A wave of new analyzes by US intelligence agencies warn that Hamas's credibility and influence have grown significantly across the Middle East over the past two months since the unprecedented attack on October 7 and the start of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.

CNN, which published the news, says: “While the ongoing Israeli air campaign has caused the death of thousands of civilians inside Gaza, Hamas, which the United States and Europe classify as a terrorist group, has been able to present itself as the only armed group fighting against a brutal oppressor who kills women and children.” 

Officials familiar with the various assessments say that the movement has succeeded in positioning itself in some parts of the Arab and Islamic world as a defender of the Palestinian cause and an effective fighter against Israel.

Hamas' increasing influence comes in the wake of its bold attack (on November 7) on Israel, which resulted in the killing of about 1,200, including 311 soldiers, according to official Israeli statements, and its performance on the ground in confronting the Israeli occupation forces, and inflicting strong strikes on it despite the ferocity of the war that Israel is waging against Gaza Strip.

The United States has strongly defended Israel's right to defend itself in the wake of the attack, "including its campaign to completely eliminate Hamas," according to the network.

From Hamas's perspective, the October 7 attack on southern Israel was a stunning operational success. In the months that followed, it received credit — particularly in the occupied West Bank — for negotiating the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel, in exchange for some of the hostages the group held during the offensive, these sources say. 

“At the same time, Hamas propaganda videos portray the group as highly moral fighters who follow the teachings of Islam — despite the horrific details of the October 7 attack and accusations of sexual violence against Israeli women reported by eyewitnesses that day — along with a deluge of devastating attacks.” 

Images of the suffering of civilians inside Gaza spread widely on Arab social media.

The network quotes a senior American official in the US administration as saying: “Hamas was not a very popular organization (before October 7), but today it has become more popular.”

According to the US intelligence report, “The conflict is more likely to strengthen Hamas’ influence outside Gaza than inside Gaza, where years of misrule have bred mistrust.”

An opinion poll conducted during the first week of November showed that strong support for the October 7 attacks was much higher among Palestinians in the West Bank than in Gaza – 68% versus 47%. While conducting surveys is challenging in wartime, with many Gazans displaced from their homes by Israeli bombing, this finding has been replicated in other surveys.

Various assessments have been circulating within the US government as Biden administration officials begin to publicly warn that the civilian death toll from Israeli bombing threatens to increase Hamas's popularity in the Palestinian territories, and as analysts warn that the bombing may only inspire more terrorism there and abroad.

“In this type of combat, the center of gravity is the civilian population,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier this month. “If you push them into the enemy’s arms, you are exchanging tactical victory for strategic defeat.”

The network says: “In his office, about a mile from the main square in Ramallah, (well-known Palestinian pollster) Khalil Shikaki reflects on the conflict, and says that the Palestinians overwhelmingly support Hamas’s decision to go to war with Israel. His research company has published, The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) just released the results of its latest poll on Palestinian attitudes.

Personal interviews were conducted with 750 adults in the West Bank, and personal interviews were conducted with 481 adults in Gaza. Data were collected in Gaza during the last truce, when it was safer for researchers to move around.

The poll, which has a margin of error of four points (instead of the usual three), found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of respondents believed Hamas' decision to launch its attack on Israel on October 7 was "correct."

Less than a quarter (22%) said this was “not true.”

Shikaki said this did not mean support for atrocities: “No one should see this as support for any atrocities that Hamas may have committed on that day.” "

He added: "The Palestinians believe that diplomacy and negotiations are not an option available to them, and that violence and armed struggle are the only means to end the siege imposed on Gaza, and in general to end the Israeli occupation."

This important distinction was highlighted by three of the survey's data points. Nearly 80% of the sample told researchers at the Palestinian Center for Policy Research that killing women and children in their homes is a war crime.