Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad: The bombing of Jenin camp has deep political, security and strategic dimensions that aim to complicate the Palestinian scene

Akram Atallah: The raids on Jenin camp may be part of a plan to impose complete control and annex the West Bank

Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya: The West Bank faces a difficult future in light of the developments and will pay a heavy price on the security and political levels

Fayez Abbas: Targeting Jenin camp with shelling is a cheap attempt to confuse the cards, increase tension, and incite against the Palestinian Authority

Dr. Suhail Diab: Netanyahu aims to turn the West Bank into an electoral card that will help him regain his popularity that was damaged during the war

The two recent Israeli airstrikes on Jenin camp in the past two days, which resulted in the martyrdom of 11 citizens and the injury of others, raise fears that the West Bank will turn into a new front after the end of the war on Gaza, in light of the signing of the deal and the implementation of the truce, which places the West Bank in a circle of tension with the escalation of Israeli military operations aimed at consolidating annexation and control.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts, specialists and university professors believe that this escalation in Jenin camp comes within the context of a systematic policy aimed at reshaping the Palestinian reality and weakening the resistance, which reflects broader political and security dimensions, and attempts to impose new facts by controlling the West Bank.

Writers, analysts, specialists and university professors believe that targeting the Jenin camp indicates an Israeli strategy that goes beyond targeting resistance fighters, as Israel seeks to deepen the Palestinian division and undermine trust between the people and their leadership, while these operations coincide with plans to annex large parts of the West Bank, which makes the bombing an additional pressure tool to reshuffle the cards in light of the changing reality after the ceasefire in Gaza.

They point out that the next phase will witness a greater escalation in the West Bank, as it turns into a central arena for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as airstrikes and the use of drones reflect a shift in the occupation’s methods of controlling the land and implementing its expansionist plans.

An old, renewed approach aims to deepen the Palestinian crisis

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad asserts that the two recent Israeli raids on Jenin camp are not an exceptional event, but rather a continuation of an old, renewed Israeli approach that aims to deepen the Palestinian crisis.

Awad believes that the occupation government, since its formation, has adopted aggressive policies that include settlement expansion, land confiscation, forced expulsion, killings, and the destruction of camps, especially in the northern West Bank, and increasing pressure on Palestinians to force them to emigrate.

Awad explains that the bombing of the camp comes in the context of an Israeli attempt to add more ambiguity and complexity to the Palestinian scene, as the goal is not only to target the resistance, but also to strengthen the division and undermine trust between the Palestinian people and the National Authority.

Awad says: “The two raids on Jenin camp that left martyrs and wounded are not just a military operation; rather, they carry deep political, security and strategic dimensions that aim to sabotage the Palestinian scene and plunge it into a sea of chaos and tension.”

Awad points out that Israel seeks through this to weaken the Palestinian Authority and push it into a state of loss of control, which allows the occupation to interfere more in the details of Palestinian life.

Awad explains that the Israeli far right, represented by figures such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, seeks to implement a comprehensive plan to annex the West Bank, either completely or partially.

He points out that these ambitions are manifested through Israeli policies on the ground, such as building settlements, enacting new laws that strengthen the presence of settlers, increasing their numbers, and transforming settlement into a diverse project that includes pastoral, religious, tourist, security, and industrial dimensions.

Awad says: “Although Netanyahu seems more rational in dealing with the annexation file, fearing its negative impact on Israel’s relations with the United States and the normalizing Arab countries, he may make concessions to the extremists in his government to ensure their continued support.”

Awad asserts that “the bombing of Jenin camp is closely linked to the annexation plan, as it is used as a tool to promote this project. The killings and targeting of resistance fighters in Jenin are part of a broader strategy aimed at eliminating any form of Palestinian resistance, and thus facilitating the Israeli annexation project.”

Awad believes that Netanyahu is seeking to calm Smotrich and Ben-Gvir after the Gaza deal, as they are demanding to accelerate the pace of annexation, by offering political and financial incentives that include pumping money into settlements and legalizing illegal settlement outposts.

Awad points out that the annexation process is already taking place on the ground through multiple Israeli measures, including expanding settlements in Area C, increasing the number of settlers, and changing the nature of settlements to make them more comprehensive.

Awad asserts that these policies reflect clear Israeli intentions to impose a new reality that makes the West Bank an area completely under Israeli control.

Awad believes that these policies aim to liquidate the Palestinian cause and turn it into a humanitarian and administrative issue, rather than a political and national issue.

Awad points out that the occupation relies on multiple strategies, including forced displacement, economic pressure, and escalating military operations, to push the Palestinians to give up their historical rights.

Awad points out that Netanyahu finds himself forced to strike a delicate balance between implementing the far-right agenda and maintaining the stability of his government. Netanyahu also realizes that any withdrawal of Smotrich or Ben-Gvir from the government would mean its collapse, which prompts him to make major concessions to ensure their survival, including carrying out military operations such as raids on the Jenin camp to support their political agenda.

Awad believes that the Israeli raids on Jenin camp are not just targeting the resistance fighters, but are part of a broader strategy aimed at reshaping the Palestinian landscape to serve the interests of the occupation. With the escalation of annexation and settlement, the Palestinians are facing an existential challenge that requires a comprehensive political and national response to confront these expansionist policies.

Shuffling the cards in Palestine, internally and externally

Writer and political analyst Akram Atallah asserts that the two recent raids on Jenin camp are part of an Israeli strategy aimed at shuffling the cards in Palestine, both internally and externally, within the framework of a renewed settlement project targeting the West Bank. They may be part of a broader strategic plan that seeks to create a new reality on the ground, as Israel is trying to impose its complete control over the West Bank, including areas witnessing Palestinian resistance, with the aim of paving the way for the implementation of the full annexation plan, which successive Israeli governments have long sought.

Atallah stresses that the Israeli settlement and annexation project is not limited to security and military control, but extends to include targeting the entire Palestinian presence in the West Bank.

Atallah warns that the Palestinians are facing an unprecedented challenge in light of the escalation of repressive Israeli policies, which now aim to end any possibility of resistance to the Israeli settlement project.

According to Atallah, the Israeli raids on Jenin indicate a shift in the occupation’s tools towards a new security and military escalation, within the framework of a strategic vision that seeks to impose comprehensive control over the West Bank and achieve the goals of the larger Israeli settlement project.

Atallah explains that this project is in line with the vision of Smotrich, who previously announced his three options for the Palestinians: immigration, life under Israeli rule without any rights, or death.

Atallah believes that Israel seeks, through these operations, to eliminate any form of Palestinian opposition, paving the way for the implementation of the program to annex the entire West Bank.

Atallah points out that this project is not new, as Israel has been seeking to achieve it since the occupation of the West Bank in 1967, but it has intensified significantly recently with the rise of the influence of the extreme right within the Israeli government.

Atallah points out that the most striking development in the implementation of this settlement project is the use of Israeli aircraft in attacks on Jenin camp.

"This shift indicates a new Israeli policy aimed at imposing complete control over the West Bank, and is a clear indication of the occupation's intentions to escalate military operations as part of a larger settlement project," Atallah said.

Atallah explains that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces an internal challenge in maintaining the support of Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who represent the hardline wing of the government.

Atallah points out that any withdrawal by these two ministers means Netanyahu losing his parliamentary majority in the Knesset, which threatens the survival of his government.

Atallah points out that Netanyahu seeks to compensate for the support of Smotrich and Ben Gvir by adopting security policies that are in line with their vision, but the Israeli project is bigger than just satisfying the extreme right.

Atallah asserts that the ultimate goal of this project is to intensify settlement and gain complete control over the West Bank, within the framework of a general Israeli vision aimed at consolidating settlement hegemony and imposing a new political reality.

Military escalation to appease the Israeli far-right

Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, confirms that the West Bank faces a difficult future in light of regional and international political and security developments.

Abu Badawiya explains that the Palestinians in the West Bank will pay a heavy price on two levels: security and political, as a result of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as well as with the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, who has tendencies that support expansionist Israeli policies.

In the short term, Abu Badawiya expects the West Bank to witness intensive military operations against the Palestinian resistance, noting that this escalation aims to appease the hardline Israeli right, led by figures such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, especially in the wake of recent resistance operations, such as the recent hotel operation.

Abu Badawiya points out that right-wing voices within the Israeli government, and even from members of the Likud Party, are calling for a military escalation targeting cities and camps such as Jenin, Nablus, and Tulkarm, to neutralize the resistance in the northern West Bank.

In the medium and long term, Abu Badawiya believes that the West Bank will face serious political challenges, as the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to gradually implement annexation plans, especially in areas classified as “C.”

Abu Badawiya points out that these plans also include significantly reducing the powers of the Palestinian Authority, so that it becomes a purely civil administration, providing services to the Palestinian population such as education and health without any manifestations of sovereignty.

Abu Badawiya explains that Israel seeks through these policies to achieve multiple gains, including complete control over the land, and reducing the role of the Palestinian Authority, while placing the latter in charge of managing the affairs of the civilian population.

Abu Badawiya points out that this comes with Israeli calls to revoke the residencies of West Bank residents who hold other nationalities, including Jordanian citizenship, in a move aimed at reducing the number of Palestinian residents able to demand political or sovereign rights.

Abu Badawiya points out that Trump's return to the US presidency may push the situation in the West Bank towards further deterioration, as Trump is expected to support Israeli annexation plans and provide additional facilities for expanding settlements.

He points out that this American support is accompanied by American and international pressure on the Palestinian Authority, which will find itself in a difficult situation, as it will be forced to reduce its role to a civil administration, while losing any manifestations of sovereignty in Areas A and B.

Abu Badawiya explains that Israel may resort to additional measures such as annexing all of Area C, while tightening the noose on the Palestinian Authority in other areas.

Increase pressure on the camp and fuel tension

Israeli affairs expert Fayez Abbas confirms that the two recent raids on Jenin camp are not a new development, as the camp was previously bombed before October 7, 2023, but they aim to stir up tension, confuse the cards, and increase pressure on the camp, especially in light of the security operation being carried out by the Palestinian security services in its vicinity.

Abbas believes that Israel is cheaply trying to shuffle the cards and exploit the Palestinian security services' operation to accuse the Palestinian National Authority of besieging the camp, while Israel is bombing it from the air.

Abbas points out that Israeli incitement against the Palestinian Authority and refugee camps in the northern West Bank is increasing systematically, with the Israeli government and pro-settlement media playing a major role in fueling these tensions.

Abbas did not rule out that Israel would escalate its military operations to the level of the intensive bombing witnessed in areas such as Jabalia and Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip, citing the control of the fascist right in the Israeli government and the indifference of Israeli society to the consequences of these operations, especially with regard to the killing of children and the destruction of infrastructure.

Abbas explains that the Israeli media is working to distort reality by completely ignoring the crimes committed in the Gaza Strip, as no pictures or reports are published documenting the destruction and genocide against the children of the Strip, which creates internal media collusion that gives the government cover to continue these policies.

Abbas points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying hard to convince Smotrich not to withdraw from the government, especially after the recent prisoner exchange deal.

Abbas hints that Netanyahu may have promised Smotrich strategic concessions, including allowing the incoming US administration led by Donald Trump to annex areas of the West Bank, strengthen settlements, and lift sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on settlers.

According to Abbas, Smotrich is pressuring Netanyahu to implement a more stringent policy toward the West Bank, demanding that areas such as Nablus and Jenin be turned into "closed military zones" similar to what is happening in the Gaza Strip.

Abbas points out that these statements reflect the extremist tendencies of the Israeli government, which seeks to achieve political gains at the expense of security and stability in the Palestinian territories.

The pivotal arena for determining the future of the Palestinian cause and conflict

Dr. Suhail Diab, a professor of political science and expert on Israeli affairs, believes that the West Bank is the pivotal arena for determining the future of the Palestinian cause and the conflict with Israel.

Diab stresses that the geographical and demographic importance of the West Bank makes it the primary factor that will determine the outcome of the conflict, not Gaza, nor the interior in the year (48), nor the diaspora.

Diab points out that the West Bank occupies a strategic geopolitical position for both the Palestinian and Israeli sides. For the Palestinian people, the West Bank represents the basic pillar for achieving the two-state solution project that includes the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. As for Israel, it sees it as an opportunity to end the Palestinian issue once and for all by imposing its geographical and demographic control over it.

Diab explains that the current transitional phase, which comes after the ceasefire in Gaza, will witness a major Israeli escalation in the West Bank, as Israel is trying to weaken the Palestinian resistance there, and ensure the continuation of the state of war and tension that serves the interests of Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Diab explains that the Israeli plan in the West Bank includes adopting different security escalation strategies than what was usual, as the next stage will witness the intensive use of drones and remote-controlled missiles, in addition to raids and traditional military operations.

Diab explains that this escalation aims to maintain the state of war, which helps Netanyahu maintain the cohesion of his far-right government, and to calm the hardline electoral base, which demands more repressive measures against the Palestinians.

Diab points out that decision-makers in Israel have come to see the need to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians instead of managing it as was the case in previous decades.

Diab asserts that the West Bank will become the most volatile arena after Gaza, as Israel will work to undermine any form of Palestinian resistance through what it calls “demographic treatment,” which includes forced displacement, oppression of the population, and reducing the administrative powers of the Palestinian Authority.

According to Diab, Benjamin Netanyahu is relying on multiple strategies to maintain his power amid internal and external challenges. On the domestic front, Netanyahu is trying to prevent the collapse of his government by appeasing the extreme right led by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, by adopting escalatory policies in the West Bank.

Diab points out that Netanyahu realizes that the withdrawal of these two ministers from the government means losing his parliamentary majority in the Knesset, and thus the collapse of his government.

On the external front, Diab explains that Netanyahu is using the escalation in the West Bank as a bargaining chip with the incoming US administration headed by Donald Trump, as he hopes to trade the West Bank in exchange for other strategic gains, such as dealing with the Iranian nuclear file or securing broader US recognition of Israel’s policies in the region.

Diab explains that Netanyahu is seeking to divert attention from his government's failures in Gaza by focusing more on the West Bank, and that Israel sees the West Bank as a more dangerous front in the near future.

Diab points out that Netanyahu used this report to justify the escalation of military operations in the West Bank, and to show that the war with the Palestinians is not over yet, as Netanyahu wants through this escalation to divert attention from his political and military failures in Gaza, and prevent the formation of any official investigation committees into his performance in the last war.

Diab asserts that Netanyahu aims to turn the West Bank into an electoral card that will help him regain his popularity, which was damaged as a result of the widespread criticism he was subjected to during the war on Gaza.

He explains that escalation in the West Bank, whether in the form of air strikes or intensive military operations, will allow Netanyahu to portray himself to Israeli society as a strong leader capable of dealing with security challenges.

Diab believes that Netanyahu is also seeking to prevent the Israeli home front from slipping into division, as many expect Israel to witness a wide-ranging internal reckoning after the war ends.

Diab points out that the Israeli media and military authorities are waiting for the right moment to open the files of failures related to Netanyahu and his government’s performance during the war.

Diab points out that Israel may exploit this situation to pass plans to annex Area C in the West Bank, while focusing on weakening the Palestinian Authority in Areas A and B, which will further complicate the political scene in the West Bank.

Diab believes that Netanyahu is seeking to exploit this stage to strengthen his stay in power, whether by satisfying the extreme right or by achieving political gains on the international scene, but he faces internal and external challenges that may undermine his political future.