Israeli Military Expert: Iran Possesses a 'Trump Card' Beyond Nuclear Weapons in the Energy Conflict

A prominent Israeli military expert issued strong warnings about the failure of joint policies between Tel Aviv and Washington to contain escalating Iranian influence. The analyst indicated that Tehran is implementing a strategy he described as 'ingenious,' which has put the American administration in a real predicament with no clear answers on how to confront it.

Alon Ben David, a senior military commentator, stated that economic data indicates an unexpected Iranian superiority amidst the confrontation. During the first month of the war, Tehran managed to significantly double its oil revenues compared to rates recorded in previous years.

Ben David emphasized the necessity of understanding the nature of the current battle, describing it as an economic campaign par excellence that traditional military means will not succeed in resolving. He hinted that the American leadership has begun to realize the difficulty, and perhaps impossibility, of achieving a decisive victory in this complex path.

Analyses indicate that Iran has prepared for many years to confront major powers by building qualitative capabilities aimed at paralyzing energy exports. This plan targets the Arabian Gulf region, which supplies the world with about 15 percent of its total daily oil consumption.

The Israeli expert explained that the Iranian threat is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz but extends to vast water areas. Tehran possesses missile and drone systems with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, making trade in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman at its mercy.

The analyst believes that disrupting international waterways does not require massive military effort or a large-scale direct confrontation. Merely targeting a single ship with a drone or a naval mine is enough to prompt global insurance companies to completely halt navigation in the region.

Ben David cited the example of the Houthi group in Yemen, who, with far fewer capabilities than Iran, managed to prove the effectiveness of this strategy over two years. This success gives Tehran confidence in its ability to quickly recover from any military strikes and focus on the deadly energy weapon.

The article considered control over energy exports to be the true 'trump card' in the hands of the Iranian regime, surpassing the strategic impact of possessing nuclear weapons. The direct impact on the global economy grants Tehran immunity and maneuverability not available through other means.

The expert drew a historical comparison with World War I, when the Turks closed the Dardanelles Strait, causing a paralysis of supplies to Russia. He pointed to Britain's failure at the time to break that blockade, despite a figure of Winston Churchill's stature leading naval operations at that time.

As the war entered its fourth week, sources quoted the International Energy Agency as saying that the world is currently facing the most severe oil crisis in modern times. The current damage has exceeded what happened during the famous oil embargo in 1973, putting the global economy at stake.

Reports indicate that major producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq have stopped exporting their production through the Gulf. There are currently about 800 ships trapped as a result of Iranian measures, amid an American military inability to break this naval blockade.

The insane rise in oil prices has pushed the United States to effectively ease sanctions imposed on Iran to allow the flow of supplies. Tehran is benefiting from this situation by directing 90 percent of its exports to China, while signing new bilateral agreements with other countries.

Data indicates that Iran has already begun to impose a new reality of collecting commissions and fees for 'protection' in waterways. Tehran is exploiting these massive financial flows to rapidly rebuild its facilities and industries that were damaged during recent military operations.

Ben David concluded that Tehran is now seeking to impose its full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and transform it into a commercial passage subject to its own levies. This shift represents a strategic failure for the security system that attempted to curb Iranian influence through military force alone, without considering economic power cards.

This is an economic campaign that will not be decided by military means, and Iran possesses a trump card that is stronger than nuclear weapons.