Michael Clarke, visiting professor of defense studies at King's College, University of London, and fellow at the Royal United Institute of Studies, argued in an article for The Sunday Times that Israel has lost control of the war in Gaza, and the longer the ceasefire lasts, the greater the pressure on the Israeli war government continues to exchange hostages with Hamas.

The writer said that the temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages and prisoners was a relief for both parties in the Gaza conflict after 50 fierce days.

Despite the positive news, the way Israel handled the hostage crisis indicates the risks of losing the war. On the second day of the conflict, Israel activated Section 40 of its Basic Law and officially declared that it was in a state of war with Hamas, allowing it to call up reserve forces.

According to Israeli figures, it has mobilized a force of 550,000 soldiers, which is many times greater than the 25,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza.

Despite this, Israel has lost control of events. The hostages have given Hamas a whip, which it is skilled at using. The Israeli war government gave priority to recovering the hostages rather than achieving the goals of the war.

Hamas is expected to manipulate the emotions of every Israeli, argue over every detail, delay, obfuscate and pressure in order to gain a political advantage, according to the writer. Hamas leaders, like the rest of the world, will view the Israeli war government as having yielded to American pressure.

When Joe Biden visited Israel on October 18 and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he was skeptical that the hostages would be freed through the use of excessive force against Hamas. When the latter released two American hostages on October 25, the United States agreed to the Qatari proposal to negotiate with Hamas to release a larger number of hostages and bring in relief convoys if a temporary ceasefire was agreed upon.

The US envoy for Middle East affairs, Brett McGuirk, established a cell in Washington that coordinated extensively with the Qatari Prime Minister’s office in Doha, to advance an exchange deal that began on Friday. Israel was not the most important player in pushing for the deal, and Netanyahu, under pressure from the hostages' families, tried to gain influence through a five-day truce in exchange for the release of 50 hostages.

Israel published the names of another number of Palestinians who could be released if the deal was extended, hoping to bring in another number of hostages and put pressure on Hamas leaders. If 100 of the 230 hostages were released within nine days of the ceasefire, this might ease public anger in Israel against Netanyahu, whose security policy over the 14 years of his rule has become a wreck.

At the time of the truce, Israel will attempt to redeploy its forces in Gaza, increase military supplies and collect security information for the next phase, and Hamas will do the same. The longer the ceasefire lasts, the greater the pressure on the war government in Tel Aviv to extend it in order to continue the exchange, and Israel will undoubtedly be a prisoner of its hostages held by Hamas, as well as the exchange of soldiers, who will be the last to be released.

It is believed that Hamas has 20 American hostages, and will continue to put Biden in the same trap and work to delay the second phase of the Israeli military operation.

Israel claimed that it killed 4,000 Hamas fighters, in addition to the 1,000 fighters the movement lost in its first attack on October 7. This means 5,000 elite fighters out of 25,000 fighters, according to the writer.

It can be assumed that the rest of them, which did not fight much in the north, withdrew towards the south. The Israeli army will not be able to advance with three or four armored divisions into the south, where more than two million people are concentrated, in the same way as it did in the north.

The writer believes that the improvised responses of the Israeli army when it arrived at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza were evidence of poor planning for operations in civilian centers.

Without a political plan from the war government, the army was acting blind. Its problems in the south will be greater.

Last week, the army advised residents of the southern Gaza Strip to move towards Al-Mawasib, an area in the far south, with an area not exceeding 14 square kilometers, as a step towards Khan Yunis and Rafah. United Nations organizations said that this is not only not desirable, but impossible.

Faced with a population density in the Gaza Valley of 9,000 people per kilometre, 40% higher than Greater London, it is unlikely that Israeli forces will be able to repeat the infantry thrust they did in the north. If combat operations resume, the Israeli army will most likely engage in an indirect campaign, special forces operations, rapid incursions to target Hamas facilities, and other attempts to assassinate the movement’s leaders such as Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad al-Deif.

The new air strikes will lead to international outrage, especially after the temporary truce that eased the conditions of civilians and led to the release of the hostages.

The harsh reality in Tel Aviv is that the war it declared is going wrong in many ways. It is true that the war government has weakened Hamas's ability, but it has not yet destroyed it. The Hamas fighters it wants to kill have also mixed with civilians in the south, and most of them will survive, as will Hamas.

The Israeli army knows that the operation will be long, but the war government knows that the pendulum of public opinion will move in sympathy with the suffering of Gaza, and the horror of October 7 will become a distant memory.

Netanyahu's priorities changed due to external forces. Instead of advancing the military operation, the focus became on releasing the hostages and alleviating human suffering. It may turn out that transferring the residents of Gaza to the south to destroy the north was a strategic mistake, and Netanyahu may reach the end of his blind alley such that he will not be able to achieve his first military goal.

Source: Sama News