Israeli estimates suggest a resumption of confrontation with Iran and imminent escalation in Gaza and Lebanon

Estimates are growing in Israeli political and security circles that the United States may soon move towards activating the military option against Iran, driven by what is described as President Donald Trump's dwindling patience. These circles believe that ending the current confrontation without achieving the declared strategic goals would constitute a severe loss for Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition, which is banking on dismantling Iran's nuclear project.\n\nThere is a conviction within the occupation government that Iran's exit from the current crisis without strict restrictions would grant it greater confidence and the ability to accelerate the nuclear arms race. This perception is pushing Tel Aviv to press for a shift from economic blockade to direct military confrontation, considering that this would also give it a free hand on the Lebanese front, which is experiencing a state of security confusion.\n\nIn the field context, Israel faces increasing challenges in Lebanon due to drones for which defense systems have failed to find radical solutions. Hezbollah appears to be adopting a different strategy in this confrontation, putting Israel's deterrence prestige to the test, especially after previous agreements failed to achieve the desired stability for the occupation.\n\nAs for the Gaza Strip front, Israeli intelligence reports indicate that the Hamas movement has succeeded in reorganizing its military ranks despite continuous operations for more than two years. This reality has pushed the Netanyahu government to seek an opportunity to restore its image before the Israeli public, especially with the crucial general elections approaching in six months.\n\nIn recent hours, there was a sudden cancellation of a meeting of the ministerial cabinet (the "Kabinett") that was dedicated to discussing the Gaza file, without clear reasons being given. This postponement comes at a time when indicators are increasing that Netanyahu desires to achieve quick field gains to strengthen his political position as a 'master of security' before heading to the polls.\n\nMedia sources quoted military analyst Amos Harel as saying that Trump and Netanyahu fully realize that the war has not yet achieved its objectives. Harel indicated that Trump's recent statements about his dissatisfaction with Iranian offers for a settlement reinforce the hypothesis of a return to intensive aerial operations, an option strongly favored by Netanyahu.\n\nIn the context of field preparations, the United States continues to send more military reinforcements to the region, coinciding with raising the alert level within Israel at both military and civilian levels. These moves reflect a shared understanding between Washington and Tel Aviv that the continuation of the status quo undermines the prestige of both parties and their ability to impose settlement terms.\n\nFor his part, the outgoing commander of the Israeli Air Force, Tomer Bar, warned in closed meetings that failure to resolve the enriched uranium issue would be considered a historical failure of the war. Bar called for a new round of aerial bombardment targeting the Iranian regime and Revolutionary Guard to force them to respond to American and international demands.\n\nOn the other hand, voices within Israel are emerging, warning against being drawn into a 'pathological revenge campaign' that could lead to catastrophic results. Analyst Ksenia Svetlova believes that focusing on the personal and political calculations of Trump and Netanyahu could deepen the crisis, especially with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising global oil prices.\n\nIn the Gaza Strip, the field escalation has not stopped, with sources reporting the martyrdom of a Palestinian due to an Israeli drone strike east of Deir al-Balah on Saturday. Occupation forces also carried out widespread demolition operations of residential buildings in the eastern areas of Khan Younis city, indicating the continuation of the scorched-earth policy in the border areas.\n\nThe Hamas movement adheres to its demands regarding the necessity of obliging Israel to implement the commitments of the first phase of the understandings, including opening crossings and introducing humanitarian aid. The movement's spokesman, Hazem Qassem, affirmed that they dealt positively with the proposals of mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, holding the occupation responsible for the continuous obstruction.\n\nObservers believe that Netanyahu is trying to escape his internal dilemmas by escalating external fronts, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran. Electoral calculations play a pivotal role in current security decisions, as the ruling coalition seeks to avoid any agreement that appears to be a surrender to resistance factions.\n\nReports indicate that the gap between Israeli expectations and the reality on the ground remains wide, as military force has failed to definitively resolve the battle. Analysts confirm that relying solely on force without a clear political path in the West Bank and Gaza will ultimately lead to "one big failure," as some military leaders have described it.\n\nIn conclusion, the regional scene remains suspended, awaiting the final decision from the White House, amidst anticipation of the possibility of launching preemptive air strikes. The Palestinian front remains the hottest spot, where military field calculations intertwine with the political ambitions of the occupation leaders at a pivotal stage in the region's history.\n\nLeaving the issue of enriched uranium and nuclear weapons in Iran unresolved means one big failure for the war.