As the Israeli war on Gaza entered its third month, and the battles intensified, the obstacles to the war began to become clearer in Israel, despite the attempts of the political and security leaders, with the help of the army and its media machine, and the support of a large section of analysts in Israeli channels, to market claims of military achievements on the ground, and signs of the collapse of the movement. agitation.

The dilemmas facing decision makers currently are many. Among the most prominent of these are the scarcity of strategic achievements on the battlefield, the increasing human losses of the Israeli army, despite the massive destruction of infrastructure and life in the Gaza Strip, the increasing differences between political decision-makers in Israel, the deepening of the economic crisis, and the beginning of the political and diplomatic clock turning against the clock. Israel's desires, and the failure of Israeli deterrence attempts on the northern front against Hezbollah.

Military obstacles

At the beginning of the third month of the war on Gaza, the official number of Israeli army deaths since the beginning of the ground battle was approximately 110 dead, and thousands were wounded, including two thousand disabled, according to unofficial reports.

The Israeli military establishment is making a special effort in an attempt to promote the narrative of achievements on the battlefield, and claims that the capabilities of the Hamas movement are declining. In fact, Defense Minister Yoav Galant stated that there are initial indicators indicating the beginning of Hamas’ collapse.

In an attempt to search for images of victory, even if they were fabricated, the Israeli media vigorously promoted images of groups of civilians in Gaza, almost naked, and claimed that they were scenes of mass surrender of Hamas fighters, and bragged about this achievement. But the army quickly retracted this claim, explaining that the majority of these people had no connection to Hamas, and that they were citizens who were in shelters.

This obsession with images of victory or achievements indicates the beginnings of frustration in the media and society, which may turn into a state of pressure on decision-makers in Israel. The failure to achieve strategic military achievements on the ground prompted a number of military analysts to begin asking difficult questions that the army, government, and society have tried to ignore until now, the most important of which are the possibility of defeating Hamas, achieving the declared war goals, and the time frame of the war.

|| When the limitations of Israeli power become clear, the consensus on war will begin to erode

Israeli analysts doubted the possibility of Israel achieving its goals in the war it is waging against Gaza. Some analysts believed that the Hamas movement is still far from being broken, and that there is no possibility of its surrender at present. In fact, a number of analysts are warning that the war launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip is heading towards failure, pointing to the lack of political solutions, and considering that the goals seem far-fetched.

Some hinted that the military and political establishment does not tell the whole truth. In recent days, the Israeli media published estimates by the army in which it is expected that the year 2024 will be a “year of combat,” as it will continue its military operations within the framework of its war on Gaza, military alert, and widespread deployment on the northern front, amid expectations that all battalions affiliated with the reserve forces will be required to continue  military service over the next year. These estimates are very important, and dispel Israel's illusions of achieving real achievements in the short term on the battlefield.

These estimates indicate that the state of reserve force recruitment will continue during the next year, with continued human losses, and the issue of Israeli prisoners and kidnapped persons held by Hamas not being resolved.

It also means that a large portion of the population of the settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip and the border with Lebanon will remain outside it, and that there will be no relief for the economic crisis soon, which means more political rifts within the Israeli government, especially within the War Administration Council, and the real possibility of a clash between the goals of the Israeli government and the goals of the American administration. .

Political rifts under the management of the war

Currently, there are not minor rifts between decision-makers in Israel, especially between the Prime Minister, the Minister of Security, and the military establishment. It is a continuation of the state of mistrust between them since the protests against the government plan to restrict the judiciary, and the continuation of Netanyahu’s attempt to pin the accusation of the major failure of last October 7 on the military institution.

Netanyahu and Gallant do not hide the existing tension between them and the scarcity of bilateral meetings, despite the lack of serious public disagreement about the goals of the war and the method of its management. It is clear that the source of the differences is political, and their dimensions and goals are essentially political.

Economic obstacle

The economic situation in Israel is heading towards further deterioration, and this will put serious pressure on the decision-maker and on Israeli society, as there is a need for more budgets for the army and shelter for residents who have left their homes and towns in the south and north.

According to estimates, income and domestic product will decline in 2024, tax collection will decline, and there will be a need to adjust the government budget, raise the deficit, and perhaps raise taxes. Currently, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich continues to distribute special budgets to partners in the government coalition, to sectors that do not contribute to economic growth or to the war effort, not caring about the criticism or voices saying that the government’s management of finances will lead to dire results.

|| Israel is trying through diplomacy and threats to remove Hezbollah forces from the border

Until now, the general economic situation in the country, and the economic decline in the case of individuals and families, have not caused any dissatisfaction or protest. Israeli society prioritizes the need for military decisiveness, and everyone enlists in the war effort. But this does not mean that the situation will remain this way, especially among the business sector and families whose incomes have declined. If the war continues for a longer period, or the approach of the Minister of Finance continues as it is, the economic axis will be a pressure factor and a serious obstacle for decision-makers.

Fear of expansion of the northern front

One of the factors that have become urgent in recent days for security and military decision-makers in Israel is the state of the northern front facing Hezbollah, as the severity and frequency of Israeli threats to the party and Lebanon are increasing.

It is important to point out here that the threatening messages between Israel and Hezbollah did not begin only after the war on Gaza, but rather began, albeit at a low pace and intensity, several months before that. At the beginning of this year, the Minister of Security threatened the party with returning Lebanon to the Stone Age, and Hezbollah responded in the same language.

It has become clear that the question of the situation on the northern border has gone beyond the Israeli question of the war on Gaza, so that Israel declares that the issue now relates to the question of the presence of "Hezbollah" forces on the northern border without any relation to the war on Gaza. The residents of the north made it clear that the status quo could not continue, and that they would not return to their towns as long as there was a presence of Hezbollah forces, for fear of a new version of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, which would be more difficult and severe. Not to mention that the Israeli military doctrine based on the principle of deterrence no longer works against Hezbollah in the manner required by Israel.

Israel is faced with the dilemma of how to deal with this reality, between its limited capabilities and the need to restore its deterrence capacity, while it is engaged in the war on Gaza, and faces an American refusal to open the northern front. Israel is trying to find solutions through diplomacy and threats to push Hezbollah forces away from the border all the way to the Litani River in the north, and it knows that there is no possibility of this succeeding.

The possibility of expanding and deepening the northern front constitutes another obstacle to the continuation of the war on Gaza, because any expansion of the northern front will force Israel to transfer forces from the southern front to the north, as it has so far relied primarily on reserve forces that cannot confront Hezbollah forces alone, and of course directing Air capabilities towards the north.

As the ground battles continue, and the human cost to the Israeli army rises, the obstacles to the continuation of the war in its current form are revealed. Israel has so far acted as if it is the only effective force in the region, and that it has the necessary tools to continue the war and resolve it without deterrence.

The course of events indicates a different reality. Israel is discovering the difficulty of achieving military goals, its economic and diplomatic costs, and the erosion of its image globally. In parallel, Israel fears the expansion of the war northward and its greater costs. When the limitations of Israeli power and capabilities become clear, the Israeli consensus and absolute support for the war of revenge will begin to erode, and the rifts will widen. This may lead to shortening the war without ending it.

Source: Alaraby Aljadeed