As the war in Gaza ended its third week, it seemed clear that it would not be an ordinary “round” of recurring rounds of fighting between Palestinians and Israelis. Israel declared it a “long” war, while the Palestinians are straining to catch their breath and stop the war, in the hope that they will emerge with a political outcome that could constitute the incubator for the future of the Strip. This is after it became clear that removing “Hamas” from the equation is a decision that is being implemented, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing the idea of forming an “international coalition” to fight “Hamas,” similar to the international coalition fighting “ISIS.” From the first day of the outbreak of the war, it was clear that the United States was the one that took charge of the response to the Hamas attack, to which several goals were attributed, including attempts to “turn the tables” on the ongoing negotiations in the region, whether in the issue of normalization with Israel, or The Iranian nuclear file. The attack, which shook Israel's image and stability, revealed weaknesses that were covered by unlimited arrogance with a right-wing government, which has become almost certain that it will not continue with its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power, even if the right-wing of Israeli society deepens further. What are the issues at stake in this war? What are its effects at the regional and international levels, as well as on the United States, which enters its election year next month?

If all estimates indicate that the current war in the Middle East will be long, then why threaten to invade Gaza, while many American reports confirm that the Biden administration is concerned about Israel’s lack of achievable military goals in Gaza, and that its forces are not yet ready to launch an invasion? Come up with a plan that is guaranteed to succeed? In discussions with Israeli officials since the start of the Hamas attacks on October 7, American officials said that they had not yet seen an achievable plan of action. President Biden even hinted at this publicly, during his speech in Tel Aviv last week, when he warned that Israel would need “clarity about the goals and an honest assessment of whether the path it is taking will achieve those goals.”

According to analysts and former American military personnel, the United States actually sent a “special operations unit” in an attempt to discover the locations of the hostages and rescue them, amid frantic efforts to avoid sacrificing them if they were unable to be released through the ongoing mediations in cooperation with some countries, including Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, before any invasion. Broad Israeli. However, according to retired American Colonel Douglas MacGregor, this operation failed after the group suffered serious injuries. This indicates that the American forces may have entered an advanced stage of readiness and readiness, in light of the Pentagon’s (US Department of Defense) assurances that Israel was not asked to postpone the ground operation, and that it is up to it to determine its date. This clarification came from Pentagon spokesman General Pat Ryder, following what an American newspaper reported that Israel “agreed to postpone the attack until Washington could send missile defenses to protect its forces in the region.” The report added that Israel takes into account the efforts being made to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, and the diplomatic efforts aimed at releasing hostages held by Hamas.

However, with the possibility of the international climate becoming more complex, Washington fears increasing threats to American forces once the ground attack begins, which has prompted it to accelerate the deployment of about 10 air defense systems, in addition to the naval and air fleet present in the region.

Iran file

As Washington rushed to send its aircraft carriers and forces to the region, and several European countries announced similar steps, multiple messages were sent, especially to Iran, to the effect that the State of Israel was not harmed, and that the management of the conflict files in the region was still under its control. Here, the “other players” remain mere spectators, as evidenced by the extreme weakness in which these powers have appeared, especially Russia and China, which prevented them from playing any effective role, whether to support the Palestinians, or to change the international order (their strategic slogan). What confirms this reality is that the file of “normalization” of relations between Beijing and Washington is proceeding according to the agreed upon program, with the arrival of the Chinese Foreign Minister to the American capital, while the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, meets with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, in preparation for his upcoming summit with US President Joe Biden.

Some believe here that despite the conviction that Iran will not undertake any suicidal action, outside the scope of the “skirmishes” carried out by its militias in the region, the severity of the American statements towards Tehran indicates its fear of the possibility of an unexpected escalation. In the strongest and direct “deterrent” warning from a senior American official to Iran, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Tuesday at the United Nations that the United States will respond “quickly and decisively” to any attack on American forces by Iran or its agents. Blinken continued: “The United States does not seek a conflict with Iran, and we do not want this war to expand. But beware of the mistake of Iran or its agents attacking American individuals anywhere... because we will defend our people.” This went beyond the previous vague warnings issued by Biden about “do not do this,” to discourage Hezbollah or Iran from getting involved in the war between Hamas and Israel.

This step follows Washington's admission that Iranian militias carried out 13 attacks on American forces in the region during the past week. Which prompted US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, on Monday, to say that Iran “in some cases actively facilitates these attacks, with the aim of maintaining a certain level of deniability here, but we will not allow them to do that.”

While the Biden administration wants to deter a second front against Israel from Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, ignoring the response to Iran’s many attacks, in order to avoid casualties among American forces so far, has become an invitation to Iran to continue testing Washington’s intentions. This may lead to her being drawn into a confrontation that she seeks to avoid. But what if Americans were killed, without Iran paying the price? Then the Biden administration must appreciate that the surest step for stability in the region will be America restoring its role as a “deterrent force.”

On the other hand, the warnings also raise in Iran - after it felt the extent of the weakness of its “international axis” (China and Russia) - deep fears that the “ISIS” of its Shiite militias will be the next step, after the “ISIS” of Hamas. This may make it lose its tools, but it may also lead to the future of the entire system being put on the table for discussion.

Colonel Douglas MacGregor (AP)

Aid in exchange for hostages

Washington has pledged that it will push for humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza, in exchange for efforts to release the hostages.

In practice, this establishes the equation of preventing Hamas from exploiting its military “achievement” by achieving political victories, and that the hypothesis of exchanging hostages for prisoners is not under consideration. There is no talk of a ceasefire, at this stage. Indeed, Secretary of State Blinken was forced to talk about truce periods for humanitarian reasons that “must be taken into account,” to allow food, water, and other necessities to reach Gaza, and for civilians to get out of harm’s way. Although he avoided setting any deadline for the truce periods, it is not expected to be a typical ceasefire.

On the other hand, with the increasing number of Palestinian civilian casualties, whose numbers exceeded 22,000 dead and wounded, European Union leaders in Brussels requested a “humanitarian truce” to facilitate the delivery of aid and create safer conditions for the hoped-for release of the hostages, limiting the matter to this aspect only. But US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the administration supports “pause periods” in the conflict to allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza. But he rejected the growing calls for a ceasefire, arguing that such a step now would only benefit Hamas. Kirby added: “We will continue to ensure that Israel has the tools and capabilities it needs to defend itself.” While stressing that Washington had not discussed any “red lines” with Israel, he continued: “We will continue trying to bring in this humanitarian aid, and trying to remove hostages and people from Gaza appropriately,” which indicates that there is a long way to go, in light of the expected results of this war. , on the future of the entire region.

Will the war stop?

American and Israeli officials reject calls for a ceasefire in order to give the Israeli army enough time to eliminate Hamas. But calls for an end to the fighting are growing. This was summed up by the words of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, in his speech before the Security Council. Guterres said that “it is important to acknowledge that the (Hamas) attacks did not occur in a vacuum” and that “the Palestinians have been subjected to 56 years of stifling occupation.” But he added, "The grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the horrific attacks launched by (Hamas), just as these horrific attacks cannot justify collective punishment of the Palestinian people." However, the exchange of veto power in the Security Council between the United States, Russia and China, as happened in recent days, is still in its early stages, which in previous wars witnessed similar votes, which ultimately led to the expulsion of the “PLO” forces from Lebanon in 1982. This is what some believe may be the fate of Hamas forces in the coming period.