houthis a choice between stopping attacking commercial ships or confronting the military power of the West." The source explained to the newspaper that the statement would be the “last warning” to the Houthis, adding: “If they do not respond, the response is likely to be limited but noticeable.”

The Iranian response to the British move came in two parts:

The first: Last Sunday, the Houthis attacked an American battleship with cruise missiles and attack boats. The US Navy was able to sink 4 boats and kill 10 of the attackers.

Second: Iran’s announcement of the arrival of the destroyer “Alborz” to Bab al-Mandab.

Thus, the region became ready for a fierce war. Diplomacy is trying to remove the burning fuse, which is now on the verge of gunpowder piled up inside the barrel. It is likely that Netanyahu will not leave the premiership before turning the tide, or at least trying to turn it. The Al-Aqsa flood changed the whole scene, and it became almost impossible to return to what was before October 7. As for the clarity of the scene, it requires the dust of many battles to settle, raids to break out, missiles and drones to fly, and more blood to flow, not least of which is the assassination of Al-Arouri, for his image to become clear.

Assas Media