After twenty years in power and a desire to stay in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is once again heading to southern Turkey , which was devastated by the February 6th earthquake, to launch on Friday the official campaign for his re-election, which seems to involve high stakes.
As he did in Gaziantep, the head of state intensified before the elections promises of reconstruction and visits to the tents of the survivors of the February 06 earthquake (more than fifty thousand dead, three million displaced, and hundreds of thousands of afflicted families), embracing veiled elderly women and children.
But he is not sure that this apparent sympathy is sufficient this time in the face of the economic crisis and inflation that leads to the impoverishment of the middle classes and the consequences of the earthquake that affected the economy and employment in the 11 affected governorates.
In the face of Erdogan, 69, three candidates whose candidacy was approved this week by the Electoral Commission intend to compete with him, hoping for the success of the opposition.
An opinion poll conducted by the "TAG" research institute revealed that 51.8 percent of voters hope that the leader of the Republican People's Party (the main opposition party) Kamal Kilicdaroglu will win the presidency, compared to 42.6 percent who support Erdogan.
Kilicdaroglu who appears smiling on his campaign posters under the slogan "Hello, I am Kemal, I am coming!" A six-party coalition from the left to the nationalist right. He has the tacit support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (10 to 13 percent of the electorate), whose leader Selahattin Demirtas is in prison.
While the head of state tours the country and is omnipresent on television, Kilicdaroglu, 74, an economist and former civil servant, addresses every segment of society on Twitter via video messages from his dimly lit kitchen, addressing conservative women.
The number of views for his latest recording reached 3.3 million Thursday.
Political risk advisory group Eurasia said in a note dated March 22 that since announcing his candidacy, the CHP chairman has continued to "broaden his base" (from 30 to 40 percent of intentions to vote) while Erdogan's approval rating is declining (from 60 to 50 percent). .
She added, "The main challenge for Kilicdaroglu is to attract anti-Erdogan voters - who make up the majority - without starting battles within the opposition."
And Kemal Kilicdaroglu will have to reckon with the re-emergence of Muharrem Ince, a candidate who was defeated by Erdogan in 2018 and decided to spoil the game.
Ince, who disappeared without greeting his supporters on the eve of the first round, met the CHP candidate this week, with the aim of reaching a possible agreement.
But for now, according to policy experts including those at the Metropol Institute, this return could appeal to young people who see the CHP chief as not very charismatic.
However, the youth vote will be an important component of this election. Seventy percent of the electorate is under the age of 34, and six million young Turks will vote for the first time on May 14.
Finally, former MP Sinan Ogan (far-right) is supposed to appear in the first round.
In addition to the serious economic crisis (inflation rate exceeded 50 percent and reached more than 85 percent in the fall) affecting family income, the earthquake revealed the loopholes of the strong state that Erdogan dreams of.
It took three days for relief to begin in a highly centralized country, and then there were failures in the distribution of aid, especially tents. But above all, the collapse of housing exposed the neglect of the real estate and construction sectors that have driven growth under Erdogan for 20 years.
And the president, who campaigned in 2003 on the ruins of the 1999 earthquake in Izmit (northwest, 17,000 dead) by denouncing the weakness of the regime, may pay a price for these angry Turkish lands.
During the celebration on March 24 of the inauguration of a hospital building in Antioch (south), which was severely damaged, cameras revealed that the building - which was supposed to open on May 10 - has no basis, like those housing that collapsed on February 6. .
Finally, the earth shook again (4.6 degrees) Friday in Gaziantep, a few hours before the arrival of the head of state.