A tripartite meeting in Riyadh... and Sinwar in Sinai?!

By Jan Aziz

Arab diplomatic sources confirm to Asas the accuracy of what the Wall Street Journal published two days ago, about Fatah-Hamas contacts, to discuss developments in Gaza, and to feel the pulse regarding the post-war period in particular.

The same sources reveal that these communications are taking place under the direct supervision of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who gave the green light to conduct them. This includes searching for some mechanism to reconstitute the authority, and holding elections that lead to the establishment of a comprehensive Palestinian composition, qualified to supposedly negotiate the results of the war and the possibilities after it, leading to proposing and achieving peace on the basis of the two-state solution.

Sources indicate that the key step will be in choosing a new president for the future coalition government of the Palestinian Authority. This suggests that his name has become fermented in Abu Mazen’s head alone. Although he has not yet revealed it to anyone else, even his closest aides. It was likely to be somewhat surprising and outside the list of names circulating, by local and foreign media.

Arab diplomatic sources confirm to Asas the accuracy of what the Wall Street Journal published two days ago, about Fatah-Hamas contacts, to discuss developments in Gaza, and to feel the pulse regarding the post-war period in particular.

Abbas wants to cooperate with Fatah

Diplomatic sources confirm that Abbas has become convinced of new institutional cooperation with Hamas. This explains the attack by some of those close to him: either in an unsuccessful attempt to convince him to abandon his intention to associate with the movement. Or in coordination with him, to put more pressure on the Hamas leadership, to lower its ceilings and accept any joint proposal that Abu Mazen may present to it.

These sources add that Abbas has become determined to follow this path, despite the fact that he was previously the most critical of the movement’s behavior, as well as the behavior of outsiders towards it.

It was revealed that he was very frank in this regard, in his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Ramallah. He held Washington's policies responsible for what the Authority, Palestine, and the entire region had become. He said to his guest frankly and repeatedly: Did I not tell you? How many times have I warned you?

The sources explain that what Abu Mazen intended by blaming successive American administrations was specifically their leniency with the crazy plans of Israeli officials to support Hamas, with the aim of striking the Authority and undermining the Oslo Accords. This has continued and persisted for more than ten years.

Israel "funded" the Hamas operation

It reveals that Washington, like Tel Aviv, accepted the issue of Qatari funding for the movement, without anticipating its actual purposes and true long-term goals. Regardless of the humanitarian and sound intention of the Doha leadership, Tel Aviv officials were under the illusion that their approval of this funding and their supervision of it would lead to the rationalization of Hamas, its domestication, and its placing it on a path of peaceful action. On the other hand, it also leads to a Palestinian-Palestinian rift that facilitates Israel’s conspiracies against the West Bank-Gaza axis. Diplomatic sources report from the Palestinian Authority that senior Israeli officials directly and personally assumed this mission. Until he left his position about two years ago, the former Mossad director, Yossi Cohen, personally supervised directly the transfer of Qatari funding to Hamas from Doha to the Gaza Strip. This amounted to $30 million per month. While the Israelis were hoping that this money would be spent on Gazan development, relieving them of the responsibility of helping the Strip and lifting their unjust siege of it, and thus diverting the attention of the international community from the crime of turning this region into the largest open human prison, Hamas was using every cent of that money in two areas that are not other than: military equipment and preparation, and salaries for people in Gaza.

Sources indicate that the key step will be in choosing a new president for the future coalition government of the Palestinian Authority. This suggests that his name has become fermented in Abu Mazen’s head alone. Although he has not yet revealed it to anyone else, even his closest aides

The same circles explain that the movement's leadership, in light of the financial surplus it reached, was purchasing huge quantities of basic foodstuffs, until they almost ran out of the Gaza Strip market. Then it took the initiative to distribute it in the form of subsidies to the people of Gaza, which further helped it expand its base of legitimacy among them. All of this is in preparation for the moment of battle.

Sinwar in Sinai... through tunnels?

As for the military supply line, the same sources report from the Palestinian authorities that the line of armament, ammunition, and military logistical support was focused almost exclusively on the Rafah-Sinai axis. This is what many people keep secret. The sources reveal that the Palestinian authorities believe that there are hundreds of tunnels in that area, with a length of more than 15 km each, and a width that can accommodate even trucks. They do not even rule out that senior Hamas leaders, such as Yahya Al-Sinwar, Muhammad Al-Deif and others, are currently stationed there, under the land of Sinai, not under the land of Gaza, and that the Palestinian Authority knew about this matter and its hidden background and considerations that it was unable to reveal, due to well-known Egyptian considerations. But it has been warning Washington about it for years, to no avail.

The same diplomatic circles also reveal that during last September, that is, a few weeks before the October 7 attack, tripartite American-Saudi-Palestinian meetings were held in the Kingdom. During which, representatives of the Palestinian Authority were briefed on the positive breach that had been achieved on the American mediation line between the Kingdom and Israel. The authority was reassured that this progress would bear definite results for the Palestinian issue, and that any normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv would inevitably include progress on the path to reaching peace on the basis of the two-state solution, and that on that day the authority repeatedly warned both parties about what was happening in the Gaza Strip, without this being heeded. 

Now these developments are behind everyone. But the consequences on the ground are heavy and harsh for everyone as well. The same sources expect that the war will not end with a death toll of less than 25,000. In addition to the complete and systematic destruction of a comprehensive urban structure, it becomes impossible for more than two million people to live on it.

Therefore, diplomatic sources expect that the opening of the Rafah crossing, in some form and according to certain mechanisms, to receive a portion of the displaced Gazans, will be inevitable in the not too distant future, provided that the research focuses on controlling this opening, its borders, duration, results, and conclusions and nothing else.

The other intractable issue until now relates to the security framework for managing the Strip after the war. The presence of the Israeli occupation army is impossible. The Western forces are rejected by their owners as well as by the owners of the land. As for the Arab forces, it appears to be a thorny issue regarding composition and authority unless Egypt takes the initiative, which is what sources say it expects after the re-election of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi a few days ago.

Until that time, the Palestinians will continue to pay the price of having a right in a region that only recognizes the right to force.

Source: Assas Media