Palestinian observers believe that Israel's announcement of its intention to move to a "third phase" of its operations in the Gaza Strip may mark the beginning of an end to the war that has been ongoing since last October 7.

The official Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that the army is preparing to move to the "third phase" within weeks, which includes stopping the ground invasion and reducing military operations, including demobilizing members of the reserve forces.

The Commission stated that the Israeli army's plans for the third phase will be based on resorting to specific operations and assassinations against the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and its leadership, and establishing a safe buffer zone inside the Gaza Strip.

At the end of last October, the Israeli army began ground maneuvers that included an expanded invasion with tanks and military vehicles in Gaza City and its north, and later in Khan Yunis in the south of the Strip.

- International and field pressure
Observers believe, in statements to Xinhua News Agency, that the announcement of a third phase in the operations launched by Israel comes in light of the escalation of international pressure on it and the continuation of Hamas to engage in field fighting in Gaza.

Palestinian military analyst Wassef Erekat says that the Israeli army is announcing a third phase in the war in Gaza at a time when it has not fully achieved its goals yet, and is facing active “resistance” from Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian factions.

Erekat points out that Israel has not achieved its declared goals, which include eliminating Hamas and liberating its detainees in Gaza, and is now aiming to create a buffer zone with a depth of up to two kilometers along the fence and reposition Israeli forces in the buffer zone.

He added, "There is a confusion of concepts in what Israel announces, given that the ground war has not yet achieved its goals and has not yet succeeded in completely encircling and clearing the capabilities of Hamas and other factions in Gaza."

Erekat believes that the Israeli army will find difficulties in building on the results of the ground war while it still has not achieved its goals, and therefore it will move to the “belt stage” in light of the presence of “continuous resistance” engaging in all axes of the incursion.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced last week during his visit to Israel that the Israeli army's transition from major military operations in Gaza to more precise operations "may ease regional tension."

- Search for a military achievement in points

Political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that Israel is looking to move to the stage of “looking for a military achievement with points in light of not achieving it so far, dealing a fatal blow to the Palestinian factions and pressures on the ground.”

Yaghi highlights that Israel is looking for alternative plans in the face of the pressures of world public opinion and the escalation of international criticism of it, by looking for the continuation of the fighting with “surgical and expanded operations in a specific geography.”

He explains that for the Israeli army in the next stage, “the military achievement with points is the most important to solve the dilemma of intractability in the field in order to achieve the matter with a final blow, and thus repositioning will provide a greater period of time for the war.”

Yaghi points out that Israel will insist on threatening a new, expanded response in the event that Palestinian factions target its forces stationed in the buffer zone or launch rockets at Israeli territory.

Yesterday, the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the city of Khan Yunis may be the last stop in what the Israeli army calls the intensive phase of the war, so that its operations will begin to diminish in the near future.

Meanwhile, Haaretz newspaper reported, “The military plans of the Israeli army will change in Gaza soon in light of Washington’s pressure to create a buffer zone along the Gaza border and for Israel to change its combat tactics.”

- Pushing towards the decline of the war
Writer and political analyst Rajab Abu Sariya believes that Israel's move to a third phase in its operations in the Gaza Strip indicates "the push toward an ebb in the war" as it approaches the completion of its third month.

Abu Sariya says that Israel realizes that achieving its goals in the war will take many months, and its fate and outcome will be largely determined by two things, the first of which is the process of the battle on the ground, and the second of which is the regional and international developments accompanying it.

He adds, "A decrease in the pace of war looms on the horizon through a transition to another form of operations based on focusing on military objectives and greater avoidance of harming civilians."

But Abu Sariya links the rapid decline in the war to the results of the indirect negotiations ongoing between Israel and Hamas to return to the path of prisoner exchange and the movement’s insistence on a permanent ceasefire and not temporary truces.

He concludes, "Whoever imposes his condition between a temporary truce or a permanent ceasefire may achieve victory with points, although it is likely that both sides will be forced to make concessions that reduce the ceiling of their demands in light of the accumulated pressures they are exposed to."