Trump faces agreement obstacles: Hormuz, the right, and Israel threaten settlement

Washington Message

Washington, Said Arikat – 22/6/2026

News Analysis

As US President Donald Trump seeks to solidify a fragile ceasefire and turn it into a permanent agreement with Iran, three major obstacles have emerged threatening the entire negotiation process, according to a report published by "The Washington Post". While Tehran demonstrates its control over the Strait of Hormuz by partially disrupting navigation, clashes continue between Israel and Hezbollah, and the anger of the Republican Party's right wing, which accuses the President of making free concessions, escalates. These challenges reveal the fragility of Trump's negotiating position after a short war that destabilized energy markets and proved Iran's resilience, raising existential questions about the future of the fragile nuclear deal.

Vice President J.D. Vance meets with senior Iranian officials in pursuit of an agreement that prevents Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. However, American leverage has significantly diminished since last February, when the Iranian leadership feared that strikes would lead to the collapse of the regime. Today, after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the Islamic Republic has succeeded in demonstrating its institutional cohesion and even re-establishing its legitimacy under fire. Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert, comments that "Trump's room for maneuver has become extremely narrow; any attempt to pressure Iran practically means resuming the war or imposing a naval blockade, which carries economic consequences he wants to avoid at all costs." He concludes his warning with a harsh statement: "We have undermined our own deterrence with Iran."

Concessions made by the White House to revive negotiations have become a central line of attack for Trump's opponents. The President no longer demands regime change in Tehran and has shown understanding for Iran's need for ballistic missiles, which has alarmed Washington's allies in the Gulf and Israel. While these positions weaken American negotiating power, internal pressures on Trump are escalating ahead of the November midterm elections, as a "Fox News" poll showed that 58 percent of voters believe military action against Iran was wrong, compared to only 35 percent who approve of the President's handling of this issue. Nevertheless, Vance expressed cautious optimism, saying that the administration hopes to make progress on the nuclear and Lebanese files "to make the entire region safe and stable."

The Strait of Hormuz was the most prominent title for the test of strength. Before the war, Iran's ability to close this vital artery, which carries a fifth of the world's oil supplies, was merely theoretical. Now, Tehran has proven its practical ability to lay mines and launch drones to disrupt navigation. The tanker tracking company "Kepler" confirmed a decrease in transit traffic to 20 ships per day, compared to 130 ships before the escalation, indicating that merely threatening is enough to raise insurance premiums and deter captains from taking risks. Trump responded via social media with threats to impose "American transit fees" in exchange for "protection services," deepening the impression of Washington's declining naval dominance.

On the Israeli-Lebanese front, continued clashes threaten to undermine the fragile agreement. Four Israeli occupation soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah ambush on Friday, followed by other Israeli occupation soldiers killed and wounded on Saturday, while US intelligence agencies warn that Tel Aviv may seek to thwart understandings. Sharp criticism was not limited to Democrats but extended to the heart of the Republican camp, when Brian Kilmeade, the "Fox & Friends" anchor known for his strong support for Israel and traditional support for Trump, launched a fierce attack, saying: "If you want Israel to go along with the plan, you have to tell them what's in it. They weren't even part of the talks." This anger reflects growing concern that the President has shifted from a strategic ally of Israel to a mediator – seemingly in the mind of an Israel supporter – biased towards the Iranian proposal, threatening a deep rift within the conservative electoral coalition.

Amidst this, Trump and his team insist that the Iranian navy has been destroyed, that the new leadership under Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is more willing to reform and negotiate, and that Tehran is further away from nuclear weapons. But this narrative clashes with a ground reality that shows Iran holding the keys to energy and benefiting from Washington's hesitation to escalate in a way that would destabilize financial markets ahead of a pivotal election.

Recent developments show that the Trump administration has entered a dark strategic tunnel; its major concessions, from abandoning regime change to understanding Iran's need for ballistic missiles, have emptied its military campaign of its substance. The regime in Tehran, which was thought to be on the verge of collapse after Khamenei's death, has rebuilt its internal legitimacy and cohesion. Thus, Iran has transformed from a party fearing an American strike to a power testing the limits of Washington's deterrence capability, while Trump awaits the repercussions of any new confrontation on oil prices and markets, which have become his only compass in an equation that leaves him no room for maneuver or turning back.

Trump's electoral calculations collided with the wall of division within his camp; the voices that cheered for the air strikes in February have today turned into a torrent of accusations of betrayal after the President publicly criticized Israel and seemed to side with the Iranian narrative in the clashes with Hezbollah. Brian Kilmeade, the "Fox & Friends" anchor, represents a model of rebellion against the President's approach when he stated that Israel was "boxed into an agreement it didn't help draft." This anger reflects a feeling that Trump has given Iran gains disproportionate to the scale of American military sacrifices, threatening a rift in the domestic front ahead of crucial elections.

Perhaps the most dangerous thing revealed by the Strait of Hormuz crisis is that Tehran no longer views the American fleet as an existential deterrent, but rather as a factor that can be circumvented. Partially closing the passage with mines and drones proved Iran's ability to control the pace of global energy markets without entering into a full-scale confrontation. Trump's warnings of imposing American transit fees seemed more like an outlier, at a time when the prestige of naval power, unable to guarantee freedom of navigation, is crumbling. Thus, Tehran now holds the key to the American economy and negotiates on its own terms, having transformed its geographical weakness into a painful economic deterrent weapon that imposes new equations.