US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced during his visit to Qatar on October 13 that “dealing as usual with Hamas is no longer possible.” Standing next to Blinken was the Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani, who refrained from commenting or delving into details. Blinken's statement was intended to appear "firm" and supportive of Israel.

When asked whether his country would stop hosting the Hamas leadership or sever its ties with the movement, Al Thani replied: “Our focus now is on open communication and trying to end this conflict.” The Israeli newspaper Haaretz says that at the present time, “open communication” between Qatar and Hamas is almost the only hope for the release of Israeli prisoners. Qatar relies on years of providing assistance and support to the Gaza Strip.

The State of Qatar is aware of the American pressure on it to sever relations with Hamas, but it does not pay attention to that. Four years after it was besieged by some of its neighbors to cut its ties with Iran or Hamas, Qatar did not abide by any of these countries’ demands and defied them. The blockade was eventually lifted, and Doha returned stronger to the Gulf and Arab embrace.

“Hamas is not a group of militants that can be eliminated.”

Despite all the American and Israeli pressure on Qatar, and despite all the talk about a “post-Hamas era” in Gaza, Hamas is not just a group of militants that can be easily eliminated or the threat they represent erased, as Haaretz newspaper says. Hamas is a movement that has deep-rooted military and political influence inside and outside Palestine. It has a strong presence in Lebanon, strong relations in Turkey, and representation in Malaysia, Algeria, and perhaps others.

The Hebrew newspaper says that the renewed rapprochement between Hamas and Syria, after it was interrupted in 2012 due to the massacres committed by the Assad regime against thousands of civilians, provided the movement with another option for support. There is no doubt that Iran will agree to host some of its leadership if it needs to.

In the US House of Representatives, there is already a proposed law that would allow sanctions to be imposed on countries that aid organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The law is currently under consideration in the Senate, and even if it is passed, it will have a relatively minor impact on countries such as Syria, which is already subject to strict sanctions, Iran, or Malaysia, whose Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, declared that it is a “unilateral law” and that his country Committed only to Security Council sanctions.

The other question is: How will Türkiye act? Despite its agreement to remove Hamas leaders from its lands within the framework of its renewed relationship with Israel, as Israeli newspapers claim, the movement’s representatives are still residing there, after some of them obtained citizenship. The recent statement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Hamas is not a terrorist organization, but rather a national liberation movement and a political party that won the 2006 elections, may reveal and confirm this, as the newspaper says.

But Erdogan does not abide by the US sanctions imposed on Russia due to the war in Ukraine, and circumvents the sanctions imposed on Iran. Qatar, like other Gulf states, does not abide by US sanctions on Russia either, the newspaper says.

Haaretz newspaper says that the fact that Qatar hosts the largest US base in the Middle East, has huge investments in the United States and Western countries, and is one of the main gas suppliers to Europe, may be a buffer against sanctions. The most important question that arises is whether the United States wants, or can, take the next step and transfer its military base to another country, if Qatar strengthens its role and provides shelter and support to the Hamas leadership.

Although Qatar represents the political base for Hamas, Lebanon is currently the most suitable operational base for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, mainly due to its proximity to the Israeli border and their ability to launch direct attacks on it. However, their activity in Lebanon is subject to coordination with Hezbollah, whose considerations are not necessarily similar to theirs, and this stems from their limited participation in the “axis of resistance,” according to Haaretz.

“Hamas will have a role in shaping the political system.”

In 1969, the “Cairo Agreement” was signed between Yasser Arafat and Lebanese Army Commander Emile Boustani. This agreement allowed the Palestinians to bear arms and participate in their national struggle against Israel from Lebanon. It served as the basis for the establishment of “Fatah Land,” or Palestinian resistance, in southern Lebanon, but it was canceled in 1987 by President Amin Gemayel.

It would be naive to assume that Hezbollah, despite its support for the Palestinian cause, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, would help establish “Hamas territory” on the Israeli border, because this could deprive it of a monopoly on the use of weapons against Israel and disturb the sensitive status quo in Lebanon, which Hezbollah is trying to restore. He moves it to his advantage, according to Haaretz. Turning Lebanon into a battlefield for the Palestinian resistance against Israel would undermine the foundations of Hezbollah’s strategy, because it presents itself as a Lebanese organization that maintains the deterrence equation against Israel for Lebanese, not foreign, Iranian, or Palestinian reasons.

However, Hamas can still play an important role in Palestinian politics inside Lebanon, influence Palestinian political behavior in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, and even launch attacks from anywhere on Israel. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the war on Palestinian popular support for Hamas now, and this support may develop and grow in the future.

But when Fatah figures - some of whom hold senior positions in the Palestinian Authority, such as former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad - speak or write about the day after the war, they do not rule out the assumption that Hamas will also have a place and a role in shaping the future political regime in Ramallah. In their opinion, it is necessary for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority to undergo structural and conceptual reform to serve Palestinian interests, and this requires the involvement of all factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to rightfully claim the title of “sole representative” of the Palestinian people. These ideas are not new.

It is noteworthy that Marwan Barghouti, the imprisoned Palestinian leader who is considered the natural successor to the leadership of the Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas, is very close to Hamas. Even seven years ago, Barghouti drafted a strategic document for political cooperation with Hamas. The movement often demanded his release in prisoner exchange deals with Israel, and may even try to impose his leadership the day after the war.

Source: Arabic \Post