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PALESTINE

Wed 14 May 2025 8:26 am - Jerusalem Time

The rift between Trump and Netanyahu is widening... Will Washington succeed in imposing a permanent ceasefire?




Dr. Saad Nimr: Witkov's visit to the region is not limited to the Alexander case and his extradition, but rather aims to discuss a comprehensive plan for a ceasefire.
Antoine Shalhat: The ceasefire in Gaza is a preliminary step, but it does not guarantee the end of the war of extermination or the removal of the specter of displacement.
Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: The region is entering a phase of "silencing the guns" and launching comprehensive political initiatives that include Gaza and the West Bank.
Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya: The Hamas-US negotiations are a major blow to the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu and reveal an independent American vision for his removal.
Muhammad Joda: The potential truce does not necessarily mean the end of the policy of genocide or displacement, but may simply be an Israeli "rest."
Talal Okal: Netanyahu fears that the US envoy will reach an agreement that will be imposed as a fait accompli, which will put him between the jaws of a pincer.



The region is witnessing intense diplomatic developments that could pave the way for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, amid mounting US pressure on the Israeli government to end the war before US President Donald Trump's upcoming visit to several Arab countries.
In separate interviews with Al-Quds, writers, political analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that these pressures come within the framework of the US administration's efforts to achieve tangible progress in the crisis ahead of Trump's visit to the Arab region, especially in light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's disregard for international calls for a ceasefire and the entry of humanitarian aid. However, this comes amid growing Israeli concern about international isolation, especially with the United States entering into indirect negotiations with Hamas, which has shown flexibility by releasing prisoner Idan Alexander, a dual citizen, as a gesture of goodwill.
They point out that the region may witness a transitional phase that includes a temporary "silencing of the guns," but without sufficient guarantees to end the policy of genocide or avert the specter of forced displacement. This leaves Gaza's future hanging between political maneuvering and shifting security equations.


A visit of utmost importance for Trump

Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, asserts that US President Donald Trump is exerting significant pressure on the Israeli government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, to implement a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip before his upcoming visit to the Arab region, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, as well as meetings with several Arab leaders.
Nimr points out that Trump considers this visit of utmost importance, as his administration seeks to achieve tangible progress in ending the "war of extermination" in Gaza before his visit to the Arab region.
Nimr explains that the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu more than two months ago gave the latter a two-month deadline to fulfill his promises to end the conflict. However, Israel's brutal war against the Palestinian people in Gaza, which has included deliberate starvation and the withholding of aid, has not achieved any tangible results, which has fueled Trump's resentment toward Netanyahu.
Nimr points out that Netanyahu's continued war is aimed at protecting his extremist coalition government, ignoring calls for a comprehensive deal that would include a ceasefire and the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
In a related context, Nimr commends Hamas's initiative, which responded intelligently to pressure by offering to release soldier Idan Alexander, who holds dual American-Israeli citizenship, as a gesture of goodwill in exchange for Israel's commitment to allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Comprehensive ceasefire plan

Nimr believes this step reflects the resistance's shrewdness in dealing with the current political situation, noting that US envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to the region is not limited to the Alexander case and his handover, but rather aims to discuss a comprehensive ceasefire plan that includes the release of all Israeli prisoners held in Gaza, as well as Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, along with the entry of aid and laying the foundations for a permanent agreement.
Nimr asserts that the humanitarian situation in Gaza has reached catastrophic levels, with children suffering from starvation and anemia, while pregnant and breastfeeding women face tragic conditions.
Nimr points out that Trump, who ignored this brutality at the start of the war, now realizes, ahead of his visit to Arab countries, that the continuation of the war will negatively impact his political image, reflecting his own self-interest.
However, Nimr warns that Trump's statements about ending the war may be an attempt to "throw dust in the eyes," but he asserts that American pressure will force Netanyahu to accept a deal that may not fully align with his vision, but rather will align with the interests of the US administration and intermediary states, such as Egypt and Qatar.
Nimr points out that the Israeli protests by the prisoners' families will increase pressure on Netanyahu, especially with Trump's success in securing Alexander's release. This will open the door to a broader deal that guarantees a ceasefire and relief for Gaza, despite the extremist Israeli government's opposition.


Developments are subject to developments in the negotiations.

Antoine Shalhat, a writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, explains that recent developments point to the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip as a preliminary step. However, he warns that this step, despite its utmost importance, does not necessarily guarantee an end to the "war of extermination" or avert the specter of displacement once and for all.
Shalhat points out that these developments are subject to developments in the negotiations and the positions of international parties, especially the United States, in light of US President Donald Trump's upcoming visit to the Gulf states, which will include a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Shalhat asserts that a ceasefire represents a preliminary step that may herald an end to the war or reduce the risk of displacement. However, he emphasizes that achieving these goals requires intensive efforts from international mediators and a firm stance from the US administration.
Shalhat points out that Israel may resort to limited military operations under the pretext of "fighting terrorism," which would mean the continuation of the war in other forms, making halting the genocide and ending the threat of displacement contingent on future developments.
Discussing Trump's recent statements describing the war on Gaza as "brutal," Shalhat believes these remarks may indicate the US president's intention to push for an end to the war.
However, Shalhat points out that the position of the Israeli government, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, could pose a significant obstacle.

The war to keep Netanyahu's coalition in power

Shalhat explains that, according to Israeli analysis, Netanyahu views the continuation of the war as a guarantee of his coalition's survival and continued rule. Netanyahu considers this a "top priority" that trumps any other priorities, including reaching a ceasefire agreement or planning for the "day after" the war.
Shalhat asserts that the US administration, headed by Donald Trump, has the power to impose a ceasefire on Israel, even if it leads to the disintegration of the Israeli government coalition.
Shalhat points to estimates indicating that Netanyahu may be forced to succumb to American pressure, given Israel's heavy reliance on American support.
However, Shalhat warns that it is difficult to predict the Israeli government's reaction, calling for close monitoring of developments, as ongoing negotiations and the outcome of Trump's Gulf visit will be crucial in determining the course of the crisis.
Shalhat emphasized the urgent importance of a ceasefire, considering it the first step that could pave the way for achieving broader goals: ending the war of extermination and preventing the mass displacement of Palestinians. He called for intensified international efforts to ensure that this step marks the beginning of a lasting path toward peace and stability in the region.


Indications of comprehensive arrangements including the war on Gaza

Writer and political analyst Hani Abu Al-Sabaa believes there are strong indications that the region is on the cusp of comprehensive arrangements that encompass the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and security and political developments in Syria and Lebanon, under direct US auspices.
Abu Al-Sabaa explains that these arrangements aim to de-escalate tensions and revive political processes, as part of the United States' efforts to maintain its leading role in resolving international conflicts, while focusing on confronting its economic adversaries, most notably China.
Abu Al-Sabaa points to a clear Arab willingness to cooperate with American visions. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff has conducted extensive shuttle visits to the region, including meetings with key mediators in Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. These efforts aim to prepare the ground for US President Donald Trump's anticipated visit in the coming days, which requires tangible progress in halting the war in Gaza and providing Arab states with guarantees that the United States will continue to sponsor the peace process.
Abu al-Saba' points out that the United States has, for the first time, entered into direct negotiations with Hamas, despite opposition from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which insists on continuing military operations. This is a historic precedent.
Abu al-Saba' draws attention to statements by Hamas leaders, particularly Khalil al-Hayya, the movement's Gaza official, who announced the movement's agreement to release Israeli dual national prisoner Aidan Alexander as a goodwill gesture toward Trump's efforts.

Hamas's positive response to diplomatic initiatives

Abu Al-Sabaa asserts that this step reflects Hamas's willingness to engage positively with diplomatic initiatives under regional and international pressure.
Abu al-Saba'a indicated that the Israeli security and political cabinet will meet to discuss the understandings between the Americans and Hamas, and that they are expected to be approved, despite statements by the Hebrew media asserting that these understandings will not prevent Israel from continuing the war.
Abu Al-Saba' points to Netanyahu's office's claim that the understandings were the result of military pressure on Gaza, which he considers an internal effort to quell criticism of the government.
Abu Al-Sabaa believes the region is entering a phase of "silencing the guns" and launching comprehensive political initiatives that include Gaza and the West Bank, coordinated by the United States, Israel, Europe, and the Arab world.
Abu Al-Sabaa asserts that America's entry into direct negotiations indicates that a comprehensive agreement to stop the war is imminent.
Abu Al-Sabaa points out that the people of Gaza are anticipating a moment of calm and hope for a dignified life, with expectations that Trump's meetings with Arab leaders will yield tangible steps toward reconstruction and reviving political solutions.


Promoting American interests in the Middle East

Dr. Raed Abu Badawi, professor of international law and international relations at the Arab American University, asserts that direct negotiations between Hamas and the United States represent a major political blow to the relationship between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They also reveal an independent American vision that isolates Netanyahu.
Abu Badawiya emphasizes that this move cannot be separated from a broader regional context that reveals an independent American vision aimed at advancing American interests in the Middle East, far removed from traditional coordination with Israel.
Abu Badawiya explains that the current negotiations between Hamas and the United States are not the first, as similar contacts have previously stalled. However, they represent a significant development that reflects strategic shifts.
Abu Badawiya points out that these negotiations coincide with significant progress in US talks with Iran, which are taking place without sufficient coordination with Israel, a surprise to Netanyahu.
Abu Badawiya links these developments to the close relationship Trump announced with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. During a joint press conference, Trump asked Netanyahu to communicate with Erdoğan, describing him as a "friend." Abu Badawiya believes this move represents a blow to Israel's right-wing vision, particularly regarding the Syrian issue.

Containing Iran and strengthening trade relations with the Gulf states

Abu Badawiya asserts that other American steps, such as the relative calm with the Houthis in Yemen, constitute a violation of the traditional strategic relationship between the United States and Israel, reinforcing the impression of Netanyahu's regional isolation.
According to Abu Badawiya, the US administration seeks to impose a comprehensive vision for the Middle East based on containing Iran, concluding calming agreements regarding its nuclear program, and strengthening trade relations with the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, which is raising the civil nuclear issue. This vision also includes strengthening relations with Türkiye, while placing the Palestinian issue at the heart of any regional stability.
Abu Badawiya asserts that Trump and successive US administrations understand that any stability in the region requires solutions to the Palestinian issue, even if these are not entirely satisfactory at the present time.
Abu Badawiya expects these indicators to lead to an end to the aggression on the Gaza Strip in the near future, with the possibility of reaching a comprehensive deal that includes a prisoner exchange.
In the medium and long term, Abu Badawiya expects partial American acceptance of Hamas's participation in the political system in Gaza, provided it is not headed by Hamas. He also points to American flexibility regarding Hamas's weapons, with a focus on "controlling" them rather than completely disarming them.
Abu Badawiya points out that there are American trends that could allow for a partial annexation of the West Bank, which would pose a major challenge to the Palestinians.
Abu Badawiya explains that these trends may be part of the price Israel will pay to achieve the American vision.

Expect changes in the Israeli government system

In contrast, Abu Badawiya expects US policy to have internal repercussions for Israel, as Netanyahu's government appears isolated from the US vision, potentially leading to political and popular pressures that threaten its continuity.
Abu Badawiya expects changes to occur in the Israeli ruling system as a result of these changes.
Abu Badawiya points out that Hamas's agreement to release a dual-nationality prisoner without a direct political price reflects strategic flexibility, with expectations that the movement will reap indirect political gains.
Abu Badawiya considers this step an indication of Hamas's willingness to engage positively with the American vision, particularly regarding arrangements for the post-aggression on Gaza. However, he urged caution, warning that the political price for the Palestinian cause could be high, especially in light of American trends regarding the West Bank.
Meanwhile, Abu Badawiya asserts that the American vision conflicts with the aspirations of the Israeli right and requires Israel to pay political costs, most notably ending the aggression against Gaza.
Abu Badawiya anticipates additional political surprises, with a move toward resolving regional crises through political deals and the gradual isolation of the Netanyahu government, which will enhance the chances of change in Israeli and regional politics.


US pressure and the erosion of the Israeli home front

Writer and political analyst Mohammed Joda asserts that the growing talk of an impending truce in the Gaza Strip, both in statements by the Hebrew media and by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself, reflects mounting American and international pressure, coupled with Israel's internal paralysis and the erosion of its domestic front due to the prolonged war.
Joudeh believes that Netanyahu's statement that "fateful days" await Israel indicates a fear of a strategic crossroads: either accept a ceasefire agreement that could weaken his position with his far-right partners, or risk a final military escalation that carries significant political and military risks.
Joudeh explains that a potential truce does not necessarily mean the end of Israel's policy of genocide or displacement, but rather may simply be a "rest" allowing the Israeli government to reposition itself, especially since it has failed to achieve its stated objectives, most notably "eliminating Hamas."
Joudeh points out that Israel may exploit any truce to impose a fait accompli in Gaza, or to prepare for the post-war phase without committing to a permanent cessation of hostilities, raising questions about its long-term intentions.
Joudeh believes that US President Donald Trump's statements regarding the "brutality of the war" in Gaza are a remarkable precedent in Republican discourse, carrying a dual message. On the one hand, they target the American voter, who has begun to show aversion to unconditional support for Israel. On the other hand, they reflect Trump's ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize, while also signaling to Israel that it no longer enjoys a "blank check" even from its close allies.


A symbolic breakthrough in the US barrier against Hamas

Joudeh believes that Hamas' release of dual national prisoner Idan Alexander is a highly sensitive development, as it demonstrates an indirect understanding between the movement and the US administration, albeit through intermediaries. This could constitute a symbolic breakthrough in the US barrier against Hamas.
Joudeh warns that this step alone will not be enough to conclude a comprehensive agreement to end the war unless it is coupled with an agreement structure that includes a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal, international guarantees against population displacement, the commencement of reconstruction, and the lifting of the blockade.
Joudeh points out that Netanyahu's extremist government poses a major obstacle, as it views the continuation of the war as a means to its political survival and fears that any agreement would be interpreted as a "victory for Hamas."
Joudeh believes that the region is not on the cusp of an end to the war, but rather facing a "rearrangement of its landscape," whereby the truce, if implemented, will be partial and conditional.
Joudeh points out that Trump's real bet is focused on exploiting Gaza as an electoral card and his ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize, rather than being driven by humanitarian or moral motives.
Joudeh asserts that Netanyahu stands at a fateful crossroads that could determine not only the future of Gaza but also the shape of the Israeli government itself, amidst mounting internal tensions and external pressures.

Trump seeks a diplomatic breakthrough

Writer and political analyst Talal Okal believes that US President Donald Trump's statements about halting the "brutal war" in Gaza, his envoy Steve Witkoff's call for the release of all prisoners, and direct contacts with Hamas indicate a clear rift between the US administration and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who refuses to halt the war.
Okal points out that Netanyahu fears that the US envoy will reach an agreement that will be imposed as a fait accompli, placing him between two "jaws of a stick": either submit to Trump and disintegrate his extremist government coalition, or reject US pressure and deepen the rift with Trump.
Awkal explains that Trump is seeking a diplomatic breakthrough before his upcoming visit to the Gulf, where he will feel embarrassed if he fails to make progress.

Releasing Idan Alexander is a "smart gesture"

Okal points out that Trump, who is focused on US interests and confronting China and its allies, will not tolerate Netanyahu's manipulation and may take shocking positions or actions to pressure the Israeli government.
Okal believes this dynamic will escalate internal pressure on Netanyahu, especially with rising tensions within his coalition.
Okal believes that Hamas' release of dual national prisoner Idan Alexander was a "smart gesture" to ease American pressure, which will contribute to the flow of relief aid to Gaza with American support, perhaps independent of the mechanisms Netanyahu is trying to impose.
Awkal believes the coming days will be fraught with anticipation, especially with Trump's visit, describing him as an "unpredictable president" who puts his country's interests above all else.




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The rift between Trump and Netanyahu is widening... Will Washington succeed in imposing a permanent ceasefire?

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