Western diplomats have revealed that Israel is creating conditions for the occupation army to reoccupy Gaza after the war, three senior Western diplomats told the Times of Israel magazine. The diplomats, two of whom are ambassadors, acknowledged Israel's stated desire to avoid such a scenario.

However, they explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to return the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza, his failure to offer realistic alternatives, and Israel's assertion that Israel will maintain comprehensive security control over the Strip, discourage regional and global actors from cooperating with American efforts to rebuild the Strip after the war.

“Under these circumstances, I don’t see a more likely scenario,” said one diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

He continued: “We will work to prevent the reoccupation of Gaza, but there are no candidates to rule there other than the Palestinian Authority, which the current Israeli government insists on weakening, so where does that lead us?” a second diplomat asked, highlighting the government's decision last month to withhold hundreds of millions in tax revenue from Ramallah, depriving the already cash-strapped Palestinian Authority of much-needed funds.

The third diplomat agreed with these predictions, but speculated that Israel could eventually change course, as it did after occupying southern Lebanon for 18 years, and the government withdrew its forces in 2000 amid declining public support for the operation that claimed the lives of hundreds of Israeli soldiers there.

The Israeli magazine said: “The comments of Western diplomats revealed the prevailing view in many countries that continue to support the Israeli military operation against Hamas, but are increasingly opposed to Netanyahu’s plans for Gaza after the war. 

These statements also revealed the limited influence that some of the world’s most dominant governments believe they currently have over Israel after October 7.”

In the months following the Hamas attack, Netanyahu insisted that Israel would maintain “comprehensive security control” over the Strip after the war in order to ensure a similar attack would not occur again.

This view prevails among the Israeli leadership, as Defense Minister Galant said: “We will impose full security control over the armed forces, including seizing territory to allow operational efforts to continue.”

Israeli leaders also announced that in addition to establishing a military buffer zone inside Gaza, the army will also enter the Strip as needed in order to neutralize threats.

Israeli officials have privately likened the future status they envision for Gaza to that of Area B in the West Bank, where Israel maintains security control without assuming responsibility for Palestinian civil services.

“No Arab power will agree to enter Gaza in such circumstances,” one diplomat said, adding that this collapse in responsibility is what led to the loss of the popularity of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and therefore Abbas cannot be expected to return to Gaza in a similar format.

Indeed, a senior aide to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told The Times of Israel earlier this month that the Palestinian Authority would not agree to return to Gaza unless Israeli forces fully withdraw and the move was part of a broader initiative aimed at achieving a two states solution in the end.

But Netanyahu rejected both conditions, repeatedly saying that he would not allow Gaza to become “Fathistan,” in reference to the Fatah movement led by Abbas, and declaring that he was proud to have prevented the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Minister Gantz was more specific, saying that Israel must “identify local sources to take care of sanitation, medicine and civil issues” with the support of moderate Arab countries.

However, the UAE conditioned its provision of financial and political support for the reconstruction of Gaza after the war on progress in the initiative supported by Washington towards achieving a two-state solution.

For its part, Washington said that opposition to the reoccupation of Gaza and reducing the area of the Strip’s territory by establishing a buffer zone are among its “five principles” in dealing with Gaza in the post-war period. However, Biden aides acknowledged that the IDF would have to maintain a security presence in Gaza for an initial period after the war.

The United States wants this transitional period to begin within weeks, and Biden administration officials are pressuring Israel to move from high-intensity military operations to lighter fighting in Gaza, but Israel believes that this transitional period could last for years.

“Washington has been in Germany for many years, and has been in Japan for many years, and today Germany and Japan are among your strongest allies. “This is the change we must bring about with the Palestinians,” Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said. Asked about Dermer’s comments, a senior Western diplomat said, “This looks to me like an occupation of Gaza.”