Gaza and lessons learned!

By Radwan Al-Sayed

Some may think that we are being hasty when we now talk about lessons learned from the great and tragic event in Gaza. Since only half of the event has passed, what comes after the war (if it truly has an end!), which is a period that may be long, is perhaps more important than what has passed since its horror and horror. However, observing the event from the Palestinian, Arab, regional and international insiders can allow contemplation and comparison to draw lessons or possibilities for consideration, according to Ibn Khaldun.

By the consideration that he frequently mentions in the last chapters of his introduction, Ibn Khaldun does not mean the lesson and the sermon, but rather the analogy and comparison between two events, because for him history takes place in cycles. But he comes back and says that history does not repeat itself.

Why did the war happen?

Let us look at Hamas, its nature, its internal decision-making, and the parties that influence it and it. Many have mentioned that things have developed within it after the events in Syria. The leadership at the time refused to help the Syrian regime despite Iranian pressure. Therefore, when the Hamasites wanted to restore relations through the mediation of the party and Iran, they had to change the political leadership. The prominence of Ismail Haniyeh increased, then decreased, creating an almost separation between the political and military leadership, and the military leadership is what created the current war. In addition, because Hamas is preparing to lead the Palestinian national movement, the political leadership abroad in Qatar and Turkey should not be underestimated. As for Iran, there is the military aspect, which is secret. There are massive preparations for war over three or four years. It is also affected not only by the party and Iran, but also by the situation in the West Bank as long as Hamas wants to lead Palestine.

There is no victor, perhaps except Iran, which is betting on the “overpowering” believing the illusions and that America and Israel will hand it over to it in partnership.

Why did the war happen now? We do not know why Iran has wanted war for over a year. The Jihad organization started it alone and its decision is purely Iranian. As the jihad’s losses in the West Bank and Gaza increased, the pressure on Hamas to participate intensified, and the Qataris and Turks put pressure to prevent Hamas from participating. Therefore, it is likely that the internal leadership took the decision under pressure from Iran.

What do the Iranians want from the Biden administration? Or that the Iranians were following the progress of the Saudi-Arab negotiations with America and the possibility of rapprochement with Israel. Since late 2022, Iranian leaders have been visiting Lebanon to meet Nasrallah and to meet with Hamas activists coming to Lebanon. This was undoubtedly done to plan war and politics and to encourage Hamas to participate.

Since then, for more than a year, Nasrallah has been talking about the unity of the squares. This means two things: pushing Hamas on the one hand, and encouraging it that the party will participate if it also pushes. Thus, the war broke out, and the Iranians said at first that they had nothing to do with it, then when it intensified and their factions moved in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and now Yemen, they returned to saying that they were participating and that the credit was theirs! Thus, they will remain present even inside Palestine, because everyone holds them in high regard.

Hamas's popularity rises

Hamas's popularity is now enormous in the Arab and Islamic worlds. Iran is winning and so is the party. Hamas will be weakened militarily, but its political role will not end, and it will remain a problem for the Palestinian Authority, which is popularly and institutionally weak, as well as for the Arab countries.

It is expected that there will be American, European and Arab interest in reviving the Palestinian Authority to enable it to participate in the complex two-state solution. Israel has not shown interest in talking about the two-state solution, and Netanyahu declares his opposition to it and does not recognize the authority. There are many who share his belief that the Authority does not have the ability to work in Gaza while Hamas remains present, and people in the West Bank do not want it. Therefore, there will be a problem for internationals and Arabs in acting in a vacuum. The Authority is not completely present, and Hamas is not absent. In addition to the political problem, there will be problems of compensation for the Palestinians and reconstruction.

In the last two weeks, the American and European position began to develop towards demanding a halt to the war for humanitarian reasons, under the pressure of public opinion and the media revealing the atrocities.

The Arabs have finally succeeded, at the request of the UAE, in taking a Security Council resolution to release aid and establish a humanitarian ceasefire. The position of the Arab and Islamic countries was the same during the war and remains the same since the Saudi Crown Prince brought together the fifty-seven Arab and Islamic countries on this. But they were unable to truly influence America and Israel despite their huge size. It is not clear how much influence they have on Hamas, with which they have relations only through Qatar and Egypt. The two countries are busy negotiating the release of prisoners from both sides in exchange for stopping the war.

The evolution of the American and European position

In the last two weeks, the American and European position began to develop towards demanding a halt to the war for humanitarian reasons, under the pressure of public opinion and the media revealing the atrocities. As for the international and humanitarian institutions, they were against the war from the beginning, and the position of the Secretary-General of the United Nations was large and clear, but it was also ineffective, despite two decisions taken by the United Nations General Assembly to stop the fighting, and now, as previously said, a resolution with the same meaning in the Security Council. It is expected that this global weight will be beneficial in the direction of the two-state solution.

In the final calculation, what is the meaning of everything that happened and is happening, and what can be concluded? The most important results are the global interest in ending the war on Palestine after seventy-five years of conflict, and the end will be through the establishment of a state for the Palestinians despite the complexities of negotiation and the divisions of the Palestinians.

The Israelis felt the danger to the state, and they became more rigid. There are few political elites who want peace in a Palestinian state, and most of them are American Jews. Many Israelis are betting that the world will forget after the fighting stops. The Israelis do not want Netanyahu to stay, but they do not believe in the possibility of permanent peace with the Palestinians.

There is no victor, except perhaps Iran, which is betting on the "overpowering" believing the illusions and handing over America and Israel to it in partnership! I heard Fahmi Huwaidi, after a long absence, saying on Al Jazeera that what happened was a war of liberation! Where is the liberation after the massive losses and Hamas's victory being limited to demanding a prisoner exchange?

The lesson I learned personally is that there is no solution through fighting, and that the problem continues. There's no strength except with Allah.

Source: Assas Media