Professor Devi Sridhar, head of the Department of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, says that a quarter of the population of the Gaza Strip may die within a year due to disease outbreaks resulting from Israel's unprecedented war on the Strip.

In an article in the British Observer newspaper, Sridhar expressed the concern of public health organizations around the world, saying, “Not bullets or bombs. I have not seen these organizations as concerned about diseases as they are currently concerned about them in Gaza.”

World records

The writer said that this war set many world records, describing it to journalists as the bloodiest conflict in 30 years, and causing the largest individual loss of lives of United Nations employees in the organization’s history, adding that Gaza witnessed the worst number of attacks in the world on health care facilities. And its employees, and schools were destroyed, with 51% of educational facilities damaged.

She also pointed out that it is the deadliest conflict for children in recent times, “nearly 160 children were killed daily last November, according to the World Health Organization,” noting that the recent conflict in Syria recorded 3 deaths daily, two in Afghanistan, and in Ukraine. 0.7. She said that the number of children who had already been killed as of December 29 was more than 5,300, according to UNICEF.

It's just the beginning

Sridhar went on to say that these numbers will only be the beginning. By looking at similar conflicts around the world, public health experts know that we are likely to see more children die from preventable diseases than from bullets and bombs.

World Health Organization spokeswoman Dr. Margaret Harris was quoted as saying that in early November, diarrhea rates among children in camps in Gaza were more than 100 times normal levels.

Sridhar added that with no treatments available, children can become dehydrated and die quickly. Diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death in children under five years of age worldwide, and are caused by contaminated water and lack of access to oral rehydration fluids. Upper respiratory infections, chicken pox and painful skin diseases have increased, and there are fears that recent floods could lead to untreated sewage mixing with fresh water used for drinking and cooking, and causing a cholera outbreak.

Diseases played a major role in wars

Sridhar recalled that diseases played a major role in wars in past centuries. During the American Civil War, two-thirds of estimated soldier deaths were caused by pneumonia, typhoid, dysentery, and malaria. In 1994, cholera and dysentery, caused by unclean water and conflict zones, killed more than 12,000 Rwandan refugees in just 3 weeks in June 1994.

She explained that estimates indicate that 85% of the population of Gaza are already displaced, and experts who analyze previous refugee displacement cases in the British medical journal “The Lancet” estimate that the initial mortality rates (i.e. deaths per thousand people) were more than 60 times higher than they were. When each conflict started, on average.

Applying that equation to the current situation in Gaza, where the pre-conflict crude death rate was 3.82 in 2021 (relatively low due to the young demographic), death rates could reach 229.2 in 2024 if conflict and displacement continue at the current level of intensity, and continue to do so. Gazans lack access to sanitation, medical facilities and permanent housing.

Crude assessment

Ultimately, unless something changes, the author says, the world will face the possibility that nearly a quarter of Gaza's population of 2 million will die within a year. The causes of these deaths will largely be preventable health causes, as well as the collapse of the medical system. Sridhar commented that this is a crude estimate, but it is based on data, using the horrific true numbers of deaths in previous and comparable conflicts.

The author concluded her article by saying that she had never heard health and relief organizations as frank and concerned as they were about the level of suffering and deaths in Gaza. “It is an unprecedented, record-breaking, most tragic conflict, and while experts debate whether or not it is genocide, the reality is that we are witnessing the mass killing of populations, whether by bombs, bullets, hunger or disease.”

Source: Guardian