Few Israelis have anything close to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's experience working in Gaza. In 2000, Barak was Prime Minister and Minister of Defense when the second intifada broke out in Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and the rest of the occupied territories. Before that, he was commander of the Israel Defense Forces when Israel carried out its first major withdrawal from Gaza Strip cities as part of the first Oslo Accords signed in 1993.

Then in his second term as defense minister, in 2009, Barak oversaw Israel's largest ground operation against Hamas in Gaza to date. Now the Israeli army is preparing for what is expected to be a much larger ground operation in Gaza. Its goal is to “destroy Hamas,” as Benjamin Netanyahu says, which attacked Israeli military concentrations and bases along the border on October 7, 2023, killing more than 1,400 Israelis.

What does Ehud Barak see that Netanyahu does not see in the invasion of Gaza?

Barak says that what happened in the Gaza Strip represents "the biggest failure in Israel's history." Barak adds, according to the British Economist magazine, that the army he previously commanded faces great difficulties in pursuing a determined and well-armed enemy holed up in a small coastal enclave crowded with more than two million people. He is aware of the consequences of the heavy losses that this operation will inflict on both parties. In the first nine days following the Hamas attack, Israel killed more than 2,400 Gazan civilians in insane raids, which Israel claims were against “Hamas targets.”

Barak advises the Netanyahu government not to rush into a ground operation. He says, according to The Economist: “We do not face an existential threat from Hamas. Israel will win this.” Once all the called-up reservists undergo refresher training, Israel can control most of the Gaza Strip and destroy Hamas' power centers and military capabilities "within two to six weeks," he said.

Unlike the major ground operations in 2009 and 2014, when Israel simultaneously entered different areas of the Gaza Strip, Barak believes that the attack this time can be carried out in stages, to reduce the risks, as he put it.

Despite his confidence in the army's ability to "deal a devastating blow" to Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli army will face many restrictions and challenges, according to Barak. Israel admitted that Hamas succeeded in capturing dozens and perhaps hundreds of Israelis. Barak believes that the ground operation should be postponed as much as possible until an agreement is reached to release some of them in a deal.

At the same time, Park argues, Israel must ensure that its actions are legitimate by the wider world. Following the attack by Hamas, most Western governments offered Israel their full support. But Barak warns, "This support also comes with the expectation that we abide by international law in our operations." Adding: "Western support for us will be greatly eroded when footage emerges of destroyed homes in Gaza with the bodies of children and crying old women."

“Hezbollah may have 150,000 missiles directed at Israel.”

Barak sees the US naval presence - on October 14, Washington deployed a second aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean - partly designed to deter external actors from entering or escalating the conflict. But it "also emphasizes the need for Israel to act in accordance with international law."

Israel will have to closely monitor Hezbollah's movements on the northern front. He may have 150,000 missiles directed at Israel. Israel sent troops and tanks to the border in the hope of deterring any attack. Barak says the Hamas attack from Gaza was based on similar plans by Hezbollah to control settlements in the north, but Hezbollah has now lost the element of surprise and Israel is prepared.

He adds: “Israel has no interest in the conflict with Hezbollah at the present time, and I do not think that they will attack now that we have deployed a lot of forces in the north... One of the American aircraft carriers is now looming off the coast of Lebanon, sending a signal to Hezbollah and to its sponsor, Iran.” ".

“Destroying Hamas is unrealistic.”

The Economist says that although Barak strongly supports a ground campaign in Gaza, he criticizes talk of "destroying Hamas" by Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, as well as ministers in his government and some generals. “What does that even mean? Destroying Hamas is unrealistic.” He added: "This is not a believable war goal. Israel's goal must now be clearer. Hamas must be deprived of its military capabilities."

After the October 7 attack, Barak said in press statements: “It is difficult to compare Hamas to any organization we have known in the past, which is like ISIS. Some of them have a better level than they had in the past. It also raised the price and made this attack a success.” "It goes beyond all our failures, we have to take them seriously. They have surprised people with their success."

Barak believes that the ideal outcome that the Israeli government wants, once Hamas's military capabilities gradually and sufficiently deteriorate, is to re-establish the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. The Authority, which was established under the Oslo Accords and runs autonomous parts of the West Bank, was expelled from Gaza by Hamas in 2007. However, he warns that Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, “cannot be seen as returning on the back of Israeli tanks.”

Therefore, a transitional period will be needed during which Israel surrenders to international pressure and hands Gaza over to a peacekeeping force, which could include members such as Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates. They will secure the area until the Palestinian Authority can control it. However, for now “It seems that other countries in the region do not have the desire to contribute forces to such a force,” Barak says.

Netanyahu will be held accountable

Then there is the great reckoning that will happen in Israel once the war is over. Investigations will be launched into who is responsible for the failures in intelligence and planning that allowed Hamas to take Israel by surprise and then gain access to military bases, civilian communities and more.

“There will have to be a much deeper assessment later,” says Barak, and when that happens, he is convinced that the blame will fall on Netanyahu. “It will be clear, above all, that Netanyahu had a flawed strategy of dealing with Hamas, so that he could use it to weaken the Palestinian Authority, so that no one in the world could ask us to hold negotiations with the Palestinians.”

The Economist says that few people know that Netanyahu, who 55 years ago was a commando in the secret reconnaissance unit of the General Staff, was under Barak, who led the unit. Another of the unit's leaders was his older brother, Yoni Netanyahu, who was killed while rescuing hostages at Entebbe Airport in 1976 in Uganda. Yoni was one of Barak's closest friends. But Benjamin was one of Barak's fiercest opponents.

Netanyahu caused the Israeli army to be torn apart

In 1999, Barak led the Labor Party to electoral victory, ending Netanyahu's first term as prime minister. But when Netanyahu returned to office in 2009, Barak served as defense minister for four years. But since he left parliamentary politics in 2013, he has become increasingly disconnected from Netanyahu.

Now 81 years old, Barak is active in the protest movement that has taken to the streets over the past nine months, trying to prevent Netanyahu's government from making constitutional changes to limit the powers of the Supreme Court.

Barak says that Netanyahu ignored repeated warnings from military commanders that the divisions caused by Netanyahu were also tearing apart the army. During the protests, thousands of reserve soldiers and officers said they would refuse to serve or volunteer in the Israeli army if the constitutional changes were passed.

Barak believes that Netanyahu is directly responsible for the worsening crisis, as the Israeli strategy towards the Palestinians has backfired. Because the state abandoned its basic obligation to its citizens, which is to keep them alive, and this was the worst type of neglect caused by Netanyahu in the history of Israel, Barak says.

Source: The Economist