Despite the internal discussions and disagreements with the American administration regarding the expansion of the war on the Gaza Strip, military and political sources in Israel confirmed their insistence on moving “at the appropriate time” to the ground invasion, but they talk about making changes in the tactics and planned operations, and preparing the atmosphere for the Israelis that the war will end. Unusually, “it will be long and fraught with great loss of life.” Therefore, it is planned to be gradual.

These sources say that the goal set by the government, which is “to annihilate the Hamas movement and its military capabilities and overthrow its rule,” can only be achieved by a ground invasion accompanied by continued air and sea bombardment, and it may become a house-to-house and tunnel-to-tunnel war.

In light of the development in the military capabilities demonstrated by Hamas fighters in their surprise attack on October 7, the type of bold plans they developed and rehearsed, and the surprising capabilities in collecting intelligence information about Israel, there is a need to carry out the invasion with greater caution. .

The new situation requires certain changes in old plans and the development of new plans, so that they reach all Hamas leaders. No matter how strong and precise the new plans are, in which new weapons are used, the goal of eliminating Hamas “will be a long and complex challenge,” and there is a clear assessment that it will also incur high prices and will not be free of failures and loopholes that make the price even higher.

Military experts point out that the invasion also faces political challenges and significant obstacles. On the political side, there is the American and European position, which opposes any operation that could lead to the widespread killing of civilians, and they consider that the invasion will also cause harm to Israel. Because Hamas says it is well prepared for it, and even hopes to expect the largest losses of Israeli deaths and prisoners.

Experts advise Israel to “take Hamas’ threats seriously,” and not as before. Underestimating the power of Hamas cost Israel a heavy price, the likes of which was only known in the October War of 1973.

For this purpose, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, participated in a very long session of the war command, and stayed until three in the morning, asking many detailed questions about the war plan, and advised not to forget “the laws of war and the commitment of global democracies to human rights and the protection of the civilian population.”

According to a source close to one of the participants in that session, “The Americans seem to have clearly drawn the borders of the State of Israel in this war. And the broad, strong shoulder that President Biden provided to Israel by sending aircraft carriers to the region, and sending a large amount of weapons, including Iron Dome interceptor missiles, and no less important than that, “the legitimacy that the Americans provide in the international arena, and they are not free gifts.”

As for the military obstacles, they are represented by the response of Hamas and other Palestinian factions, which are holed up underground and possess weapons in huge quantities. There is a risk that Hezbollah will intervene, as well. Although France conveyed messages between Tel Aviv and Beirut that both sides are not interested in war, both are wary of violating this pledge and are exchanging missile exchanges “in a quiet fire.” Even if they do not want to, there is always a risk that they will slide into war as a result of an unintended lethal strike (for example, a shell falling on a gathering of soldiers), or of taking a step due to miscalculations.

Currently, the Israeli army is still focusing on Hamas, and prefers not to open a second front in the north. But on the other hand, about 130,000 reserve soldiers are mobilized on the borders with Lebanon and Syria, and spy planes are never absent from the air and respond to every missile directly from Hezbollah positions. According to Israeli sources, Hezbollah is also mobilizing its forces, and there is a tangible movement of armed militias affiliated with Iran in Syria, and it is noted that they are approaching the border to open a third front.

In this regard, the Israelis point to the great American support that was accompanied by a firm request: “Do not start the war with Hezbollah. If it attacks you, we will be together to confront it.”

Israel evacuated 28 towns located within 2 kilometers of this border (in the south, 15 Israeli towns located 3 kilometers from the border with Gaza were evacuated at the beginning of the war, and the evacuation was expanded to include towns located 7 kilometers away), this week.

Source: Al Sharq Al Awsat