The Resilience of the Iranian Arsenal: Did Israel Miscalculate the Extent of the Damage?

Recent reports have raised fundamental questions about the accuracy of the security assessments provided by Benjamin Netanyahu's government regarding the destruction of Iranian military capabilities. While the Israeli leadership insists it has succeeded in 'strangling' the Iranian regime, field realities indicate that Tehran has shown no real signs of depleting its strategic missile stockpile.

In a striking field development, air raid sirens blared in major Israeli cities coinciding with Passover celebrations, following the launch of the largest Iranian missile barrage in weeks. This continuous bombardment has led international observers to question the effectiveness of the intensive airstrikes that targeted Iranian production and storage sites over the past months.

Journalistic sources indicate that Israeli estimates announced after the June 2025 war, which was then described as a 'historic victory,' may have involved significant exaggerations. Despite the severe strikes, Iran resumed missile production at an accelerated pace, leaving Israelis in a constant state of alert, seeking shelters.

Despite the numerical decrease in missiles compared to the first day of the war, Iran has succeeded in maintaining a stable daily launch rate. This stability reflects a logistical capability to maneuver and overcome joint Israeli and American airstrikes that targeted Iranian military infrastructure.

Western analysts believe that one reason for this resilience is Iran's possession of launch platforms far exceeding what external observers had believed. These platforms are highly capable of camouflage, with many taking the form of civilian trucks that are difficult to detect and track in Iran's vast geography.

Tehran has also resorted to a strategy of distributing its arsenal in distant eastern provinces, complicating the tasks of warplanes that face difficulty flying for long periods in those areas. Some of these missiles have been equipped with lighter warheads to ensure they reach their targets from much greater distances.

While Israel claims to have destroyed about three-quarters of the launch platforms, recent American intelligence assessments indicate that half of these platforms are still intact and operational. It appears that fortified underground 'missile cities' have played a crucial role in protecting these capabilities from concentrated aerial bombardment.

Information indicates that Iranian teams showed high flexibility in evacuating cave and tunnel entrances immediately after being bombed, allowing platforms to be brought out and surprise launches to be carried out. Cloudy weather conditions sometimes contributed to providing natural cover for these movements away from satellite eyes.

Building the Iranian missile program, which began decades ago, was not merely an arms assembly operation, but a multi-billion dollar investment in a complex network of manufacturing and research. This network was not limited to inside Iran but extended to providing regional allies with the necessary technological expertise to produce their own arsenals.

In this context, Hezbollah in Lebanon still represents an existing threat despite the destruction of part of its major warehouses, with military sources estimating it possesses thousands of short-range missiles. These capabilities give it the ability to strike vital targets deep inside Israel, further complicating security calculations in the region.

Indicators of broader regional coordination have also emerged, with reports suggesting the use of medium-range missiles to target military bases outside the direct geographical scope, such as the British base in Cyprus. This expansion in the target bank reflects an Iranian desire to demonstrate its ability to influence the trajectories of regional conflict.

Despite the strikes that targeted steel factories and electronic research centers, the ability to continue launching remains present and effective. Experts believe that rebuilding the entire arsenal may take years, but the current stockpile is sufficient to continue a long-term war of attrition against defense systems.

On the other hand, Israeli army officers acknowledge that the terrifying scenarios envisioned at the beginning of the war about widespread destruction in major cities have not been fully realized. However, Iran's failure to 'overwhelm' air defenses does not necessarily mean the end of the threat, but rather its transformation into a more sustainable and bothersome pattern.

Ultimately, the Iranian regime remains capable of using the missile card as a pivotal tool in its defensive and offensive strategy alike. Despite material and human losses, Tehran has shown no signs of military collapse, placing the Israeli leadership before a field reality contrary to political promises.

Israelis might be excused for doubting Netanyahu's words, especially since he declared a historic victory in 2025 while they are still rushing to shelters today.