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PALESTINE

Thu 09 Nov 2023 12:31 pm - Jerusalem Time

Politico: Why doesn't Biden stop this war on Gaza?

Politico magazine published a report prepared by Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward, and Lara Seligman, in which they said that the Biden administration is facing pressure from progressive Democrats, Arab officials, and even some American diplomats to help end the war between Israel and Hamas. But the White House doesn't necessarily want to stop the fighting, at least not now. Even if he did, Israel likely would not listen to him.


In conversations with eight diplomats, analysts and administration officials, in addition to reviewing what the American, Israeli and Arab leaders said or did not say publicly, the picture becomes clear about Joe Biden and his administration’s refusal to call for a ceasefire.


As the body count rises, the calculations could change dramatically. For now, here is a sobering review of the decisions being made from Washington to Amman:


When US officials lay out their goals in this new conflict, the report said, they mention four specific details: making clear that the United States strongly supports Israel, preventing the fighting from spreading beyond the Gaza Strip, releasing more than 200 people detained by Hamas, and helping to ease the humanitarian crisis. . But stopping the war between Israel and Hamas is not on the list.


This is primarily because the United States agrees with Israel's goal of destroying Hamas, even if it is not entirely clear what that will ultimately look like.


When President Biden was asked last month by CBS News whether he believed “Hamas should be completely eliminated,” he said: “Yes, I think so.”


Currently, the US administration is pressuring Israel to allow a cessation of fighting for humanitarian purposes and to be cautious in targeting it. But it will not support a long-term ceasefire.


“We still do not believe a general ceasefire is appropriate at this time,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday. He added: “When we talk about a general ceasefire, what that means is a complete cessation of fighting throughout Gaza, which we believe at this stage benefits Hamas.”


Retired Major General in the Israeli Army, Yaakov Amidror, the Israeli National Security Advisor from 2011 to 2013, said that his country’s government does not currently feel any real pressure from the United States to end the war. He said that the only pressure “is to reduce the number of civilians who must be killed, and the second pressure is to allow more humanitarian aid to be provided to civilians in Gaza.”


What is not said publicly is that destroying, or at least weakening, Hamas is in the interest of the United States on multiple levels.


Hamas is a proxy for Iran, the United States' main adversary, so dismantling it would weaken Tehran. Hamas is also seen as a destabilizing force in a region that remains critical to US economic and security interests. One American official, who requested anonymity, added that Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist, making it a major obstacle to the two-state solution.


In addition, a public break with the Israelis could harm US relations with a partner that is crucial to the front lines, including intelligence sharing. Israel may be ignoring the United States anyway, but Washington has important tools it can use to pressure Israel beyond the words that officials are using now.


Washington could threaten to cut off military aid to Israel, stop defending it at the United Nations, or abandon long-term efforts to help Israel normalize diplomatic relations with Arab countries. Some Democrats in Congress are even considering legislation to limit intelligence sharing with Israel. However, the Biden administration strongly rejected such moves.


Even in normal times, the Israeli government has not always listened to Washington. For example, US officials have for years unsuccessfully urged Israel to stop building settlements on West Bank land claimed by the Palestinians. When Biden was Vice President, the Israeli government announced the construction of new settlements during his visit to Israel.


  And there are Arab officials. Many Arab governments secretly hate Hamas, not least for its Islamic roots and ties to Iran. So they wouldn't mind seeing the movement weakened. “There was a big difference between the public and private reactions of Arab countries,” a senior Israeli official told reporters in Washington last month. Most Arab countries consider Hamas an “enemy and want to deter it.”


Despite their dislike of Hamas, many Arab leaders are privately and publicly urging the United States to pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire. This is partly due to their concern that Arab citizens' anger at images of dead and wounded Palestinians will turn against them. “By sending a lot of equipment and a lot of money to Israel, [the United States] is encouraging them to put pressure and escalate instead of looking for a solution,” said an Arab diplomat based in Washington.


Israel does not seem to be heeding the warnings of people like Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi to “stop this madness.” Officials insist they are doing what they must to neutralize civilians, but the level of Palestinian suffering is increasingly difficult for Israel to explain.


Although Iran is not directly involved in the war, it is deeply interested in the conflict. Iran supports Hamas with funding, weapons, and training, and has long sought to expel American forces from the Middle East.

Israel does not seem to be heeding the warnings of people like Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi to “stop this madness.” Officials insist they are doing what they must to neutralize civilians, but the level of Palestinian suffering is increasingly difficult for Israel to explain.


Although Iran is not directly involved in the war, it is deeply interested in the conflict. Iran supports Hamas with funding, weapons, and training, and has long sought to expel American forces from the Middle East.


Tehran took advantage of this moment to create more instability in the region. Its proxies have attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria with drones and missiles at least 38 times since October 17, even as the Pentagon sends an increasing amount of firepower to the region.


But US officials privately say they believe Iran is simply trying to increase pressure on Washington, not provoke a broader regional war. The best evidence for this calculation is the nature and scale of the attacks, especially compared to Iran's response to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, in 2020.


On the one hand, Iran's proxy groups have relied almost exclusively on cheap, one-directional attack drones and missiles to launch mostly unsuccessful attacks. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder described such moves as “harassment.” Although Ryder said the United States would hold Iran responsible for the strikes, Tehran has not claimed responsibility for them.


By contrast, in January 2020, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at multiple US bases in Iraq, sustaining traumatic brain injuries to more than 100 US soldiers. Iran said it was retaliation for the killing of Soleimani.


Tehran did not use the current crisis as an opportunity to escalate its harassment of commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, behavior that had previously drawn condemnation from the United States. The limited American response, or lack thereof, to the recent attacks is also telling. Biden ordered an air strike on October 26 on two facilities in Syria used by Iran-linked groups, but the attacks did not kill any militants.


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Politico: Why doesn't Biden stop this war on Gaza?

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