Israeli Opinion| We are approaching a critical juncture: the next day is here

Tal Lev Ram

Today, with the beginning of the year 2024, talk in Israel about the next day must begin now. Currently, the IDF is about to move to the next phase of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, while there are still unresolved issues, in particular regarding the northern front facing Hezbollah. 

The army needs a set of decisions from the political level and goal setting, in order to allow it to plan in detail for the next stages of the war in Gaza and in the northern arena. Establishing a mechanism for the next day, which in many ways can be called “the present day,” is not only a political need, especially in the south, and with regard to the tripartite relations between Israel, the United States, and Egypt, but it is also, for the army, a deep practical need to establish The goal of the battle is in the Southern Command.

Regarding the interconnectedness between the different combat zones, the timeline for progress in the Khan Yunis area brings us closer to moving to the next phase of the war in the south, during which fewer IDF divisions are expected to operate simultaneously in the Strip. This stage brings the political level closer to making the required decisions in the northern arena in confronting Hezbollah.

Yesterday, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem said that residents of the northern settlements can return to their homes only after Israel completely stops the war in Gaza. Although it is clear that the war in Gaza may last for many months. Hezbollah is hinting that even after Israel moves to the next phase of the war in southern Gaza, it plans to continue to maintain an effective battle front facing Israel, until a political solution is reached, which is not on the horizon at this stage.

For the political level in Israel, the point is that a critical turning point is approaching, such that it is not possible to continue to accept the security situation in the north of the country as a permanent situation for many months, and from here comes the possibility of a decision to be taken regarding significantly raising the degree and strength of the responses to Hezbollah, which will... It will lead to escalation and cause major unrest in the northern arena, which could turn into the central arena of war, as long as Hezbollah continues to fire on Israel, and as long as its forces do not withdraw back. They claim in the army that Hezbollah is paying prices, including the death of more than 130 fighters and damage to its military buildings, which are much greater than the damage it causes to Israel.

Even if there is some truth in this statement, it is not sufficient to change the strategic complexity that Hezbollah imposed on Israel, after the “terrorist” attack by Hamas on October 7.

Political criticism from the right and the opposition

We can understand the logic of the government’s decision-making, which calls for focusing on the war against Hamas, but on the other hand, it is clear that the situation emerging in the north as a result of the continuing fighting is an intolerable situation, even though, so far, between the use of force and Military, or using political means, there is no equation that can restore calm to the northern border with Lebanon, and at the same time, provide protection and a sense of security for the population. Hence, the distance of Radwan's forces from Hezbollah is a necessary condition.

Israel has made clear on several occasions that it prefers to try to resolve the situation politically, but when they talk about returning to Resolution 1701, this resolution includes future prices that Israel may have to pay. Also, making certain decisions could lead to political criticism of the Prime Minister from the right and the opposition, who will claim that Israel has submitted to Hezbollah’s blackmail.

So far, there is no immediate political solution on the horizon, and the method of using military force does not lead to restoring deterrence on the northern border. What is true now is that Hezbollah, at least in terms of statements, claims that it will not stop firing as long as the Israeli army continues its war. On Gaza. The IDF's transition to the next phase of the fighting in Gaza is taking place gradually, and is already having an impact on the ground. We advise all those who followed during the three months of fighting in the south, the maneuvering methods and the location of the Israeli army divisions in each stage, not to expect celebrations for the end of the second stage of fighting and the beginning of the third stage.

In the year 2024, which begins today, the coming months are expected to bring questions about the continuation of the war in Gaza, with a high possibility of deteriorating into war, or a major escalation in the confrontation with Hezbollah in the north. The central effort made by the Israeli army is in Khan Yunis, through the 98th Division, in which 7 brigades operate. This effort is what will lead to increased military pressure on senior Hamas officials above ground, especially underground, and an attempt to reach the movement's senior leaders. The intense military effort, according to the army's doctrine, is also supposed to lead to progress in releasing more kidnapped persons.

A buffer zone in the sector

In recent days, first signs have emerged, but it is too early to see more than that. In exchange for the army's central effort to continue to "cleanse" the northern Gaza Strip, with the exception of the Daraj al-Tuffah neighborhood, which has not been under operational control and is still witnessing battles. The increase in incidents in recent days against “saboteurs” in areas under the army’s control for a long time, such as Beit Lahia, or neighborhoods in the heart of Gaza City, is a good indication of the guerrilla warfare that the Israeli army is expected to face wherever its forces remain permanently.

The presence of fixed forces to protect the logistical supply axis that practically connects the north of the Strip to its south will continue in the next phase of the fighting, as will the plans related to the presence of forces securing the northern corridor, from the Erez area, passing through the beach, and up to the southernmost area in Gaza City. This presence in the field is what must provide flexibility for the army to carry out other operations in the coming months in the northern Gaza Strip...

Among the decisions that must be taken by the political level in the coming days are those related to the northern Gaza Strip in particular. Who will care for the civilian population remaining in Gaza City? Can people in the south return to the north? An issue that the Americans are expected to push to resolve, or should the current situation be maintained and pressure on Hamas from the Gazan population should be increased?

In addition to the central effort exerted by the army in Khan Yunis and in the center and south of the Gaza Strip, it is currently working to establish a buffer zone, hence the importance of the operations taking place in the Bureij, Al-Maghazi, Khirbet Khazaa and other camps.

In these areas adjacent to the border fence, and opposite the Israeli settlements, which were used as bases for the “terrorists” to launch their “terrorist” attack on October 7, the Israeli army is investing redoubled effort in demolishing the “terrorist” infrastructure, destroying the tunnels, and exposing the field towards A distance of one kilometer in order to allow the army to better control, monitor and improve the defensive capacity of the settlements.

In this style of fighting, the army advances, stage after stage, in dismantling the military capabilities of the enemy who does not want to surrender, even if the disaster it is causing in Gaza is clear in front of it, and even now, after 3 months of fighting, it is very difficult to see the end of the war.

What is certain is that without a political goal, it will be very difficult to continue the fight for a long time successfully, while the differences between the prime minister and other members of the cabinet are deepening, and political considerations are being favored, which today interfere in decision-making. All of these are discouraging indicators, in the face of... Months of long fighting lie ahead.