Israeli Security Study Warns of Erosion of 'Historical Support' in Washington and Spread of Negativity to Republicans

A recent strategic study issued by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies warned of an unprecedented deterioration in Israel's standing within the United States, emphasizing that the crisis is no longer limited to fleeting media criticism. The study clarified that this decline has begun to affect the historical foundations of the bilateral relationship, especially the principle of bipartisan support that characterized American policy for many decades.

The study, prepared by researchers Avishai Ben Sasson Gordes and Ted Sasson, was titled 'A Severe Crisis in Israel's Status in the United States.' The data indicated that the negative perception of Israel is no longer confined to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party but has begun to clearly seep into the youth bases of the Republican Party and traditional religious communities.

The figures in the report revealed that about 60% of Americans now hold a negative view of Israel, a significant increase compared to previous years. The researchers believe that this accelerated decline is directly due to the ongoing repercussions of the war on Gaza and confrontations with Iran, which has created an impression that Israel is dragging Washington into conflicts that do not serve American national interests.

In a striking international comparison, the study showed that Israel's image in American consciousness is now approaching the classification of countries considered traditional adversaries of Washington, such as Russia, China, and Iran. This shift indicates a fundamental change in Israel's position, from being an obvious ally beyond suspicion to a polarizing party and a source of intense political debate.

Younger age groups stand out as the most critical of Israeli policies, with the percentage of negative views among Americans under thirty reaching 75%. More alarmingly for decision-makers in Tel Aviv is the extension of this negativity to 64% of young Republicans, a group Israel had relied on as a permanent strategic support base.

The American Jewish community has not been immune to these shifts, as the study indicates that nearly 30% of American Jews now lean in their sympathy towards the Palestinian side. Polls also showed that the majority of Jewish voters prefer diplomatic paths and sanctions over military options in dealing with thorny regional issues.

Regarding military aid, the study revealed a deep division within the American Jewish community, with 44% supporting linking aid to Israel's adherence to international and American laws. In contrast, the percentage of supporters of unconditional aid dropped to only 31%, while a significant percentage opposed providing any form of financial or military support.

These popular pressures have tangibly moved into the halls of Congress, where the study observed 40 Democratic senators voting in favor of legislation restricting the export of certain military equipment. These proposed restrictions included preventing the sale of military bulldozers and heavy bombs, indicating a shift in opposition from mere political statements to serious legislative attempts to exert pressure.

Research sources indicated that criticism is no longer limited to figures known for their traditional anti-Israel stances but has extended to voices historically classified as close friends. These politicians now clearly distinguish between supporting Israel's security and supporting the policies of its current government, especially regarding controversial wars and settlement activity.

The study also noted a decline in the influence of the 'AIPAC' organization in some political circles, where affiliation with it is no longer a guaranteed electoral asset as in the past. On the contrary, the absolute support represented by the organization has become a political burden in some electoral districts that require explanations and justifications to young and independent voters.

In the Republican camp, the recent war sparked an unusual public debate among media figures and conservative influencers about the utility of absolute American involvement in supporting Israel. Voices emerged attacking Washington's military commitments, considering them to serve external agendas and not align with the 'America First' principle adopted by a wide segment of the new right.

The study attributes this structural shift to several intertwined factors, primarily the violence perpetrated by settlers in the West Bank and Israeli involvement in internal American polarization. These factors contributed to reshaping Israel's image as a 'costly' ally whose preservation requires a high political and moral price that many are no longer willing to pay.

The researchers concluded that Israel's real loss lies in the loss of 'the obviousness of support,' where every decision related to its support is subject to lengthy discussions and opposition within American institutions. This situation directly affects one of the most important foundations of Israeli strategic power, which is the absolute American guarantee that was previously considered unquestionable.

The study concludes by recommending a comprehensive re-evaluation of how the relationship with Washington is managed, warning that continuing the current approach could lead to long-term strategic isolation. It emphasizes that restoring trust with rising generations, religious and Jewish communities requires fundamental changes in field policies, not just in propaganda campaigns.

The most dangerous thing Israel is losing is not just the level of support, but the obviousness of support itself, and when its support becomes a subject of debate in the street, Congress, and the Jewish community.