Although the normal date for the Israeli elections is in 2026, after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation shook the Israelis’ confidence in Netanyahu, calls began to escalate to isolate him and dismiss the Israeli government, but this matter requires an internal coup in Likud or the collapse of the government coalition.

A report by the Israeli newspaper Maariv says that in terms of strategic value: Is it right and wise to hold elections simultaneously with war? What if the Knesset was dissolved and Yahya Sinwar bragged by saying that “Netanyahu threatened to bring my head, and in the end I brought his head”? How will Israel manage a military campaign in the north amid a political campaign? What if submitting elections harms the management of the front against Hassan Nasrallah?

The second question is tactical: Who will press the button? Who will break up the government coalition alliance? The answer to this dilemma is not the best; It is an answer that does not provide a solution. But after October 7, there are no comfortable answers; but it is more disturbing, according to the newspaper.

The newspaper says that the principle that grants immunity to the ruler and the government as long as the war is ongoing characterizes authoritarian regimes. Neville Chamberlain and Joseph Stalin made a mistake in analyzing Adolf Hitler's intentions, just as Benjamin Netanyahu made a mistake in analyzing Sinwar's intentions. The British dismissed Chamberlain eight months after the outbreak of World War II.

As for the Russians, they were unable to dismiss Stalin. He continued to abuse, starve, kill, exile, and send his people to hard labor in labor camps. Therefore, when some claim today that the overthrow of Netanyahu and the dissolution of the Israeli government or the Knesset, or both, is tantamount to offering a gift to Hamas, it is like someone saying that the overthrow of Chamberlain was a gift to Hitler.

The prevailing dynamics in Israeli society call for the overthrow of the government. Since Israel's situation is closer to that of Britain at the beginning of World War II than to the Soviet Union, the public's influence will inevitably be focused on the political system.

The Israeli newspaper Maariv says that the best outcome as long as Israel is still fighting under a state of mistrust is to form a broad unity government without dissolving the Knesset and heading to elections, as proposed by Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman. But this step is impractical; Because it is unlikely that the Likud will include five rational men who support this step.

How will the Israeli government collapse?

Therefore, the practical question is: Who will take the initiative and call for early elections? The obvious answer at this moment is Itamar Ben Gvir. The leader of the Jewish Greatness Party has the ability to dismantle the government in two ways: by remaining or stepping down, and both measures seem to reinforce this step, with the possibility that his stay will be more influential than his resignation.

Bezalel Smotrich's hesitation regarding taxation of sugary drinks and disposable dishes, as well as the mismanagement of coalition funds, despite being publicly criticized, also indicate that the government's days are numbered.

Every moment in power is of great importance, hence the frustration of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish partners with Ben Gvir, who is accelerating the government's demise. His recent actions, such as announcing that the term of Israeli Prisons Commissioner Kathy Perry would not be extended (in violation of the plan to form a war government) indicate a trend in which only those who comply with him will retain their positions.

Netanyahu appeases Ben Gvir with state funds, and this may hasten the overthrow of the government

In the case of Ben Gvir, as in other cases, Netanyahu chose to manage the conflict by providing financial incentives from the Israeli state treasury to this provocative minister. Ben Gvir reached a clear conclusion that provocation is not only permissible, but necessary to fortify and expand his support base. With every statement Netanyahu issues, Ben Gvir escalates to another level of provocation.

Each rise increases popular opposition to the government and accelerates the possibility of the departure of Benny Gantz and Gideon Saar. When they step down, Ben Gvir will be ready to dismantle the government, after Netanyahu allows him to reach a position that only leads to elections.

Even if Ben Gvir wanted to stop at the last moment, he would face difficulties in curbing the dynamic he started.

The newspaper says that Netanyahu could have shown a little statesmanship by curbing this unruly minister; In any case, Ben Gvir would not have submitted his resignation during the war. Even if he chooses to resign, Gantz and Sa'ar will provide the government with the necessary majority until the end of the conflict. But what Netanyahu is doing is allowing Ben Gvir to cause problems that will worsen after six months of war.

When there is a clear majority in the public that does not trust the government, its days will be numbered. Whether because of Itamar Ben Gvir, or because of coalition actions in the wake of any future reservist protest, or for any other reason. And in 2024, someone is sure to push the button.