The professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, Paul Rogers, said that Israel is losing the war against Hamas, but Netanyahu and his government will not admit it.

He added, in an article published by The Guardian newspaper, that the official narrative is that Hamas has been weakened, but the failure is in the doctrine of the Israeli army. He says that the discourse related to the Gaza war is controlled by the Israeli Ministry of Defense. Despite the decline in Israel’s international reputation with the killing of more than 20,000 Palestinians and the wounding of more than 50,000 others, it was able to sell the apparent narrative of Hamas’s great weakness, and even claimed that the war in northern Gaza is over and the same success will be achieved in the south.

What helped Israel spread this narrative were the restrictions imposed on journalists, the few who still work there, and the risks to their safety, while the international press remained stuck in Jerusalem and relied on Israeli army briefings.

All of this changed quickly, first, because there was no convincing evidence that Hamas had established command centers under Al-Shifa Hospital. Secondly, the inability of the Israeli army, which has the most advanced intelligence equipment in the world, to determine the location of the hostages. The recent period witnessed two incidents. On December 12, Hamas set up a highly skilled ambush in a part of Gaza that was supposedly under Israeli control. In the ambush of the Israeli unit, there were deaths. Additional forces were sent to help, but they were attacked and other reinforcements were ambushed. A number of Israeli soldiers were killed and seriously wounded, but what matters is the ranks of the dead soldiers, who included a colonel and three majors from the elite Golani unit.

He continued, “For Hamas, which Israel says has dismembered and killed thousands of its members, to carry out an operation in an area controlled by the Israeli army, raises doubts about the idea of Israel achieving fundamental progress in the war.”

The next three days provided more evidence when three of the hostages succeeded in escaping from their captors and waving the white flag, but they were killed by Israeli army bullets. What made matters worse was the presence of calls from the hostages that were picked up by a device installed on a tracking dog belonging to the Israeli army, and three days before they were killed. There is other evidence about the problems of the Israeli army. Official figures state that the number of dead is 460 soldiers in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and 1,900 soldiers are wounded, but other sources suggest that the number of wounded is higher than announced.

Ten days ago, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper published information it obtained from the Soldiers’ Rehabilitation Center in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. The number was estimated at 5,000 wounded, with 58% classified as serious wounds, and 2,000 soldiers were officially considered disabled. The Times of Israel newspaper reported deaths due to friendly fire, saying that 20 of the 105 deaths were due to friendly fire. In general, Israel applies the “suburb doctrine,” which targets social, military, and economic structures to destroy the enemy’s will to fight and prevent it from causing a threat in the future.

But the “suburb” is not going according to plan, as criticism has come from unexpected circles, such as former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who warned that the current operation would leave a mark for the next half century, and even Joe Biden is no longer comfortable with what is unfolding before his eyes, but Netanyahu and the war government are determined to continue the war for as long as possible. The writer says that the October 7 attacks struck the sense of security among the Israelis, which means that many Jews will continue to support what Netanyahu is doing, and even this support has begun to shake, especially after the killing of the three prisoners by Israeli forces’ bullets.

The writer adds that the army leaders will be under pressure to achieve success and will continue the operation as much as the war government allows them. Most of these leaders are smart and have independent minds and know that, despite all Netanyahu's words, Hamas cannot be defeated or its ideas erased by military force, at least. They know that pressure from the hostages' families will lead to another humanitarian pause, even though the talks have stalled. Therefore, their goal will be to destroy Hamas as much as they can and as quickly as possible, and whatever the price the Palestinians will pay. To look for evidence of this approach, follow the increase in air strikes this week.

The writer continues that what will facilitate Netanyahu's approach is his reliance on an extremist fundamentalist religious minority and extremist Zionists in his government. They would not have gained widespread support in Israeli society if the tragedy of October 7 had not occurred, but they are doing everything in their power to harm the security of Israel, which not only risks becoming a pariah state, even among its allies, but will face hard-line generational opposition from Hamas, which is reshaping itself, or its successor. Israel needs to save itself, and this depends, more than anything else, on Joe Biden and those around him. Perhaps they recognized the change in public mood in the West and ended the war quickly.