Forever war?... Israel faces the risk of a long, bloody rebellion in Gaza

American and Arab officials, diplomats and analysts said that Israel risks facing a long and bloody insurgency if it defeats Hamas and occupies the Gaza Strip without a credible plan to withdraw and move towards establishing a Palestinian state in the post-war period.

Two American officials, four officials from the region and four diplomats familiar with the discussions said that all the ideas put forward by Israel, the United States and Arab countries so far for managing the post-war phase in Gaza have not received widespread support, raising fears that the Israeli army may be exhausted in the future in a long-term security operation.

While Israel maintains control over northern Gaza, some officials in Washington and Arab capitals believe that Israel is ignoring the lessons learned from the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, when rapid military victories were followed by years of violence and extremism.

Diplomats and officials say that if the Hamas-run government in Gaza is overthrown and its infrastructure and economy destroyed, an extremist fundamentalist trend among an angry population could lead to an uprising targeting Israeli forces in the Strip's narrow streets.

Israel, the United States and many Arab countries agree on the need to overthrow Hamas after its attack on southern Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 240 hostage. But there is no consensus on an alternative to replace it.

Arab countries and their allies in the West have said that the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, is the natural candidate to play a larger role in Gaza, which has a population of about 2.3 million.

But the credibility of the authority, which is run by the Fatah movement led by President Mahmoud Abbas (87 years old), was severely damaged by its loss of control of Gaza to Hamas in the 2007 conflict, and by its failure to stop the spread of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and its accusation of corruption and inefficiency.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the weekend that the Palestinian Authority in its current form should not take responsibility for Gaza. He stated that the Israeli army is the only force capable of eliminating Hamas and ensuring that terrorism does not return. Following Netanyahu's statements, Israeli officials insisted that Israel does not intend to occupy the Gaza Strip.

Mohammed Dahlan, who was a security official in Gaza until the Palestinian Authority lost control of the Strip to Hamas and whose name was suggested to take over the post-war government there, said Israel was wrong if it thought tightening its control over Gaza would end the conflict.

Dahlan added from his office in Abu Dhabi, where he now lives, that Israel "is an occupying force and the Palestinian people will deal with it as an occupying force."

He added that Hamas leaders and fighters will not surrender, but will prefer to blow themselves up rather than surrender.

Dahlan pointed out the lack of vision for the future of Gaza among Israel, America and the international community, calling on Israel to stop the war and begin serious talks about a two-state solution.

US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu on Wednesday that occupying Gaza would be a "big mistake." Diplomats say that the United States and its allies do not yet see any clear road map from Israel regarding the exit strategy from Gaza, except for the stated goal of eliminating Hamas. American officials are pressuring Israel to present realistic goals and present a plan on how to achieve them.

The Israeli government did not respond to requests for comment on its post-war plan in Gaza. The United Nations and the Red Crescent say that the operation launched by Israel in Gaza in response to the October 7 attack has led to the death of more than 12,000 people so far and the displacement of more than a million.

While some American officials insist on Israel's right to defend itself, they worry that the rising civilian death toll could radicalize more Palestinians and push new fighters into the arms of Hamas or armed groups that will emerge to replace it in the future, according to a source familiar with  American policy making process.

More than a dozen Gazans interviewed by Reuters said that the Israeli invasion is generating a new generation of militants.

Abu Muhammad (37 years old), a government employee in Jabalia refugee camp, stated that he would prefer death to the Israeli occupation.

He told Reuters, refusing to reveal his full name for fear of reprisal: “I am not (a member of) Hamas, but in days of war we are all one people, and if they eliminate the fighters, we will carry rifles and fight... The Israelis may occupy Gaza, but they will never feel safe, not for a day.”

US-led talks

Two American officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that US discussions with the Palestinian Authority and other Palestinian parties and allies such as Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar about a post-war plan in Gaza are still in their early stages.

A senior American official said: “We have certainly not yet reached the stage of making any effort to promote this vision to our regional partners, who will ultimately live with it and implement it.”

While Biden insisted that the war must end with a “vision” for a two-state solution, which would make the Gaza Strip and West Bank a Palestinian state, neither he nor his senior aides provided any details on how that would be achieved and did not even suggest resuming the talks.

Some experts believe that any effort to revive negotiations is far-fetched, for reasons including, in particular, the poor morale of the Israelis after the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, as well as the morale of the Palestinians after the Israeli retaliation in Gaza.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official who specializes in Middle East affairs and currently works at the Atlantic Council think tank, said: "One of the many tragedies of the terrorist attack carried out by Hamas is that it fundamentally undermined the Palestinian cause and caused a setback (in terms of the effort) to establish an independent, sovereign state."

According to an informed source, Biden may decide on a more modest initiative that could include a path to eventually resume negotiations. Biden's aides realize that Netanyahu and his far-right coalition government, which rejects the idea of establishing a Palestinian state, have little desire to resume talks.

As Biden seeks re-election as president next year, he may be reluctant to lose pro-Israel voters who will see him pressuring Netanyahu to make concessions to the Palestinians.

In a speech he delivered last week in Tokyo, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken clarified Washington's red lines in Gaza, saying that the administration opposes the forced displacement of Palestinians from the Strip, or any reduction of its area, or its occupation, or Israel imposing a siege on it. He also said that Gaza cannot become a platform for terrorism.

Blinken has repeatedly stated that Washington would like to see a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority eventually manage the Gaza Strip unified with the West Bank.

The credibility of the Palestinian Authority has diminished under Abbas, who has run it since 2005, with the decline of hope for a path leading to achieving the two-state solution stipulated in the Oslo Peace Accords in 1993.

American officials say that these mechanisms need to be changed. Some diplomats have stated that a leadership change within the Palestinian Authority may be possible with Abbas remaining in a ceremonial position. A senior European diplomat said another step under discussion is to give the Palestinian Authority a major role in distributing post-war aid in Gaza to revive its legitimacy.

In response to a question about these discussions, a senior official in the Palestinian Authority said that the return of authority to Gaza is the only acceptable scenario and will be discussed with the United States and other Western powers. He refused to comment on the proposal that Dahlan or someone else take over the leadership of a Palestinian government.

Some senior Palestinian officials, including Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh, said that the Palestinian Authority would not return to ruling Gaza on the back of Israeli tanks.

Diplomats said that Western partners and some Middle Eastern countries had submitted a proposal to form a transitional administration of technocrats in Gaza for two years, supported by the United Nations and Arab forces.

But diplomats said there is resistance from major Arab governments, such as the Egyptian government, for fear of being drawn into what they see as the Gaza quagmire.

Regional powers fear that any Arab forces deployed in Gaza will be forced to use force against the Palestinians, and no Arab country wants to put its army in this position.

No agreement on leadership

Although Abbas is not very popular among many Palestinians, there is no agreement on who will replace him in the future.

Dahlan is likely to be accepted by Egypt and Israel, but although he worked closely with the United States during his period in charge of security in Gaza, an American source said that Washington would have some doubts about his return to power. There is a long-term hostility between him and Abbas, the inner circle of officials in the Palestinian Authority, and also with Hamas supporters.

Dahlan led a wave of arrests and repression against senior Hamas leaders in 1996 after a series of suicide bombings against Israel.

An Emirati official said that Abu Dhabi will support any post-war arrangements agreed upon by all parties to the conflict and supported by the United Nations to restore stability and achieve a two-state solution.

Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader who has been imprisoned in Israel since 2002 on charges of murder, is very popular among many Palestinians, but some in Washington consider it an impractical proposal because the Israeli government will not want to release someone it accuses of having “blood on his hands.” .

A US official said that choosing a leader for Gaza would be complicated because each regional player has his own favorite personalities and interests. The United States will ultimately support any leader who has the support of the Palestinian people, allies in the region, and Israel.

“There is clearly a dire need to rejuvenate Palestinian leadership, but getting into that again is very difficult,” said Joost R. Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group.

He said that Arab countries could use their veto power against any candidate they did not like, and Hamas, which portrays itself as the leader of the struggle for Palestinian independence, would likely win any elections.

There are great risks that the conflict could spread to the occupied West Bank and outside Israel.

Arab officials and diplomats say that no such amount of concern has been shown about the spread of military action across the Middle East since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Whatever Biden's diplomatic decisions, his aides say he has no interest in drawing the United States into a direct military role in the conflict, unless Iran or its regional proxies threaten American security interests.

“There are no plans or intentions to deploy US military forces on the ground in Gaza, either now or in the future,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters this month.

Source: Reuters + Annahar Alaraby