Earthquake in Energy Markets: War on Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz and Historic Leap in Oil Prices

The war waged by the American-Israeli coalition against Iran has entered its fourth week, leaving an unprecedented state of panic in global energy markets. The repercussions of this escalation extend beyond the direct military dimension to strike at the heart of the global economic system, given Iran's weight as a major oil producer and its geopolitical position controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the most important artery for international trade.

Field data indicate that Iran pumps about 3.2 million barrels per day and actually exports 1.5 million barrels despite the blockade, while the region as a whole remains responsible for one-third of global supplies. With ongoing military operations, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and 25% of liquefied natural gas passes, is under threat of effective closure, which could lead to an economic catastrophe.

Economic sources reported that oil prices have already seen sharp jumps of over 15% within a few days of the aggression's start. International expert houses are outlining grim scenarios indicating that any partial disruption of supplies could push prices to range between $120 and $150 per barrel, while the price could break the $200 barrier in the event of a full-scale confrontation that completely halts navigation.

On the political front, recent opinion polls showed a sharp decline in US President Donald Trump's popularity to 36%, his lowest level since returning to the White House. Analysts attribute this decline to widespread public rejection of the war, with 61% of Americans opposing military strikes, in addition to dissatisfaction with the insane rise in domestic fuel prices.

Domestically in the US, gasoline prices approached $4 per gallon, prompting the administration to take exceptional measures including suspending some taxes to ease the burden on families. Reports confirm that only 25% of voters support the current administration's handling of living costs, amid accusations against Trump and Netanyahu of being drawn into an ill-considered war.

For his part, former intelligence general Uri Halperin warned that the war began with insufficient planning and reliance on the adversary's capabilities. Halperin explained that Iran is pursuing an 'asymmetric warfare' strategy aimed at prolonging the conflict and exhausting the attackers, emphasizing Tehran's ability to paralyze navigation in the Gulf through its arsenal of advanced coastal missiles.

The crisis is not limited to oil but extends to the liquefied natural gas sector, as Qatar relies primarily on the Strait of Hormuz to export over 77 million tons annually. Any targeting of gas facilities or obstruction of passage would bring back memories of the European energy crisis, with expectations of record increases that could exceed 300% in global gas prices.

In a desperate attempt to contain the price explosion, Washington resorted to a dual policy of partially easing pressure on the flow of Iranian oil heading to Asian markets, especially China. This implicit step aims to maintain market balance and prevent the collapse of major economies, despite ongoing military operations and declared political pressures against Tehran.

Globally, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that the conflict threatens to plunge 700 million people into hunger. This warning is linked to the expected rise in transportation and fertilizer costs, as every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil directly leads to a 0.3 percentage point increase in global inflation rates.

Energy-importing countries, such as Egypt and Turkey, have begun to feel the danger through harsh austerity measures; in Cairo, policies emerged to rationalize electricity consumption and reduce public lighting. Every one-dollar increase in oil prices costs the Egyptian budget hundreds of millions of dollars, placing immense pressure on foreign exchange reserves and citizens' purchasing power.

As for Turkey, which imports more than 90% of its energy needs, it found itself facing an annual bill exceeding $90 billion. The Turkish government resorted to tax cuts on fuel to try to curb inflation related to transportation costs, but the continuation of the war threatens to collapse these fragile financial balances and widen the trade deficit.

In Europe, which relies 90% on imported oil, energy rationing policies have returned to the forefront with electricity bills rising by 50%. European leaders fear a repeat of previous crisis scenarios that led to economic recession and social unrest, especially with the absence of immediate alternatives to supplies coming from the Gulf region.

Military experts believe that controlling the situation requires complex ground operations to deprive Iran of its economic leverage, which seems far-fetched under current circumstances. The Iranian strategy of 'preventing the adversary from winning' remains the biggest obstacle to the ambitions of the American-Israeli coalition to change the regime or control energy resources.

In conclusion, the world faces a zero-sum equation where geopolitics intertwines with energy security in a highly complex scene. Military escalation in the Gulf not only threatens political systems but also extends its impact to every factory and home in the world, making the cessation of aggression a global economic necessity before the international economy slides into a comprehensive recession whose end cannot be predicted.

Iran is capable of closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz via advanced coastal missiles, even if its naval fleet is completely destroyed, putting global energy supplies at risk.