After about 3 months of war on Gaza, Israel has become in a state of limbo, not knowing exactly what it is heading towards in the Strip. It seems that a war without a clear end or achieving tangible results is what Benjamin Netanyahu, the desperate Prime Minister, wants to prolong the war as much as possible in order to escape. From accountability and imprisonment, which will be the day after the war stops.

How did Netanyahu lose sight of the next day in the Strip?

After 3 months of battles, there are no good or clear options for the future of the Israeli war on Gaza, which has raised major goals since October 7, such as completely destroying the Hamas movement and liberating prisoners by military force.

But none of that was achieved. Hamas, as a military force, has not been defeated, and thousands of its fighters are still waging a war of attrition against the Israeli forces, and launching surprise operations from tunnels.

The Netanyahu government is still hesitant about what it will do regarding the future of its war on the Gaza Strip. Because it is unable to advance its declared goals in light of its heavy losses, and is still talking about unclear scenarios, such as reoccupying Gaza, which Washington rejects, or handing over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority, or managing the Gaza Strip by an international force, or forming a tribal force from within. The sector is under the control of the occupying power.

Although none of these options have yet been officially presented, the Palestinians are treating them with categorical rejection, especially with Arab warnings about the possibility of displacing the Palestinians and imposing the “Greater Israel” project on the ground.

Last week, Netanyahu's national security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, published an opinion article on the London-based Arabic website Elaph, saying that there will be a need for a moderate Palestinian ruling body that enjoys broad support and popularity. He added: "In its current form, the (Palestinian) Authority finds it difficult to do this, and it will require great effort and assistance from the international community as well as from the countries of the region, and we are ready for this effort." Hanegbi would not have written this without his boss's approval.

The Israeli prime minister appears stuck: the far-right parties that keep him in power are threatening to topple the government if the scope of the war is reduced and the Palestinian Authority is allowed to return to Gaza. Netanyahu said in mid-December that he "will not allow Fatah or Hamas to rule the Gaza Strip." He said in his account on the “X” website: “I will not allow Hamastan to be replaced by Fatehistan,” as he put it.

Netanyahu added in his speech about “ruling the Gaza Strip after the end of the war”: “We will not repeat the mistake of Oslo, and we will not allow again an environment in which Palestinian children are raised in the culture of eliminating Israel, and we will not return extremist parties to Gaza. The debate between Fatah and Hamas is about how to eliminate On Israel,” as he described it.

Scenarios for the future of Gaza “post-war” from the Israeli point of view

Last week, the Hebrew Channel 12 said, “There are several proposed Israeli scenarios for governing Gaza after the war, all without the presence of Hamas. They are summarized in the scenarios that the channel said were placed on the table of the Israeli decision-maker, and many discussions and debates are still taking place about them with the American administration: It is to place Gaza in the custody of the Palestinian Authority, or to create a government different from the two parties of authority in Ramallah or Gaza.

Regarding the first scenario, which was recently circulated in several media outlets, which is that the rule of the Gaza Strip would be transferred to the Palestinian Authority, the channel said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ruled out the return of the Authority, and stressed that he would not allow Israel to return to what he described as the “Oslo mistake.” Saying, "Gaza will not become Hamastan or Fatehistan."

The newspaper adds that, contrary to the positions in Israel, there are those who want the Palestinian Authority to replace Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said, at the end of the week, that “the Palestinian Authority has the ability to manage Gaza. Everyone knows its ability and strength to manage the West Bank.” “She did an amazing job – despite the challenges.”

Joe Biden stated that the "renewed" Palestinian Authority must eventually control the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. “The Palestinian Authority needs to be renewed,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. “This will require a great deal of work that will start with Abu Mazen — and depend on the Palestinian people.”

Channel 12 quoted the head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, Michael Milstein, as saying that he "did not notice a desire in the authority to rule Gaza, which means that it feels that it is not prepared and is afraid to enter into a difficult adventure."

The second scenario distances itself from the two parties of government, whether the Palestinian Authority or Hamas, and the channel says that it includes “the establishment of an alternative Palestinian authority to rule Gaza, relying on local tribal sources that do not belong to Hamas, and which are, for example, public figures, businessmen, tribal sheikhs, and mayors.”

It was estimated that this system would become responsible for providing services, while military control would remain in the hands of Israel. Milstein believes that it is possible that this local government system will also be subject to, or linked to, the Palestinian Authority, and external factors will support this step, including Egypt.

The channel also proposed a third alternative scenario, which is the establishment of a temporary regional regime led by the United States and with the participation of the countries of the region: Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, until its handover to the Palestinian Authority after a few years.

Given such a scenario, it is expected that Egypt will control the region with the cover of other countries, as the United Arab Emirates will provide assistance politically, Jordan will coordinate with the Palestinian Authority, and it is possible that Saudi Arabia will replace Qatar and help in the “peace process.”

The Hebrew channel adds that such a possibility is expected to face many obstacles and difficulty in coordinating the movement without creating gaps. Israel even insists that the IDF's security control over Gaza will continue after the war. The channel indicated that the proposed scenarios are still far from being resolved, as it quoted Milstein as saying that “there are no magic solutions for a quick settlement, and that there is a need for a clear strategy.”

According to Milstein, Gaza “is similar to Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime and the dismantling of the Baath Party and its structure by America,” and that Israel “realizes the difficulty of dismantling the structure of the Hamas movement.”

Milstein added: "This will also take a long time, will be exhausting and long-term, and it must also be taken into account that even if the Palestinian Authority returns to Gaza, Hamas will not disappear."

In the end, while Israel is lost in the maze of “the day after Gaza” and discusses it with the Americans or its Arab partners in the region, there is a certain understanding and acknowledgment on its part that Hamas is still managing the battle and fighting the Israeli army fiercely and inflicting heavy losses on it, and the idea of Hamas is deeply rooted in the Palestinian consciousness. It cannot be annihilated and destroyed.

Source: Arabic Post