In a report by The Jerusalem Post published on December 8, 2023, which appears to have received little attention in Western coverage of the Israeli war on Gaza, the following is stated: “The Israeli army expects combat operations to continue until the end of January,” followed by minor armed insurgency for three to nine months.” It appears that this prediction may have set off alarm bells in the Biden administration.

The White House realizes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to continue the war with the intention of “destroying” Hamas. But far from achieving this major goal, American officials have likely concluded that Israel is unable to continue its war in Gaza without killing more Palestinian civilians, or that it is not prepared to stop civilian casualties, as a report by the American Responsible Statecraft website says.

As the threat of disease and famine increases after the displacement of Gazans to the south in a hopeless search for so-called safety, the possibilities of a major crisis in relations between the United States and Israel are increasing, according to the American website.

Are the United States and Israel about to collide?

On December 12, President Joe Biden showed clear dissatisfaction with the Israeli government and Netanyahu. In his remarks to donors, Biden said that Israel is losing support around the world because of the way it is managing the Gaza war.

According to reports, he also said that Netanyahu “must change,” and pointed to the Israeli Prime Minister’s rejection of the two-state solution on which President Biden himself relied in his approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This gap between the positions of the United States and Israel on the Gaza crisis is due in part to the contradictory signals the White House sent to Israel in the first weeks following the Hamas attack on October 7.

Beyond Biden's "strong hug" to Netanyahu - a leader he dislikes very much - US officials, including the president, have signaled a kind of confusing inconsistency when it comes to pressuring Israel to limit the ferocity of the bombing campaign.

However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on December 7, in which he said: “There remains a gap between the intent to protect civilians and the actual results we are seeing on the ground,” underscored the US administration’s dissatisfaction with the Israeli attacks on southern Gaza. He pointed to a much larger problem: the White House's failure so far to secure Israeli approval for a post-war plan in Gaza that includes the Palestinian Authority. For Washington, Netanyahu's continued and stubborn focus on military tactics represents a strategic nightmare, says the American Responsible Statecraft website.

National anger and political evasion

In light of the reluctance of Netanyahu's war government to address the issue of "the day after the end of the war," as well as the fact that some 1.8 million Gazans have been displaced from their homes under bombardment, Arab officials have expressed growing fears that Israel is seeking a new Nakba. Vice President Kamala Harris's warning that the United States will "under no circumstances" tolerate the forced transfer of Palestinians from Gaza suggests that the Biden administration shares these concerns.

Indeed, against the backdrop of expanding Israeli operations in northern and southern Gaza, the administration is trying to garner regional support for a plan aimed at placing post-war Gaza under the control of the “revived” Palestinian Authority, so that, in Blinken’s words, “the path to peace can be taken.” Just, lasting and safe for Israelis and Palestinians.”

Viewing such an effort as a step toward some kind of Palestinian state, Netanyahu has flatly rejected any idea of placing Gaza under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority. However, his failure to clarify the ultimate goal of the Israeli military campaign fuels fears in Israel that despite explicit reassurances of strong American support for the military campaign, the United States and Israel are on a collision course.

“Netanyahu must stop serving his political influence.”

Concerns about such a clash have sparked calls from Israeli opinion leaders for Netanyahu's government to clarify its agenda "the day after the war ends." Although some of these calls are, as might be expected, “center- left” more conservative figures have participated. One of these commentators, Yaakov Katz, wrote in The Jerusalem Post on December 8, reminding his readers that in addition to the warnings of US Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel that continuing military operations that kill thousands of civilians, may push the population of Gaza into the arms of Hamas, and then suffer a "strategic defeat."

According to Katz, such American statements show that “while the United States has so far refrained from calling for a comprehensive ceasefire, there is no doubt in Israel that such a call is getting closer and closer.” And with it will arise a potential conflict over a vital question: Where will Gaza fit into the revived peace efforts?

Katz apparently does not feel that Netanyahu can be trusted to prevent such a clash; Because the Prime Minister only acts according to what “serves his political influence.” But given the still huge gap between the American and Israeli positions on the future of the Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank, it is difficult to imagine how Katz’s call for Israel to “coordinate with the United States” on developing a joint plan could amount to more than an attempt to postpone the clash. In addition, it is not at all clear whether the Biden administration will ultimately be ready to put a bandage on the deep diplomatic wound between the United States and Israel.

Despite these conflicting visions, or perhaps because of them, the Israeli War Council appears to have concluded that the time has come to begin formulating some sort of political diplomatic strategy. Commenting on this issue, one Israeli analyst noted that while Netanyahu recently formed a committee to decide on post-war strategies for Gaza, “developing a practical plan that can be accepted by this current government will be a major challenge.”

For Israel, the United States, and the region, there is another important “day after”: the morning after new elections and the formation of a new Israeli government. Regardless of when “the next day” happens, it is clear that the United States and Israel are at odds.

Will an "armed rebellion" break out without an end?

As many analysts have argued, continued Israeli aggression may motivate more young people in Gaza to join Hamas, creating a guerrilla war that could see Israeli soldiers fighting and dying in an endless battle. Such an outcome would represent a victory for Hamas or any group that succeeds it, especially if this outcome develops in the midst of a broader regional war.

For the United States and its Arab allies, the possibility of this unforgivable scenario is as real as it is unacceptable. To avoid this, the Biden administration may try to forge a diplomatic breakthrough, perhaps by brokering a breakthrough in Israeli-Saudi relations. The prospect of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia may shake the traumatized Israeli political system in ways that open the door to the kind of solutions it is not currently contemplating.

But if there is to be a second round of normalization agreements — one that is about making a real peace that guarantees Palestinian rights rather than just cheering on Hanukkah celebrations in Dubai — President Biden will have to support an Israeli-Palestinian strategy of action, which could cause unprecedented tensions in the US-Israeli strategic partnership. The American website says.

source: Arabic Post