The Lebanon War is approaching... and its timing depends on the results in Gaza In light of Israeli threats... and despite Iran's hesitation

Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah have entered into a state of continuous daily clashes, the first of its kind since the end of the July 2006 war. Despite this situation, the breakthroughs that have occurred have not led - so far - to a comprehensive confrontation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Observers and analysts believe that the ignition of the front remains dependent on the developments of the Gaza battle and the results it will lead to. Currently, estimates are converging that “the scenario of war with Lebanon still exists, and its chances have even increased after Israel reconsidered its defense policy following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and its refusal to return to managing the conflict according to the equation that was approved before October 7 last.” 

During the past few days, Israel crossed the “red lines” drawn by the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and he warned that crossing them would ignite the front on a large scale, the most important of which is carrying out operations outside the “rules of engagement” and targeting Lebanese civilians, and the military advance in Gaza.

However, Nasrallah did not carry out his threats, despite the heavy costs and the loss of 75 of his fighters in the south. In this context, there are those who believe that there are factors pressuring Hezbollah not to go too far, including that Iran - as it seems - does not want to open a new front, before the picture of the war in Gaza becomes clear.

Here, former MP Ali Darwish, who is close to the Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, believes that “the meetings and contacts conducted by Prime Minister Mikati before and during the Arab Summit have relatively protected Lebanon from sliding into war, but there are no firm guarantees to avoid falling into the forbidden.”

Darwish confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat, in an interview with him, that the Prime Minister “discussed during the meetings he recently held with Arab leaders and international officials Lebanon’s official and popular position, and he informed everyone that no one has an interest in expanding the scope of the conflict, because its results will be disastrous for the region, but this will not prevent Lebanon from defending itself against Israeli attacks.” He then pointed out that “the countries concerned with what is happening seemed to understand the Lebanese position and President Mikati’s demand to curb Israeli recklessness... but they did not provide permanent guarantees.”

Preemptive strike

On the other hand, it is true that the two speeches delivered by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah during the past two weeks were characterized by a calm tone, but they did not dispel concern about the possibility of continued escalation in the south, which portends that matters will go down the drain. Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Center for Strategic Affairs in Beirut, does not rule out the possibility of war breaking out with Lebanon as a result of the Arab uprising due to the humanitarian catastrophe taking place in Gaza and the high number of victims. Nader explains to Asharq Al-Awsat, “What is worrying for us lies in Israel’s reassessment of the security issue and the panic experienced by the residents of the northern settlements and the psychological effects of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on them, and how they imagine that Hezbollah will enter their areas as happened in the settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip.” ». Nader added that Israel “has entered the stage of reconsidering all of its defense policy and security doctrine,” stopping at what was leaked by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant about “the possibility of launching a pre-emptive strike on Lebanon, but American intervention is still curbing this possibility until now.”

The big confrontation

Meanwhile, Israeli officials are not content with military threats, but rather are waging psychological warfare against the Lebanese people. Indeed, the statements of Benjamin Netanyahu, his Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff were almost devoid of threats to strike Lebanese infrastructure and bomb the capital, Beirut, if Hezbollah fulfilled its promise to strike Tel Aviv and strategic sites deep inside Israel. Regarding this matter, Dr. Riyad Kahwaji, Director of the “Near East and Gulf Foundation for Military Analysis,” said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, explaining that “the hypothesis of the outbreak of war between Lebanon and Israel is still very strong and capable of combustion at any moment.”

Kahwaji continues, stressing that “as long as there is daily bombing on the border between Lebanon and Israel, the possibility of a mistake occurring that leads to a slide towards war and a major confrontation remains.” Then he continues: “There cannot be daily bombing operations and we expect things to remain under control.”

According to Qahwaji’s opinion, “Hezbollah, like Israel, violated the rules of engagement that had prevailed since the end of the July 2006 war... and this happens when one of them finds himself suffering from enemy strikes.” He also pointed out that “(Hezbollah) dealt harsh blows to Israel by targeting its exposed sites, based on its ability to monitor the movements of Israeli soldiers, and killed a number of them, and this is a painful matter for the Israelis.”

Establish the balance of power

In any case, “the period after October 7, 2023 will not be the same as before,” in the words of some observers of the developments of the war on Gaza and Lebanon fronts. The Israeli army, which received the strongest blow since its founding, will seek to restore its shattered image in front of its society. Within this framework, Dr. Sami Nader stresses that “there is a conviction among the political and military leadership in Tel Aviv that it is not possible to return to managing the conflict as it was before, and this puts on the table the resolving of security files by force... From here comes the internal and external warning to Hezbollah not to fall into the Israeli trap.”

Nader then points out that Iran “has no interest in engaging in the war, because it now finds itself winning points, and it is now seeking a ceasefire and stabilizing the balance of power that prevailed before last October 7.”

While there are many questions about what Iran will do if Israel succeeds in eliminating the Hamas movement in Gaza, and whether it will use the Lebanon front through widespread intervention by Hezbollah, Dr. Nader believes that Iran “is not ready to sacrifice Hezbollah.” even if Hamas loses the war.” However, he added, saying: “Iran may sacrifice the party in one case, which is if Tehran itself comes under fire, and (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu goes so far as to direct strong military strikes inside Iran... but so far US President Joe Biden is still curbing this Israeli impulse.”

Excessive force

On a parallel level, Israel realizes that the war on the northern front is no picnic, and its cost will be double compared to its battle in Gaza, but the Israelis may accept paying the prices instead of remaining in constant anxiety. This is precisely what was mentioned in reports and studies prepared by decision-makers in Tel Aviv.

In this regard, Dr. Riyad Qahwaji notes that “the Israeli army is seeking to restore its prestige after Operation (Al-Aqsa Flood), and resorts to excessive use of violence, exaggeration in response, and committing massacres against civilians in Gaza, but its biggest problem remains on the northern border, as it has not yet been able to dealing with it... These fears are increasing among the residents of the northern settlements, who refuse to return to them as long as the threat (Hezbollah) is still present.” Here, Qahwaji stresses that “these fears have begun to push the Israelis to demand an end to the party’s presence as a basic condition for their return to these settlements.”

Worst case scenario

What is worth noting here is that since the start of Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood,” the Israeli army has evacuated more than 10,000 Israelis from the settlements located near the Gaza envelope to the city of Eilat overlooking the Red Sea in southern Israel, and also evacuated 60,000 settlers from compounds near the border with Lebanon into Israel.

According to Qahwaji’s opinion, “the settlers’ anxiety about returning to their areas in the north may push Israel to carry out major military action with (Hezbollah) immediately after the end of the battle in Gaza,” warning that “we may find ourselves facing this scenario when Israel feels that it is now in control” on the situation in Gaza.

Destructive war

Also regarding the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant warned, during his recent tour on the northern front with Lebanon, that “(Hezbollah) is close to committing a major mistake, which will lead to turning Beirut into a second Gaza.” Gallant continued: “I say to the citizens of Lebanon that (Hezbollah) is dragging Lebanon into a war that may break out, and it is making mistakes... And if it makes these mistakes here, who will pay the price? Firstly, they are the citizens of Lebanon, and what we are doing in Gaza we know how to repeat in Beirut.” . Then he continued, threatening that Israeli pilots “are sitting inside the cockpits of planes preparing to head north, and we have everything necessary to do the same thing we do in the south.”

It is true that these threats by Gallant come in the context of psychological warfare against the Lebanese people, but they may turn into a reality. Hence, military experts agree that the potential war will be a devastating war, given the advanced weapons that will be used by both sides, that is, Israel and Hezbollah. Therefore, Qahwaji warns that “(Hezbollah) will use all the strategic weapons available to it, including precision missiles, drones, artillery, and perhaps an air defense weapon.” He points out that “Israel will resort to intense aerial bombardment and fire belts like the ones it uses in Gaza, in addition to destroying residential complexes and buildings, striking Lebanese infrastructure, committing massacres, and using a scorched earth policy.”

The element of surprise

This dark picture is depicted in the minds of the Lebanese who are watching around the clock the massacres in Gaza, the suffering of its people, and the destruction of hospitals, schools, and places of worship. Therefore, voices are growing louder warning “Hezbollah” against being lured into a disastrous war.

Once again, Kahwaji warns that Israel “will benefit from the Lebanese divisions over the war, to reinforce internal division and increase pressure on the party, especially since a large part of the Lebanese people will hold them responsible for engaging in the war, and of course, Israel will exploit that and exacerbate the suffering of the Lebanese people.”

Israel realizes that the war on the northern front is no picnic and its cost will be double compared to its battle in Gaza

On the other hand, observers of developments in military operations on both the Lebanese and Israeli sides assume that the Hebrew state has become more prepared than ever before for the possibilities of war. This is because it no longer fears the element of surprise that exhausted it in Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood.” Rather, it monitors any movement, not only at the line separating it from Lebanon, but also in the Lebanese villages and towns close to occupied Palestine. Therefore, Kahwaji recalls that “the Israeli army has mobilized more than 200,000 soldiers on the front with Lebanon, in addition to declaring a major alert in the air force and missile force. As for the worst scenario, according to estimates, it is an Israeli incursion into a ground invasion of Lebanon.”

...and immigration

Finally, the Hebrew state is currently facing the dilemma of the migration of thousands from its land to other countries. Information indicates that more than 230,000 Jews have left Israel since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, and the number of departures is expected to rise with the continuation of the war on the Gaza Strip, the escalation of tension on the northern front with Lebanon, and the continuing confrontations in the occupied West Bank.

Here Qahwaji says: “If war breaks out, God forbid, Israel will announce its readiness to enter by land.” It is expected that “it will resort to creating a new reality in the area south of the Litani River, so that this war will be more fierce and bloody than the 2006 war, especially since the Israelis will work to return the settlers to their areas in the north, and prove to them that it is capable of protecting them, and it will also try to restore confidence in its ability.” The army will deter, protect Israeli society, and encourage those who immigrated from Israel to return to it again.”

The state’s plan for confrontation... “ink on paper”

> In parallel with the efforts made by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to spare Lebanon the danger of an Israeli war and its devastating repercussions, the specialized ministries and departments have placed their employees in full readiness in anticipation of any emergency. However, these preparations do not rise to the level of imminent danger, and remain in vain in the absence of the necessary equipment.

In this regard, the head of economic bodies in Lebanon, former Minister Mohamed Choucair, said during an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that these preparations “are still ink on paper... If war occurs, we will not have a basic foundation to stand on.”

Choucair added, “People do not have the money to be able to withstand, and merchants do not have sufficient capital to import goods and store them for a long period, and the materials stored in warehouses are not sufficient for more than a month or two in the best of circumstances, but the biggest disaster lies in the scarcity of fuel.” Which is not enough for more than two weeks. I believe that if a naval blockade is imposed on Lebanon, we will fall into a major catastrophe, and then all the factories that need fuel will stop working.”

Indeed, the damage resulting from the interruption of fuel is not limited to stopping laboratories and factories, but will also hinder the movement of citizens between regions, and will inevitably lead to a power outage. Choucair - who served as Minister of Communications between 2018 and 2019 - believes that “the major catastrophe will be the communications outage and the inability to operate electricity generators in the main exchanges and in the two cell phone networks, which may lead to the isolation of Lebanon from the world.”

Economic bodies are currently holding weekly meetings on a regular basis to keep pace with developments and research the options presented in light of the state’s resignation from its mission, or its inability to deal with developments due to the lack of material and logistical capabilities. According to Choucair, “The plan drawn up by the state is insufficient to deal with the disaster if it occurs, and it is difficult to implement it in the absence of funding. Moreover, more than half of the Civil Defense ambulances and firefighting engines are out of order, and the government says that it will allocate $700,000 to the Civil Defense if war breaks out, but unfortunately these mechanisms need between one and two months to be repaired... Does it make sense for the amount to be allocated when War will happen?

Then the former minister points out that “all the machinery and equipment belonging to the municipalities are out of service, including the municipality of Beirut, which is considered the largest and most responsible among all the municipalities in Lebanon.”

If Lebanon is unable to keep up with the war, how can it deal with its consequences?

Here Choucair states that “Lebanon’s situation in 2023 is completely different from what it was in 2006, and therefore it will be in a major and unaccounted for crisis after the war.” He adds, “During the war, brotherly and friendly countries may prevail over the humanitarian factor and try to help civilians through field health institutions, medicines, and treatments for the sick and injured, but the difficult question is, who will rebuild Lebanon after the war?... We are now in a different situation and circumstances than we were before.” 

Source: Asharq Alawsat