Israeli Opinion| United States reducing its naval presence in the region does not bode well for Israel

By Amos Harel

The latest surprising development in this war came, specifically from the United States, as a report published by the ABC network stated that the American aircraft carrier, Gerald Ford, will leave the Middle East within the next few days to return to its port in Virginia, with a task force that includes additional battleships, and this is how it will remain. There is one American aircraft carrier in the region, the Dwight Eisenhower. The two aircraft carriers were deployed in the Mediterranean, near the Arabian Gulf, after the “terrorist” attack carried out by the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip on October 7, under direct orders from US President Joe Biden.

This intensive naval deployment, which includes two aircraft carriers with more than 150 warplanes, took place close to the date of Biden’s warning to the Iranian regime in which he forbade it from participating in the war, saying: “Don’t.” The goal behind Biden's move, at a time when Israel was in a dire situation, was to deter the Iranians from directly joining the war, and it was possible that it was also aimed at deterring Hezbollah from trying to launch a comprehensive attack on Israel.

But Iran did not sit quietly; Since October 8, Hezbollah has been waging a battle against Israel, launching drones from Lebanon, along with rockets and anti-tank missiles towards Israeli towns and military sites in the Galilee. As for the Houthis in Yemen, they launched more than 50 missiles and drones towards the Eilat region, with the encouragement of Iran, and systematically obstructed navigation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while Shiite militias in both Iraq and Syria launched drones and missiles towards the Israeli border, Starting from the Golan in the far north, all the way to Wadi Araba in the far south.

There is a fruitful dialogue between the United States and Iran, including secret and public messages. Perhaps the reduction of the US naval presence in the region has now been accompanied by a secret hint to Iran not to try to escalate the already tense situation, with one of two aircraft carriers leaving the region. In parallel, this step could be a wrong American bet that Hezbollah may interpret as an opportunity to further expand the scope of danger.

It is true that the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, began the attacks in the north in response to the war in the Gaza Strip, but so far he has been wary of being drawn into an all-out war with Israel. The dilemma here is that both sides are walking on the edge, and that the confrontation now also includes Iranian targets, in attacks attributed to Israel (although Israel itself does not claim official responsibility for these attacks).

Meanwhile, the United States is showing an increasingly assertive stance toward the Houthis; On Sunday, a Houthi attempt to attack a ship in the Red Sea was thwarted, and American ships sank boats carrying 10 Yemeni fighters. The international coalition to protect navigation in the region is beginning to establish itself, and there are reports that both the United States and Britain are considering launching a more systematic air campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen.

Reducing the US naval presence in the region does not bode well for Israel. Although American support for Israel in its war effort is widespread, the Netanyahu government does not enjoy unlimited American war credit, far from it. Recently, tense phone conversations took place between Biden and Netanyahu, most of which revolved around the latter’s dealings with the Palestinian Authority. Also, the series of statements issued by the extreme right in the government, which promise to encourage the displacement of the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip and the re-establishment of settlements there, do not, of course, contribute to strengthening Washington’s confidence in Israel’s intentions.