Experts believe that the unexpected successes achieved by Hamas will inspire future generations of Palestinians

Many discussions in the American capital regarding the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip conclude that Israel will prevail in the end, and experts compete to confirm and repeat the fact of its overwhelming superiority over the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) materially and militarily, whether in terms of numbers of forces or armed capabilities of aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and tanks. 

They do not imagine any other result except Israel's victory, and the question remains for them about the time frame for victory and its cost.

In contrast, a growing number of commentators point to the possibility of Hamas's victory or Israel's defeat, and some even assert that Hamas has already won.

Operation "Al-Aqsa Flood" - which began with a surprise attack launched by the movement on October 7  on Israel - resulted in the killing of more than 1,200 Israelis, the injury of two thousand others, and the detention of more than 240 people by Hamas.

This prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to immediately declare that his country was “in a state of war and that the Israeli army would retaliate.”

“Hamas has already won.”

Israel responded with unprecedented attacks on the Gaza Strip, resulting in the death of more than 13,000 people and the injury of nearly 30,000 others so far, with the destruction of the infrastructure in the Strip, including water and electricity stations, schools, and hospitals.

In a previous interview with Al Jazeera Net, former US military intelligence officer Scott Reiter confirmed that the Hamas movement has become more than an organization or group in its traditional physical form.

Reiter said, "Hamas has become a broader concept of the meaning of resistance, and we must remember that it carried out an act that had only been done before by the Egyptian army, which was able to defeat the Israeli side on the battlefield. Hamas already won on October 7, and that cannot be changed."

He pointed out, “When the Egyptian forces crossed the Suez Canal on October 6, 1973, Egypt won. After that, Israel launched strong counterattacks, but that did not change that Cairo was victorious, and the same is true with Hamas today. It was victorious on October 7.” Even if Israel works to destroy the movement.”

In turn, Professor Avraham Shama from Northwestern University believes that regardless of how the Gaza war unfolds and what happened and is happening now, Israel has already lost and Hamas has won.

Shama cited the hundreds of thousands of Israelis leaving their homes in the north and south, moving to relatively safe shelters or centers in the center of the country, the closing of many schools and universities, and the deterioration of the economic situation in general.

Deep and long-term loss

Shama said, "The Israelis suffered another kind of loss, which is a feeling of deep and long-term loss. This loss fundamentally touched their psyche and their sense of collective self and well-being. You can hear it in their voices, their posts, and their choice of words, and you can see it on their faces."

He also pointed out that before the Hamas attack, the Israelis were confident, and they believed that a sudden war like the October 1973 war could not happen again, and that if that happened, their army would eliminate it in its infancy. Then the Hamas attack came after almost 50 years, this was a deep shock to them.

The academic considered that despite “the loss of more than 13,000 Palestinians, the Hamas movement was able to invade a country with a population of more than 9 million people and a strong army, which succeeded in destroying the Israeli psyche and pushing the renewal of the Palestinian struggle to establish an independent state to the global forefront” .

For his part, Professor Stephen Walt of Harvard University said, “And as expected with each side blaming the other, Israel and its supporters portray Hamas as nothing more than a brutal gang of Iranian-backed terrorists who deliberately attacked civilians.”

He added, "While the Palestinians and their supporters acknowledge that attacking civilians is wrong, they blame Israel for imposing an apartheid regime on the Palestinians and subjecting them to systematic and disproportionate violence over many decades. They also point out that international law allows oppressed peoples to resist illegal occupation even if the methods they choose is irregular.”

Walt considered that the new feature of this latest round of fighting is that Hamas achieved almost complete surprise, just as Egypt and Syria did 50 years ago during the October 1973 war, and demonstrated unexpected combat capabilities. The attack caused more damage to Israel than any of its previous wars.

He added that it is clear that the attack shocked Israeli society, and that the ongoing war may also reveal the limits of power. “War is a continuation of politics by other means, and strong countries sometimes win on the battlefield and still lose politically. The United States won all the major battles in Vietnam and Afghanistan,” he added. But in the end it lost both wars.”

In his opinion, Hamas will never be able to defeat Israel in a direct test of strength, but its attack is a tragic reminder that Israel is not immune and the Palestinian desire for self-determination cannot be ignored.

He continues, "It also shows that the Abraham Accords and recent efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are not a guarantee of peace. In fact, they may have made this latest conflict more likely."

Decades of struggle

For his part, John Alterman, head of the Middle East Unit at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, considered that the Israeli army's avoidance of American mistakes had ended.

Alterman said in a report published by the center, “The Israeli army has largely avoided the volatile history that has afflicted the United States militarily since the start of the Vietnam War. The US army has ended the clashes in Lebanon, Somalia, and Haiti without clear victories.”

He added, "The post-September 11 attacks wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Syrian-Iraqi border region, despite huge resources, years of fighting, billions of dollars, and thousands of American deaths, ended in failure to secure victory."

Alterman noted that Hamas' concept of military victory revolves around "achieving long-term political results. Hamas does not see victory in one year or 5, but by engaging in decades of struggle that increases Palestinian solidarity and increases Israel's isolation."

He added, "In this scenario, Hamas angrily rallies the besieged population of Gaza around it and helps the collapse of the Palestinian Authority government by ensuring that the Palestinians view it more as a helpless assistant to the Israeli military authority."

Alterman continues, “At the same time, the Arab countries are strongly moving away from normalization, the Global South is strongly siding with the Palestinian issue, Europe is retreating from ignoring the violations of the Israeli army, and an American debate is erupting regarding Israel, destroying the bipartisan support that Israel has enjoyed in Washington since the early 1970s”.

He said that Hamas, “instead of relying on sufficient power to defeat Tel Aviv, is seeking instead to use Israel’s much greater power to defeat it. Israel’s power allows the country to kill Palestinian civilians, destroy Palestinian infrastructure, and defy global calls for restraint. All of these things advance Hamas’ goals.” 

He considered that "the unexpected successes achieved by the Hamas movement on October 7 will inspire future generations of Palestinians who cherish even small victories despite impossible difficulties."

Source: Al Jazeera