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ARAB AND WORLD

Fri 22 Dec 2023 7:56 am - Jerusalem Time

Analysis| Waiting for a long war of attrition in Gaza

By Suleiman Abu Irshid

The depth of the failure, or "rot" as expressed by military analyst Amir Oren, was revealed when Hamas turned the door latch and found it open, and it turned out on the seventh of October that Yahya Sinwar had been preparing for this scenario for many years, from the day Netanyahu freed him.

Regardless of the outcome of this war of aggression on Gaza, it is a major failure for Israel with its army, intelligence, security agencies and military and political leadership, as it proved that the failure that occurred on the seventh of October, which led to the collapse of the Israeli defense line in front of the attack of the Palestinian resistance, is a link in a the framework of a declared strategy that It does not only take destruction and displacement as its goals, but also as a means to facilitate the Israeli army’s operations on the ground.


With each new day that passes over the bloody war that enters the second half of its third month, a new intelligence and military failure unfolds, once by finding a huge tunnel with a length of 4 km and a depth of tens of meters that stretches from Jabalia to the "Erez" Crossing and forms an underground route for cars to cross to the border area, and its opening is located within sight of the Israeli observation towers, and only 400 meters from the border wall.


Another was the belated discovery that the commander of the al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif, the mastermind of the operation of the seventh of October, who they thought was paralyzed, walking on a wheel chair, was standing on his feet and in good health, another was stunned by the discovery of a network of tunnels that included rooms, command headquarters and large lounges in northern Gaza, and another by the presence of Israeli hostages alive before the Israeli army killed them above ground in the Shuja'iya neighborhood in Gaza.


The depth of the failure, or" rot " as expressed by military analyst Amir Oren, was revealed when Hamas turned the latch of the door and found it open, and it turned out on the seventh of October that Yahya Sinwar has been preparing for this scenario for many years, from the day that Netanyahu freed him with a thousand of his comrades in exchange for Gilad Shalit.


Oren says that no plan in any Israeli neighborhood did not foresee the situation prevailing between the months of October and December 23, with a huge amount of reservists in active military service for a long time, and this large number of injured, which is almost equal to the number of regular army soldiers, besides the presence of 150 thousand people evacuated from their homes in the south and North also constitute a kind of reservists.


Or, as Haim Levinson described in Haaretz, the human tendency to choose a good situation, preferring to listen to the greatness of the Air Force and its jets, artificial intelligence, cyber experts, geniuses of 8200 and brave companies, enjoying thinking about the smart Shin Bet agents who make the stone speak, hanging their ears with the conversations of Yahya Sinwar, dreaming of the Mossad, who succeeds in assassinating the director of the nuclear program in the heart of Iran, and it's also good to wake up to the voice of optimistic analysts instead of analysts warning about the upcoming escalation and saying, "the army is not ready, that we are not as strong as we wanted, that our leadership is mediocre, and it may be a failure...".


"Just as we have gradually returned to the pre-October seventh habits, so in self-propaganda we have returned to narcissism, stubbornness and empty threats, we promise to exterminate Beirut and bomb Lebanon, that we are one step away from undermining Hamas and returning prisoners due to military pressure and that we are winning, and perhaps it is better to say that we are winning than to say that we are stuck in a localized run in Gaza,"Levinson adds.


The issue of involvement in Gaza, even if it is occupied, is the most likely option, as military and political leaders are talking about a situation that is more like a long war of attrition that will last for months or at least a year, without a road map for an exit, at a time when Israeli and American views are conflicting between talking about full security control, perhaps cutting the Strip into areas similar to the West Bank and insisting on the non-return of power, to maintain the political and geographical fragmentation, and Biden's vision of not returning to the occupation of Gaza and saying the two-state solution from the American perspective.


All of them are premature scenarios, because the resistance in Gaza is still recovering in the North and South, its rockets are falling in Tel Aviv, and the Israeli army has suffered significant losses in various axes of fighting, and if there is talk about the next day, it also applies to Israel, which apparently failed, despite its long and destructive war, to restore the prestige of its army that was broken and restore its lost psychological balance, and after the end of the war will come a difficult calculation with its political and military leadership responsible for this failure.

Source: arab48

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Analysis| Waiting for a long war of attrition in Gaza

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