Netanyahu is looking for an ambiguous victory... and the army supports him to restore its image

Despite the announcement by the cabinet leading the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip that it had drawn up a plan for the deployment of forces during the truce and a plan to resume the war after its end, and statements by Netanyahu, Minister Yoav Galant, and State Minister Benny Gantz, insisting on resuming the war “until If the truce lasts ten days.” Many voices have begun to rise, warning against a long war and that the goal is to serve personal, not national, interests. These voices demand that a way to stop the war be found.

Strategic affairs analyst at Haaretz newspaper, Amir Oren, said that after about 50 days of war, only 10 percent of Hamas’ fighting force had been destroyed, no collapse of the movement had been diagnosed, and no group of hostages had been liberated in an operation and also no prominent figure in the first echelon of the Hamas leadership was killed. The analyst stressed that the Gaza war is considered one of the longest wars and was in vain. “The 1956 Sinai War lasted less than a week, while the 1967 war lasted only six days, and the October 1973 war did not complete three weeks. In total, these three major wars took Five weeks, while the 2023 war in Gaza can today be called a six-week war, and if Netanyahu does not achieve his demands for it, it may become a six-month war, or perhaps 12 months.

Prolonging the war

Channel 13 television political commentator Rafif Drucker wrote that a senior minister in the Security Ministerial Council told him that Netanyahu is trying to prolong the war as much as possible. Because this is in line with his interest, indicating that Netanyahu in the Gaza war is a different Netanyahu than the one we know, who is afraid of military risks. He is forced to defeat Hamas militarily, regardless of how much time it takes, and the more time it takes, the more he can express his astonishment at the preoccupation of some with internal politics at a time when “our soldiers in Gaza are fighting.”

Drucker believes that Netanyahu's interest may coincide with the interest of the Israeli army, which cannot be satisfied with anything less than a complete defeat of Hamas after the great failure it suffered on October 7. He says that this coincidence of interests may lead to the continuation of the war for many months, during which the residents of the “Gaza envelope” will not be able to return to their homes, while the state will be left with a large economic deficit. Because Israel is not built for a long war of attrition, extending over its entire area.

Netanyahu's survival campaign

Uri Misgav, a journalist, university lecturer and leader of the protest demonstrations, wrote in Haaretz that Netanyahu is now in a campaign, but it is not an election campaign. Because he has no real possibility of winning the elections. On the contrary, this is a survival campaign aimed at preventing the holding of elections and prolonging his hold on power. Misgav said: “The public relations film that was filmed at the military base (Aleichem), like in every of his appearances, Netanyahu repeated his only message, which is... We will not stop the fighting. For him, the war must continue forever; therefore, to the surprise of the Americans and other parties that support Israel, clear and realistic goals were not set for it, no strategy for withdrawal was formulated, and the next day was not discussed.”

Misgav said, “The statements of Minister Gallant and the army’s senior leadership that the fighting will continue for a year serve Netanyahu’s benefit, and in all cases they require strategic and public discussion.” It must be clarified if Israel is built for a year-long war, and what this means for hundreds of thousands in reserve, and for those who go on leave without pay, and what impact this will have on the unemployed, the market and the economy, and those evacuated from the south and north.

He asked: “Again, what is the goal?” What is the practical explanation for destroying Hamas' authority and removing the threat from the Gaza Strip? What are the plans for the next day? This is how sound and rational countries behave, and not like the one that was kidnapped by a hysterical family” (meaning the Netanyahu family). There is also the issue of the dead.

The number of Israeli deaths must be revealed

Misgav said that he conducted an examination that showed that since October 9, 101 soldiers had fallen on the southern and northern fronts. Since the beginning of the ground operation on October 31, 77 soldiers have been killed in the south and north. He added: “This number, which will increase, must also be before the eyes of all Israelis, regardless of their position on the importance of the ground operation and the need to resume it after the completion of the kidnapped deal. The continuation of the war prevents the resumption of Netanyahu’s trial, the formation of an official investigation committee, and the exit of Gantz and his friends from the broad and stable coalition they formed for the war. 

The war prevents the expected resignation of the senior security apparatus, which will leave it exposed, the return of reserve soldiers home and the joining of many of them in a huge protest the likes of which Israel has never seen. Keep this in your minds: As long as it concerns Netanyahu, this war will never end.

In the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Tzipi Chmilovitz, a correspondent in Washington, wrote that the deal to free the hostages came after long pressure from the Biden administration, and that the pressure became more and more intense as the political price the president paid for his support for Israel became clearer. Images from Gaza dominate the American media, and polls show that Biden is rapidly losing the support of his Democratic base as he enters a critical election year. Although Biden does not back down from his full support for Israel, gaps have arisen between him and Netanyahu. Biden has held 13 conversations with Netanyahu since October 7, visited him in Israel and embraced him warmly, but today he is shifting to constantly urging him to rein in his bombing in Gaza. 

Although Biden and his aides have said time and again that they are not telling Israel how to respond to the massacre, a number of senior American officials have indicated that they “will not be disappointed” if the truce turns into a more permanent ceasefire. More than that, officials in the White House told the New York Times that Biden hopes that the release of the hostages will be the beginning of progress towards a two-state solution.

Announcing victory

Journalist Yossi Klein also wrote, sarcastically, “This government is ready for the next day.” Netanyahu wants to announce victory. He does not care about the polls and disgust, as he has developed the skin of a crocodile on his body. And he will go until the end, until victory, until we become like Ukraine. We have been kidnapped by those who believe that victory will forgive their negligence and shortcomings. What is victory? His answers are ambiguous. Let him guess, he doesn't know himself. In any case, his victory is not our victory, as the goal of the war from his perspective is to liberate the kidnapped people. The goal of his war is that he has no idea except to provide tranquility for the settlements. Temporary calm. Hamas will die and another organization will rise, with another name and another leader, but with similar goals. In the meantime, we bury our heads in the sand, close our eyes, postpone the required conclusions until the next day, and ignore what is happening in the regions. “We are quick to forget the massacre and the kidnapped people as well.”

Klein also accuses the army of being a partner in interest with Netanyahu this time; “He does not forgive himself for failure and searches for a victory that will restore his standing, at any cost and no matter how long it takes. He relies on the model of the Yom Kippur War (October 1973): defeat, recovery, and then victory that forgets defeat. What will we do with the two million people who are not from Hamas? Are we going to drown them in the sea, declare that there is no solution and no one to talk to, and wait patiently for next October 7? Another government would have sought as short a war as possible and returned to the routine of life. Not the current government. The duration of a war depends on its goals, and when the goal is political survival or victory, the war can last forever.

Source: Arab48