Israeli Opinion| The seriousness of the ambiguous reality in the Gaza Strip

By Michael Milstein

The heads of government and the army in Israel announce that it is expected to move soon to Phase C of the war in Gaza. After taking control of the northern Gaza Strip and focused operations in Khan Yunis, a phase is being planned in which the pattern of fighting will change, as its strength will diminish, and ground maneuvering will be replaced by focused operations, mainly ground incursions and air attacks, which are supposed to take a long time and lead to the collapse of Hamas’ rule.

But the above description is vague and highly complex, which is unacceptable in Middle Eastern discourse that relies on one-dimensional facts. The third phase could turn into an ongoing war of attrition, especially if Israel does not succeed in striking the Hamas leadership, or in achieving the collapse of the movement, which has proven, after 86 days of fighting, its ability to wage a fierce confrontation even if the Palestinians pay a heavy bloody price.

For Hamas, the third phase could represent an opportunity. It will allow it to claim that it has not conceded, even if it turns into a defeated entity controlling a small enclave. In its view, this matter can present an image of victory, despite the unprecedented killing and destruction that befell the Gaza Strip, and the fact that half of the Gaza Strip is occupied by the Israeli army, but the fact that it has stood firm and continues to fight inside and outside Gaza, fulfills the principle of steadfastness.

Moreover, this ambiguous situation could continue for a long time, and make it difficult for Israel to establish a different reality in Gaza. The continuation of fighting in the Gaza Strip will not allow the establishment of a positive model in the north, different from the south. Hamas will seek to undermine any attempt to establish stable civilian control mechanisms in the Gaza Strip, and the Palestinian public will avoid cooperating with it as long as fighting continues in the Gaza Strip (even in the northern part, Hamas will try to continue its movement), and foreign investors will refrain from offering projects to a region suffering from Permanent instability.

The ambiguous reality can be seen as a problem in the region, whether from Israel’s enemies or from its friends who will interpret the complex situation as an obstacle to its strategic goals, and on the other hand, the success of “Hamas” in achieving the “resistance doctrine,” that is, breaking the Israeli effort. By showing long breath and endless fighting ability; Of course, all of this will make it difficult for Israel to restore its image of deterrence, and could increase tensions on other fronts, especially in the north.

Israel must reconsider the third stage. The only way to achieve its strategic goals in the war, most importantly the elimination of the military and authoritarian capabilities of Hamas, is to control the entire Gaza Strip, despite the time and price required to achieve such a scenario. But this will make Israel sure that it has destroyed all of the movement’s military infrastructure, severely hit its leadership, and that another regime will emerge in the border area between Gaza and Egypt. Only after that, can we try to establish another regime in Gaza.

Within this framework, it is very important for Israel to conduct an in-depth dialogue with the United States, its strong strategic ally, which is pushing for a rapid transition to the third phase, in light of concerns about the accumulation of harm to the Gazan public. In this context, it is important to explain to Washington the challenges involved in this stage, the most prominent of which is the lack of a clear military solution. In addition to the harm that could befall Israel, this will reflect negatively on the United States as well, in light of what will be considered a new failure of its ally in its confrontation with the Iranian-led resistance camp, and a kind of continuation of the bitter experience of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The October 7 theory demonstrated the need to refrain from entering into situations involving contradictions and lack of clarity. Entering into a hybrid phase could eventually lead, after great frustration, to the situation that Israel is trying to prevent at this stage, namely, controlling the entire Strip.