Larijani Leads 'Shadow Government': How Iran Prepares for War Scenarios and Succession of the Leader

International press reports have revealed radical shifts in the structure of Iranian leadership, with Ali Larijani, the veteran politician and former commander in the Revolutionary Guard, emerging as a pivotal figure effectively managing state affairs under direct mandate from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This move comes amidst escalating threats of military strikes from the United States and widespread internal protests, prompting the leadership to turn to Larijani due to his extensive experience in national security matters.

Sources indicated that the rise of Larijani, 67, has led to a noticeable decline in the role of President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has faced major political challenges since taking office. Pezeshkian, who always describes himself as a 'doctor, not a politician,' implicitly acknowledged the difficulty of dealing with the complex crises facing the country, delegating many executive powers to the Supreme Leader's inner circle.

Larijani's powers have expanded in recent months to include overseeing the suppression of internal opposition and coordinating relations with regional and international allies such as Russia, Qatar, and Oman. He is also currently managing the sensitive nuclear file with Washington and developing logistical and security plans for governing the country in the event of a direct military confrontation with US forces in the region.

In recent statements, Larijani affirmed that Tehran has used the past months to address weaknesses and enhance its defensive capabilities unprecedentedly. He stressed that Iran does not wish to ignite war but will not hesitate to respond forcefully if attacked, noting that current military readiness surpasses any previous time.

Information from Iranian officials indicates that the Supreme Leader has issued strict directives to ensure the regime's survival if senior leaders are assassinated. These directives included establishing four successive layers of succession for all sovereign and military positions, with each commander required to name four potential replacements to immediately assume their duties when necessary.

Khamenei also authorized a very small circle of advisors to make crucial decisions if he loses contact or is absent from the scene, to ensure no power vacuum. This circle includes Larijani, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, and Brigadier General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who was appointed as the de facto deputy to the Supreme Leader to command the armed forces in wartime.

During a 12-day disappearance last June, coinciding with military escalation, Khamenei secretly named three candidates to succeed him as Supreme Leader. Although Larijani is not a candidate for this position due to not holding a high religious rank, he remains the primary driver of executive and security policies during the transitional phase.

On the ground, Iran has placed its armed forces on high alert, considering US military strikes 'imminent and inevitable' despite ongoing diplomatic channels. Preparations included deploying advanced ballistic missile platforms on the western border with Iraq and along the southern coasts overlooking the Arabian Gulf.

Iranian forces conducted a series of intensive military exercises, including tests of long-range missiles and a temporary closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz. These moves aim to send clear deterrence messages to US bases in the region and affirm Tehran's ability to disrupt global energy supplies if targeted.

Domestically, a strict security plan has been put in place, including deploying special police units and Basij battalions in the streets of major cities to prevent any unrest that might accompany military operations. These measures aim to establish intensive checkpoints and track any elements suspected of cooperating with foreign intelligence agencies to destabilize internal security.

Iranian leadership is discussing 'political survival' scenarios that ensure the continued administration of the state even if the Supreme Leader is killed or key command centers are destroyed. Names like Larijani, Ghalibaf, and Hassan Rouhani emerge as potential leaders of a state administration council, despite challenges related to public acceptance of these figures due to past issues.

International experts believe that Khamenei, by distributing powers, seeks to protect the regime's legacy and ensure a smooth transition of power under complex war conditions. Analysts consider that the Supreme Leader fully realizes that his sudden absence could lead to the disintegration of the regime, and therefore he is working to strengthen the institutional 'glue' that binds the state's pillars.

Larijani's escalating influence was evident in his recent visit to Moscow and meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as his extensive media activity that overshadowed President Pezeshkian's presence. Sources reported that Pezeshkian himself now seeks authorization from Larijani before making sensitive executive decisions, such as lifting internet restrictions.

In an incident reflecting the new balance of power, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi contacted the presidency to inquire about a response to US warnings regarding the execution of protesters. Instead of making a direct decision, Pezeshkian directed the minister to consult Larijani for final guidance, confirming that the real decision-making center has effectively shifted to Larijani's office.

We are prepared in our country, and certainly, we are stronger than before; we do not seek war and will not start it, but if it is imposed on us, we will respond.