PALESTINE

Sat 28 Oct 2023 7:51 am - Jerusalem Time

Will the Gaza war cost Biden the presidency?

As the Gaza war approaches its fourth week, the American street has begun to divide between supporters of US President Joe Biden's policy towards Israel and opponents of it.


Recent days have witnessed a wave of protests and objections, represented by demonstrations calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, and written protests against America’s policy that reached the point of resignation of a senior official in the US State Department due to what he described as a “policy of blind support” for Israel. In return for these movements, there were warnings from the Ministry of Homeland Security of the growing threats facing Arabs, Muslims, and Jews in the United States as a result of what is happening in the region.


At the same time, the House of Representatives was finally able to resolve its crisis and elect a president after more than twenty days of legislative vacuum that prevented the approval of the emergency aid requested by the Biden administration to Israel.


The Washington report, which is the result of cooperation between Asharq Al-Awsat and Al-Sharq, reviews the extent to which the positions of Arab Americans who rejected Biden in the elections affected his chances of winning a second term, and the options before these voters, in addition to American political positions on this issue.


Unwavering support for Israel

Israel ranks first on the list of US aid, reaching $3.3 billion in 2022. The Biden administration has asked Congress for $14.3 billion in emergency aid to Israel, which the Legislative Council has not yet been able to pass due to the absence of the Speaker of the House of Representatives. But that changed with the election of Mike Johnson as Council President. Ghaith Al-Omari, senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says that Johnson “is known for his strong support for Israel,” noting that “the first decision he made was to issue a resolution to support Israel that was approved by the majority of the House of Representatives.” Al-Omari adds, “There is almost absolute support for Israel in the House of Representatives, whether in the Republican or Democratic Party.”


But Muhammad Gula, executive director of Image USA, which coordinates electoral efforts for American Muslim voters, points to a change in the political landscape since 2015 that led to the election of members of Congress who “continued the traditional support for Israel’s policy, but began to talk about the rights of the Palestinians, in addition to “There is a need for a ceasefire, which is the most important thing here.” Gula says: “Although there are a limited number of members of Congress who are calling for a ceasefire, we will continue our efforts to ensure that everyone who supports Israel recognizes at the same time the importance of Palestinian lives.”



While the House of Representatives is witnessing an increase in the representation of Arabs and Muslim Americans, Sally Howell, director of the Center for Arab American Studies at the University of Michigan, considers that “the Senate is far from this representation.” There are no Muslim Americans or Arab Americans on the 100-member council. However, Howell says, “Some senators are adjusting their support for Israel. On the one hand, they offer the traditional firm support for Israel’s claims that it has the right to defend itself, but at the same time they acknowledge the suffering of the Palestinians and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.” We have not heard of similar positions for 15 years, so there is a kind of simple openness in the Senate.”


Howell talks about the slight difference in the positions of the Senate and the House of Representatives due to the difference in representation. She explains: “In the House of Representatives, there are about 16 members demanding a ceasefire, and this is a completely new matter. There's this coalition of progressive, left-wing Democrats in the House who support each other on a wide range of issues, and Palestine is one of those key issues for them. “This is very important, even though these members do not have broad authority.”


American media and Islamophobia

Opinion polls show broad American support for Israel, reaching 51 percent of those who sympathize with Israel, compared to 28 percent of those who sympathize with the Palestinians, according to figures from CBS, in cooperation with YouGov. Al-Omari spoke about the role played by American media coverage, noting that it has always been “more biased towards Israel.”


As for Gula, he considers this reality to increase the importance of the work of organizations such as “Emage USA” in spreading awareness and highlighting issues of concern to Muslim and Arab American voters, adding: “When we look at Wisconsin, there are more than 50,000 Muslim and Arab American voters.” The Arabs will decide who will be the country's next president, as for Michigan, it includes one of the largest Muslim communities in the country, with more than 200,000 registered voters. “The same is true in Pennsylvania and other states... This is important regardless of what the media reflects.”

Howell talks about the recent growing feelings of Islamophobia in the United States, referring to the murder of the Palestinian child Wadih Al-Fayoumi at the hands of an American in the state of Illinois. Howell, who lives in Dearborn, Michigan, talks about a feeling of fear “taking over the Muslim community,” adding, “I hear people in Dearborn talking about how they don’t want to leave right now because they feel afraid.”


The Gaza war and the American elections

With the increasing opposition of Arab and Muslim Americans to Biden’s policy of supporting Israel, some of them vowed not to vote for him or other officials because of these positions. Howell gives an example of this, pointing to the statements of the mayor of Dearborn, who said that “the positions” of federal officials who do not demand a ceasefire and justice for the Palestinians will not be forgotten, adding that “Arab Americans and Muslim Americans in Michigan insist that their officials speak on their behalf in a way that has not been done.” We see it in the past.”




Al-Omari points out a “very encouraging” point, saying, “When I go, for example, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, I see Arab names. 20 years ago when I used to go to these ministries I did not see these names. “The mere involvement of Arab Americans in the political process, whether at the local level or in government at the federal level, gives a voice to the Arab side.” But at the same time, Al-Omari points out that “most of the support for the Palestinians comes from the progressive side, that is, the left of the Democratic Party. This creates a very important voice within the Democratic Party, but on the other hand, it may be very dangerous for us, as a community, to be considered only affiliated with one trend on the political map... This is a double-edged sword.”



Gula considers the Arab and Muslim community a socially conservative community: “But because of the political process and the current political environment, it happens that we fall into the category of the Democratic Party more because this is today’s reality.” However, Gula warned against reversing the current situation, noting that there is a feeling of “betrayal within the ranks of this community today” due to the Democratic administration’s position in support of Israel. Gula talks about an opinion poll conducted by his organization, the results of which showed that if the 2024 presidential elections were held today, 5.2 percent of registered Muslim Americans would vote for Biden, 15 percent for Donald Trump, while 53 percent would vote for a third party, and the rest would abstain from voting. . Gula adds, “The Biden administration has a responsibility to act and demand a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed of the Palestinian people.”


Double standards?

With increasing accusations against the United States of “double standards” in its dealings with the Gaza war, compared to its dealings with the Ukraine war, Al-Omari states that “talking about human rights on the one hand and then applying different practices on the other hand is not only a problem for Democrats.” He added, “The administration of George W. Bush was the administration I dealt with the most that talked about human rights... but when interests conflict with values, interests always prevail.” Al-Omari adds: “Constructive talk or hopes are not a factor when making a military decision or a political decision related to foreign policies.”



But Hawley says that this explanation will not prevent the Arab and Muslim community from feeling “betrayed” because of the administration’s positions, adding: “They feel that the political establishment has abandoned them, especially the officials they elected to represent them... I do not know what it will take to repair this rift.” Which has increased in Michigan, at least among Muslims and the Democratic Party.”


Source: Al-Sharq Al-Awsat




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Will the Gaza war cost Biden the presidency?