The day after the war...an unanswered question

A term that is widely circulated, not only at the level of the media dedicated to covering the war on Gaza, but also at the political level, where this “trend” is not absent from its activities related to the war.

In attempts to answer it, scenarios are being circulated, most of which, if not all, are imaginary, or deduced without certainty. Perhaps the most important reason for this is that the war, from its stark beginning on the seventh of October (October), to this day has been and continues to produce a series of recurring surprises. It was impossible for its direct and indirect parties to grasp its strings and determine its paths, including its results. Let us look at the positions and visions of the three direct parties that are waging the war, which are America, the funder, Israel, which is involved in an almost impossible agenda, and Hamas, which is resisting fiercely under the pressure of Israeli destruction and the resulting disastrous popular situation that it cannot close its eyes to.

The Americans are pressing Israel to answer the question of the day after the war, and they are talking about it with extreme caution, fearing that the clear position will affect the Israeli agenda, making the Americans responsible for stopping the war. This means a certain defeat for the Israeli agenda and a valuable victory for Hamas, which is sufficient for it to remain alive after everything that happened, to show off its strength in the streets of Gaza, a victory for its steadfastness and thwarting the enemy’s goals.

“Hamas”... which was forced to fight a fateful battle, and to fight at the maximum capacity of the men, equipment and tunnels it has, realizes that its war falls under the saying “oh killer...oh murdered.” If it relaxes and begins to think about survival at any cost, then that is... This means not only the loss of its rule over Gaza, but its exit as an influential figure in the Palestinian, Israeli, and regional equations, as what comes after the rule of Gaza is... asylum, displacement, and dispersion.

As for the third side of the war triangle, Israel, its position on the next day is distributed among all parties of the internal equation, the first of which is, of course, Netanyahu, who is waging the war as if he is waging an electoral battle that determines his political fate. He sees or speaks about the next day in the language of the victor, which will not only expel Hamas from Gaza, but will expel Gaza itself with a comprehensive change, geographically, demographically, and security-wise. This is why he is addressing his remaining voters in a way that keeps the bet on him, even if it is at its minimum.

Like the most extreme extremists of the extreme right in Israel, he adheres to an equation that seems illogical to his internal opponents. He wants it to be an open war for years, or at least until his last day in leadership of Israel. As for others, like Lapid, who is fighting Netanyahu relentlessly, he does not demand that he stop the war, but rather he holds him accountable for his negligence on October 7th, and for the floundering of his leadership, which brings certain disasters to Israel.

Between the two stands the biggest lurker, Gantz, who embraces the war as a general, and deals with its repercussions as a politician, preparing himself to head the government. His position has proven effective in providing a broad constituency that guarantees him a comfortable majority in the Knesset, if elections are held in this climate. General Gantz praises the IDF while remaining in the heart of the battle, and as a politician he strengthened his cards with the Americans, who saw in him the appropriate and inevitable leader.

Regarding this American, Hamas, and Israeli situation, who can determine the shape of the day after the war? How can it be? If this crazy war ends today, tomorrow, or the day after, who will deal with its effects, even to the minimum? Whoever proposes to govern Palestinians, regionally or internationally, how can he undertake such a task, without having in his hands a double-digit number of the billions needed to transform the Strip from a destroyed graveyard into a livable place?

Who would accept to go to Gaza as a director, governor, or even a paramedic, and his mission is to control the security of two and a half million Palestinians, all of whom live in an exceptional state, and on top of that, guarantee the security of Israel?

This is what is visible from the day or days following the war, so everyone avoids specifying conclusive answers for several reasons, the most important of which is that the next day is determined by the days that precede it, and this particular point no one knows.