Three weeks into the Gaza war, the Israelis have begun to focus on one issue more than others: the fate of Israeli prisoners being held in Gaza. This has made it the most prominent political issue in the Hebrew state currently, especially after the escalation of the movements of the families of Israeli prisoners in recent days.

In the early days of the war on Gaza, relatives of prisoners, especially relatives of civilian prisoners, gathered in Tel Aviv and other cities and tried to draw attention to their plight in mostly quiet demonstrations.

But last weekend, things changed, and the families began demanding the urgent release of the prisoners. Although they did not state that the ground attack on the Gaza Strip endangered the prisoners, they indicated this, according to a report by the British website Middle East Eye.

The families of the Israeli prisoners waited for the appropriate time to expand their movement

It is clear that the families of the Israeli prisoners knew that vocal opposition to the ground attack was not acceptable to the Israeli public determined to take revenge for what happened in the October 7 attack.

Therefore, the families of the prisoners resorted to asking the government and the occupation army to make the issue of returning the prisoners to their loved ones a priority, and then they continued the ground attack and air bombardment on Gaza to subjugate it. It seems that this demand imposed some pressure on the occupation army and on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Subsequently, the occupation army said that launching a ground attack was the way to force Hamas to ease its conditions in any planned deal, but no one announced the nature of the deal that the Israeli authorities wished to conclude. The occupation army claimed that the negotiation of the prisoners was the reason that the ground incursion that began last weekend was limited in scope, and that the Israeli forces did not penetrate into residential areas or Gaza City itself.

Despite the difficulty of determining the validity of the allegations that the ground operation will increase restrictions on Hamas to the point that it will be forced to accept a deal whose terms agree with the desires of the occupation, the Israeli media accepted what the generals said.

As for Netanyahu, the criticism he received from the families of the prisoners was much more severe, and forced him to meet with some of their representatives on Saturday, October 28. It was said that the meeting was difficult, and that the families spoke harshly to him, accusing him personally of being responsible for the entire disaster.

Families of Israeli prisoners then organized a small demonstration in Tel Aviv, expressing a new demand: "All for all." No one specified what this meant in practical terms, but it was understood that they were demanding the release of all prisoners in Gaza, including occupation soldiers, in exchange for the release of all Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

Netanyahu did not rule out releasing Palestinian prisoners in return

The exact number of prisoners held by Hamas and other factions in Gaza is not yet known. The occupation authorities have worked to progressively update the total number, and now say that there are 240 prisoners, including about 30 soldiers.

When Netanyahu was subsequently asked about this possibility, he did not rule it out, and said that it was a possibility on the negotiating table, but he refused to go into any details about the matter.

It is striking that the idea of releasing all Palestinian prisoners is considered taboo in Israel, as some of these prisoners are sentenced to life imprisonment for being accused of participating in attacks on Israelis in the occupied territories during the Second Intifada.

He says that he wants to achieve two contradictory goals: crushing Hamas and releasing prisoners

After the October 7 attack on the Israeli settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip, Israel was determined to achieve one goal: to crush the Islamic resistance movement Hamas.

Israel announced that it intends to completely “cleanse” Gaza of Hamas, whatever the means, and even if it means forcing all of the Strip’s 2.3 million residents to flee to Egypt.

But now, the importance of the other goal has begun to rise, and the release of prisoners has also become one of the main goals of the military operation in Gaza.

However, the two goals contradict each other. No one knows how to truly crush Hamas in house-to-house and street-to-street fighting, while seeking to return Israeli prisoners at the same time. It is extremely difficult, if not impossible.

This contradiction puts Israel in a complex dilemma, especially since the intense aerial bombardment that had the largest share so far of Israel's plan in its attack on Gaza has actually led to the death of more than 8,500 Palestinians, including 3,500 children.

It seems that the occupation inflicted limited losses on the resistance

The American New York Times newspaper said that Washington sent dozens of commando forces to Israel to locate prisoners in Gaza.

The Israeli army claims that it killed about 50 high-ranking Hamas members, and “hundreds” of its fighters. But even if we take these allegations seriously, the number of deaths among Hamas has reached about 500 people, which is a small percentage of victims when compared to the number of children killed in the ongoing Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip, and it is also a small number when compared to the estimates. The number of Hamas fighters, which was 30,000 years ago, may have risen to 50,000, and Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, previously said that if Israel had invaded Gaza, it would have faced about 70,000 Palestinian resistance fighters.

The Israeli media does not care much about the world's opinion regarding the massive loss of life caused by Israel's raids in the Gaza Strip, but the reality is that it should care. World opinion is changing, and the United States, London and elsewhere in Europe, as well as in Turkey and across the Arab world, have witnessed massive pro-Palestinian demonstrations.

At the same time, the rhetoric of Western officials has begun to change. Evidence of this is that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan publicly urged Israel to protect the lives of civilians in Gaza, a notable change compared to the US administration's absolute support for Israel since October 7.

Fears of destabilizing the Arab regimes allied with America and Hamas embarrass Netanyahu

Pressure on Israel is increasing not only from the West, but also from the Arab world. Attacks have begun to come from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where Iranian agents are located.

Also, the massive ground attack on Gaza threatens to destabilize the ruling regimes in Jordan and Egypt. The United States pays great attention to this matter, as it cares about the fate of its strategic allies in Cairo and Amman much more than it cares about the people of Gaza.

Moreover, it is most likely that the ground attack on Gaza will lead to the death of most of the prisoners, and this will be a collective shock for the Israelis, and Hamas has stated that the Israeli bombing has already killed a significant number of them.

Hamas embarrassed the Israeli government and put pressure on it and Netanyahu with a video in the midst of ground battles, which it published on Monday, October 30, 2023, of 3 Israeli female prisoners who demanded that Netanyahu release them immediately.

One of the female prisoners accused Netanyahu of failure, and said that they bear his political, security, military and governmental failure. She addressed Netanyahu: “You want to kill us, you want to kill everyone, you want the army to kill us. Isn’t it enough that you slaughtered everyone? Isn’t it enough that innocent Israeli citizens were killed on October 7? Release us now, release their citizens.” Release their (Palestinian) prisoners, release us, allow us to return to our families, now now now.”

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu responded, describing the video as "cruel psychological" propaganda by Hamas.

Netanyahu said in a post on the “X” platform that Israel will do everything necessary to return the hostages, adding: “I address Elena Trupanov, Daniel Aloni, and Ramon Kirscht, who were kidnapped by Hamas, which is committing war crimes.. I embrace you, our hearts are with you and with the other kidnappers,” stressing: “ We are doing our best to return all kidnapped and missing persons to their homeland.”

The head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, said that the Hamas movement presented a vision that begins “with stopping the aggression, opening the crossings and exchanging prisoners, and ending with opening the political path to the establishment of a Palestinian state and the right to self-determination, but Netanyahu is stalling.”

Here is Netanyahu's likely choice, and will it be effective?

For all these reasons, the report of the British website Middle East Eye believes that it is unlikely that Israel will launch a comprehensive ground attack, and it is likely that the occupation forces see that continuing the war at the current pace - bombing and limited ground incursions, and perhaps dividing the Strip into two parts, and advancing to the outskirts of Gaza City - is... Her best choice.

The number of Palestinian casualties will not be long until it exceeds ten thousand, and international pressure will increase.

The Israelis have pledged a long war, lasting at least a few months. The reserve soldiers prepare for their war on this basis. However, an advanced economy like the Israeli economy will not tolerate this conflict continuing for a long time.

Israeli prisoners

Occupation forces raids led to the killing of a number of Israeli prisoners/Anatolia

Projections already indicated that the post-war Israeli economy contracted by 11% this quarter. If the conflict continues for several months, the crisis in Israel will become much worse. High-tech companies may be forced to withdraw their investments and lay off their employees.

This war has not yet witnessed internal unrest like the one we saw in the 2021 war on Gaza, and demonstrations and riots have not broken out in cities mixed between Palestinians and Jews. However, Israel is fraught with dangerous internal tensions. Palestinian citizens of Israel (about 20% of the population) are expelled from their places of work and from the universities where they study, and are attacked if they sympathize with the victims in Gaza. Accusations pursue them simply because they are Arabs or of Arab origin.

On the evening of Saturday, October 28, crowds of Israelis stormed a university residence in the city of Netanya (central Israel), where Palestinian students reside, and began chanting “Death to the Arabs.”

At the same time, the Israeli authorities promised to deliver 10,000 weapons to Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank, and to ease the regulations imposed on civilians to obtain weapons.

These tensions between different sects of the population in Israel could destroy its economy. Palestinian citizens of Israel (as well as workers from the West Bank) are heavily involved in providing basic services. About a third of doctors in Israel are Palestinians.

If we take these matters into consideration, can Israel really continue its war on Gaza for several months at a time?

The solution is for the international community to intervene or enter into a tragic scenario

For three decades, Netanyahu has bet on preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state separating the West Bank and Gaza, and pitting Hamas against Fatah and vice versa. Things were stable for him, and the plan with which he was dealing with the Gaza Strip was proceeding, until the attack on October 7 occurred.

Hamas remaining in power over Gaza is no longer acceptable to the Israeli people at all. Even if Netanyahu wanted to, it is unlikely that he would be able to manage things in a way that leads to this. Indeed, there is no doubt that he is the most hated person in Israel at the present time. Because he is responsible for the largest disaster the country has witnessed since 1973.

Israel is caught between the desire to keep the prisoners alive by abstaining from a major ground operation, on the one hand, and seeking to continue the bombing campaign to remove Hamas from power, on the other.

Is there a way out of this dilemma? Maybe if the international community intervenes.

The conflict in Gaza has become very much an international conflict, going far beyond the scope of the first and second intifadas and previous rounds of fighting in the Strip. Leaders of Western countries flocked to Israel after the outbreak of war. Some experts believe that this conflict has become an extension of the ongoing war in Ukraine, and Washington's cold war with Russia and China.

Interest in the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has suddenly returned, after the issue had been forgotten for the past two decades. It seems that Washington - or at least the Joe Biden administration - is no longer convinced that the Israelis are capable of managing the conflict on their own.

Some observers believe that using an international force in Gaza (and perhaps an Arab force) may be an acceptable way to end the fighting for Israel and its people, and perhaps for the Palestinians, and even Hamas.

On the other hand, there is a much more evil path, according to the British website: which is to continue a long fight, seek to displace all Palestinians from Gaza, sacrifice tens of thousands of deaths, and risk a regional conflict that may include Jordan and Egypt, and may threaten the existence of Israel itself, according to the British website.

The website says: “This very bad scenario is possible, and we should not ignore the possibility of it happening. But at the same time, we must hold on to hope, and hope that the international community will intervene before things take their worst course.”

Source: Middle East Eye