Because of the war on Gaza... expectations of the disintegration of the Netanyahu government

As the fifth week of the aggression draws to a close, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu finds itself in a minefield whose features have been defined and led by the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle, which revealed the largest intelligence, security, political and operational failure facing Israel.

Israel went to war against Gaza amid a state of political polarization and societal rift, deepened by the government's plan to make amendments to the judicial system.

While Netanyahu - who refused to bear personal responsibility for the failure on October 7th - chose to form a national emergency government to frame an image of “national unity,” while intensifying bombing and raids, amid material and human losses incurred by Israel, which are kept secret under military censorship.

What is going on in the corridors of the war government in Israel?

Aside from the military censor’s scissors, many shots of the leaders of the emergency government and the “war cabinet” showed the scenes of the disputes between Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and the head of the “National Camp,” Benny Gantz, regarding personal responsibility for failure and failure, harmony with the American administration, and obtaining international support. For the war, support that seemed to be eroding amid disagreements and signs of a clash between Netanyahu and the administration of President Joe Biden.

Even during the battles and the ground incursion, Netanyahu did not hesitate to criticize the military leadership and hold it responsible for the failures. This proposal was met with a firm and defensive response from Gantz and Gallant, which indicates that the emergency government is not unified, and reflects the state of uncertainty and differing positions regarding the conduct of the war and the development of the ground battles in The file of Israeli detainees remained with Hamas.

Political analyst Akiva Eldar believes that Israel entered the ground battle in Gaza reluctantly, as the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle forced it to fight a battle that it had always intended to deport during previous combat rounds, due to the doubts that aroused the political level regarding the impossibility of resolving the battle, and these are the same doubts that raised the level Military Council regarding the security and military future of Gaza, if the scenario of dismantling Hamas’ military capacity succeeds.

Eldar believes that the political differences in Israel will surface clearly as soon as the war ends, which Netanyahu seeks to prolong and keep burning on a low flame, in order to ensure his stay in the prime minister’s chair. He is also prepared to clash with President Biden’s administration if the United States intensifies its pressure. On Israel to end the war.

Is Western support about to stop?

Analysts agree that the hour of Western and even American support is about to end, in light of the popular movement around the world denouncing the Israeli war on Gaza and supporting the Palestinian people.

The former Israeli consul in New York, Alon Pinkas, explained in an article in the Haaretz newspaper that the Biden administration is putting pressure on Netanyahu to cease fire, and this ceiling may rise to the point of demanding an end to the war, which may push the Israeli prime minister into a clash with Washington. Not in order to achieve war goals, but for the sake of his personal political interests.

The US administration continues to provide Israel with political support to enable it to continue the fight against Hamas. Gildad Shavit, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University, says, “Nevertheless, Israel must avoid taking American patience for granted, and must take into account that at a certain time, and perhaps soon, the American political clock and the Israeli military clock will not be in sync.” 

Shavit explained that the right-wing government headed by Netanyahu lacks legitimacy, especially in a state of emergency and war, as it is a failure and unable to carry out its tasks and serve civilians, but despite that, it will continue to struggle to survive and challenge the opposition parties, whose strength is growing during the war and have become candidates to win and form the next government if elections are held. early.

Al Jazeera Net's political analyst pointed out that there are signs of opposition to Netanyahu even within the Likud Party, which is not unlikely to rebel against its leader and overthrow him, especially with the rise of voices opposing the government that has failed to meet the needs of citizens, and is betting on the issue of Israeli detainees for narrow political interests, noting that 66% of the Israeli public supports going to early elections immediately after the end of the war.

What is the future of ground war from the Israeli point of view?

The doubts that Israel had during combat rounds over a decade and more about the difficulty of resolving the ground battle in Gaza are revealed on the ground, in light of the fierce battles that the Palestinian resistance is waging with the Israeli army forces in the northern Gaza Strip.

Amos Harel, a military analyst in Haaretz newspaper, said, “It is true that Israel is still far from subjugating Hamas, and it seems that the movement’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, is underground in the tunnel network in a safe place, and he does not intend to order his men to stop the fighting.”

Accordingly, the military analyst believes that there are still three main problems for Israel related to the ground incursion battle:

Military superiority does not translate into the surrender of Hamas, which is fighting fiercely.

The Israeli army is also almost inactive in the southern Gaza Strip, where civilians have been displaced, and it will have to account for their presence later, especially since the humanitarian situation there is getting worse and is expected to become more complex with the coming of winter.

This war also opened with Hamas' significant superiority in the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operations.

How does the Israeli government deal with the issue of detainees?

Israeli analyzes agree that Netanyahu is maneuvering and evading negotiations with Israeli detainees, given that he is not willing to pay the price of a prisoner exchange deal, for fear of compromising his political future, and thus he is still promoting his going to war in order to liberate the detainees.

This proposal was expressed by Nahum Barnea, a political analyst in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, who explained that the negotiations to liberate the detainees and the exchange deal are progressing slowly, despite the widening popular demand in Israel calling for reaching a deal, even if the price is high.

Barnea believes that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is the one who controls and directs the negotiations, and also controls the propaganda and narrative in this file, as he wants to release the Israeli detainees in stages, in order to ensure longer periods of ceasefire, and to release more Palestinian prisoners in groups and in a gradual manner.

What do the features of the end of the war look like?

Whatever the results of the war, which will end sooner or later, due to the decline and erosion of support even from Washington, Amir Oren, a strategic and security affairs analyst at the Walla website, says, “Even if an Israeli achievement is recorded in the war, it will not be enough to cover up the failure to warn and prevent The surprise attack launched by the Al-Qassam Brigades on the “Gaza envelope” and the south on October 7th.

Oren also believes that the results of the war on Gaza will not cover the defeat of the Israeli government and its president, Netanyahu, in the battle of “Al-Aqsa Flood,” while on the other hand, he believes that “even if Hamas leader Sinwar did not live to see the end of the war, he succeeded in defeating the Israeli government, and made Netanyahu reduce Israel, whose population has been emptied from the Western Negev and Northern Galilee, is the largest internal displacement it has witnessed since the 1948 war.

Oren believes that the Netanyahu government cannot talk about any achievement or victory, and it bears responsibility for failure, and then it may disintegrate after the end of the war, because the political leader is responsible for studying the security situation in depth, or at the very least “preserving the strength and greatness” of Israel, This is exactly what Netanyahu did not do since his government was sworn in until last October 7.

Source: Al Jazeera