Calculating the gains and risks in the US administration’s position on the war in Gaza

International and internal pressures are pushing the Biden administration to search for a way out of the war.

Since the first day of the war, the Biden administration has shown exceptional support for Israel at all political, diplomatic and military levels, promoted Israel’s right to defend itself, supported the Netanyahu government in its goals to destroy Hamas and its military structure, provided Israel with advanced weapons and unprecedented military aid, and took military steps. 

Intensive efforts to prevent the escalation of the war included strikes on Iranian agents in Syria, the deployment of two aircraft carriers and a nuclear-powered submarine in the region, and it sided with Israel in rejecting UN, international and Arab calls for a ceasefire until all the hostages were released, and in accusing Hamas of seizing civilians in Gaza as Human shields. It obstructed efforts in the Security Council to issue a resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza and the protection of civilians.

This war has made all countries of the world stand on their nerves in a state of anticipation and anxiety about how this unequal war is proceeding, and the Israeli brutality that carries suspicion of committing war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and forced displacement, the way it can be ended, and the plans for after the end of the war.

With the dangers of expanding war in the region, and the spread of anger across the capitals of the world in demonstrations in unprecedented numbers, the question arises: What can US President Joe Biden, who is most capable of restraining Israel and using his political weight to impose a ceasefire and establish peace, do? In the post-Hamas period and the resumption of a political process that achieves some rights for the Palestinians, the American administration is implementing its promises to proceed on the path of the two-state solution. But the United States has calculations of gains and losses in this war, and the development of events requires it to carefully review these calculations.

  Gains accounts

The United States agreed in its goals with Israel's goal of dismantling Hamas, destroying its military structure, and reducing its relations with Iran and other resistance factions. Military leaders realize that this goal takes time and has a high cost. The Biden administration gives the green light to achieve these goals, but it stressed in its call to Israel to avoid civilian casualties “as much as possible.” Although this call appears to be a call to protect the lives of the people of Gaza, it is also a call to the Israeli army to be patient and plan carefully without recklessness that leads to losses among the Israeli military  inside Gaza.

Despite the multiple pressures that Biden faces internally and externally, he realizes that a ceasefire does not only mean the defeat of Israel, but it also means the defeat of the United States, which faces many of the same Iranian and terrorist threats.

Biden enjoys great popularity in Israel as Israel's most important ally and supporter, especially after his visit to Tel Aviv and his participation - in an unusual precedent - in the meetings of the war government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Analysts say that Biden can use this political influence to pressure the implementation of important initiatives, especially since the lives of tens of thousands in both Israel and Gaza are at stake.

It is certain that the Biden administration will allow Israel to achieve some achievements and deal a fatal blow to Hamas in a way that will enable Israel to promote victory in its war, and then demand that it extend the humanitarian truces until it reaches the request for a ceasefire.

Analysts say that Netanyahu wants to continue the war and promotes that the ceasefire means the victory of “Hamas,” and restricts Israel’s hand in confronting other threats on the northern front with Hezbollah, but it also threatens his political future and the investigations that await him related to the failure to anticipate an attack. Hamas” on October 7th and in relation to the corruption accusations it faces. This is also what could factor into the calculations of American gains, as the continued support for the Israeli Prime Minister could end with the end of the battle and leave Netanyahu to face his fate with cases, investigations and accusations.

American calculations expect that Israel will have a new leader after the war, and it hopes that this new person will realize that the only way to preserve the safety of the Israelis is to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians.

Some officials in the American administration believe that the chances of achieving an Israeli-Palestinian peace after the war are favorable, and another group wants to allow time and prepare the stage for the emergence of other leaders, as both sides (Israeli and Palestinian) lack credible leaders, and therefore the Biden administration is calculating the creation of conditions that would encourage the emergence of leaders capable of making strong, pro-peace decisions after the end of the war.

American pragmatism

Washington blessed the Israeli military operations to target Hamas leaders and destroy the movement’s military infrastructure, but it has recently tended to carry out them more precisely without destroying Gaza and turning its entire neighborhoods into rubble. It advised Israel to use smaller bombs following the use of bombs weighing more than a thousand pounds in Targeting Jabalia camp, then pressured to allow a humanitarian truce, which decreased from the requirement to last three days, then 12 hours, and ended with a four-hour tactical truce.

One of the priorities of the Biden administration is the success of the hostage release negotiations, a file that took up a large part of the intelligence and diplomatic operations and the shuttle tours of senior American officials, which began with the tours of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, then the Director of US Intelligence, William Burns, and then the expected visit of the White House Coordinator for Middle East Affairs, Brett McGurk. He arrives in Israel on Tuesday as part of a visit to several countries to reach an agreement that guarantees the release of many hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

McGurk will first visit Brussels to hold talks with NATO and European Union officials, then visit Israel and meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and security and intelligence officials, and then travel to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. The White House refused to comment on reports of an agreement that could lead to the release of 80 hostages, most of them women and children, held by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

If Washington succeeds in securing this deal, it will bring the Biden administration a political victory that can be exploited forcefully in the face of angry demonstrations, in the face of international and national criticism, and in the face of the progressive movement within the Democratic Party. It will enhance his chances in his electoral campaign and promote that he protects every American at home and abroad.

In order to calm the international community and Palestinian anger and encourage some Palestinian leaders to work with the American administration, American officials are putting forward some ideas to absorb the anger, including issuing public statements about the need to curb settler violence and stop building settlements, and sending signals such as preparing steps to reopen the American consulate in Jerusalem “in the near future” . It should take the step of abstaining from voting in the United Nations Security Council on resolutions calling for a ceasefire instead of using the right of veto.

Risk calculations

The United States' patience with Israel in the Gaza war cannot last forever, in light of the huge numbers of civilian casualties as the war enters its second month and internal preparations for a fierce electoral battle with 12 months remaining. Biden does not want to go into battle while carrying on his neck the weight of the American failure in Afghanistan, the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war without a glimmer of hope for ending it, and then the Israeli war against Hamas, which brings dangers from all directions.

Moral responsibility: With the loss of more than 11,000 civilians due to the ongoing Israeli bombing of civilians, the siege of hospitals, and the cutting off of aid delivery under Israel’s intransigence, all of them place the burden on the United States, which has always called for moral values and democratic principles. The matter is not limited to civilians in Gaza, most of whom are children and women, but statistics indicate that 100 United Nations employees were killed, in addition to the killing of 30 journalists. Accusations are increasing against the United States of collusion and supplying Israel with bombs and artillery shells with which Israel kills innocent people.

  The results of the vote in the United Nations General Assembly, with 120 countries voting in favor of a ceasefire, indicated the isolation of the United States on the international stage, with the French position shifting significantly to step out of the United States’ mantle, and strongly demanding a ceasefire, and the warnings of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, of the brutality of the Israeli bombing. Who turned Gaza into a cemetery for children. Then the strong statement of the joint Arab-Islamic summit, which raised the White House’s fears of the countries of the region moving away from the United States, the increasing Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and the Arab and Islamic rapprochement with both Russia and China, in addition to complicating and perhaps freezing the peace paths that the Biden administration dreamed of achieving a historic political achievement, in concluding further normalization agreements between Arab countries and Israel. The risks may threaten agreements already concluded.

Netanyahu seeks to exploit the war against Hamas to prolong the period during which he can avoid facing difficult questions about the failure to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7. He insists that the war against Hamas may take weeks and months, and he is trying to promote himself within the American society, through interviews with a number of American news networks, pushed the Jewish lobby organizations to put pressure on the Biden administration and raise fears of increasing anti-Semitism, and behind the scenes there are fears that Netanyahu - if he feels his end is approaching - will exploit skirmishes on the northern front between “Hezbollah” and the Israeli forces in Exploiting a mistake or miscalculation would spark a war with Hezbollah and Iran behind it.

All calculations of gains, risks, and pragmatic, political, and electoral goals will govern how history will write these events, and what the legacy of US President Joe Biden and the image of the United States will be from a moral standpoint.

Asharq Alawsat