By Nayef Zidani

The political level and the security establishment in the Israeli occupation state are increasingly aware that the war in the Gaza Strip may move into its third phase (after the air phase and the ground operation phase) during the next month, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political calculations and plans may change that.

The Hebrew newspaper "Haaretz" reported on Wednesday that, according to the United States' recommendation, the change in the form of fighting includes moving to establishing a buffer zone on the borders of the Gaza Strip (and perhaps also between the north and south of the Strip), and reducing part of the reserve forces in the Israeli occupation army and switching to the method of raids through army brigades, instead of the four military divisions that currently continue to carry out a large-scale, slow and fierce ground operation in a large part of the territory of the Gaza Strip.

The debate in the Israeli occupation state is focused on the issue of when it is best to begin implementing this change, in mid-January or shortly before its end, but there is a major obstacle to the transitional process, which is the political situation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who fears the collapse of his coalition under the pressure and resentment from the right.

The newspaper pointed out that the US administration, the Pentagon and representatives of the US Army’s Central Command had long recommended that Israel change the form of the operation, but the Americans did not put much pressure in this context, “and they show an unusual understanding to justify the Israeli war in the face of the massacre committed by Hamas around the Gaza Strip.” They give it enormous military and political support and maintain surprising patience given the repeated provocations by Netanyahu and some members of the right wing of his government.

Haaretz added: "But on the other hand, they are disturbed by the mass killing of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, and as President Joe Biden commented last week, they expect Israel to curb air strikes in order to reduce the number of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip."

The newspaper's military commentator, Amos Harel, pointed out that there are other factors that may play a role in the next direction of the war, including "the unprecedented pressure on the reserve forces (in the occupation army) and its long-term effects on the economy."

The writer praised the fighting spirit of the soldiers, “but hundreds of thousands of them have been in service for about two and a half months in a row, and therefore the resulting projections for families, businesses, and education are increasing. It seems that it will be necessary to take this into account and make changes in January.” 

The United States is not complaining about Israel's desire to deepen the operation in Khan Yunis, which Israeli Security Minister Yoav Galant said yesterday was its main goal to target the leadership of Hamas.

The United States is not complaining about Israel's desire to deepen the operation in Khan Yunis

Harel pointed out that the operation there is progressing slowly and cautiously, due to the fear of more deaths among the ranks of the occupation army, and to avoid harming more Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip, while Israel assumes that Hamas prefers to keep them near its leaders, as a guarantee.

The Chief of Staff of the Israeli occupation army, Herzi Halevy, said in the Cabinet sessions last Monday that it took ten years for the United States to assassinate Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, adding in his speech to the ministers that Israel would need less than that to kill Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Halevy thus hinted that the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip might take another, less severe form before achieving its goals, a statement that did not please many members of the cabinet.

The Cabinet's concerns are increasing about reducing the war in the Gaza Strip before achieving its declared goals, which are eliminating Hamas, restoring Israeli detainees, and creating a new security situation that allows the residents of the Gaza Strip to return to their homes.

Despite the warnings he heard, Netanyahu insisted on pledging these “ambitious” goals from the beginning of the war, which began to clash with reality.

The military analyst reviewed what he considered to be the achievements of the Israeli occupation army in the Gaza Strip, but at the same time pointed out that they did not lead to the collapse of Hamas’ systems, nor did they extinguish the fighting spirit of the resistance fighters. He pointed to the heavy loss of life suffered by the Israeli army.

Netanyahu's most important concern: staying in power

Harel says that Netanyahu is well aware of what is happening, “but what seems to matter to him and what is going on in his head is to remain in power, and therefore, he may choose to manage an artificial confrontation with the Americans in order to keep the right-wing parties with him.”

In this case, the ball will move to the ministers of “Hamaneh Hamalakhti (the official camp), so that its leader, Benny Gantz, and Minister Gadi Eisenkot, will have to decide on the timing and controversial points that will push them to dismantle the coalition that they agreed to join in the wake of the events of last October 7, in the first week of the war. 

Source: Alaraby Aljadeed