Dr. Ahmed Younis: Without a genuine international understanding and mutual political and security guarantees, Macron's declaration will be nothing more than a temporary diplomatic pressure card in a game of nations.

Dr. Amjad Abu Al-Ezz: France seeks to play a role in the Middle East and is attempting to return to the region through the Palestinian gateway after the failure of the Lebanese gateway.

Dr. Jamal Shalabi: The reward that Israel might receive in exchange for recognizing the Palestinian state and in exchange for the Saudi condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state would be substantial.

Dr. Amjad Shehab: A good step from a diplomatic and legal perspective, but it remains far from achieving Palestinian national aspirations.

Dr. Tariq Ziad Wahbi: Macron is trying to lead a campaign different from that of Trump, who has gone too far in protecting Israel and its rulers, even from the International Criminal Court.

Although the French position is not new, President Emmanuel Macron recently announced his country's intention to recognize a Palestinian state in June. However, Macron's advisor came out and announced that recognition of a Palestinian state is conditional upon a cessation of hostilities, the release of hostages, and an end to Hamas's rule in the Gaza Strip.

Macron's announcement came at the height of the occupying power's war of extermination against the Palestinian people, particularly in the Gaza Strip. It also denounced international law and political agreements signed with the Palestinian side, declared its rejection of the establishment of a Palestinian state, and imposed facts on the ground that make the establishment of a Palestinian state an elusive goal.

Writers, analysts, and academics who spoke to Al-Quds.com said that France is seeking to play a role in the Middle East and is attempting to re-enter the region through the Palestinian cause after the failure of the Lebanese one. They emphasized that without genuine international understanding and mutual political and security guarantees, Macron's announcement will be little more than a temporary diplomatic bargaining chip in a game of nations.

Macron's announcement of his intention to recognize the State of Palestine is not final.

Lebanese academic and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Younes says, "Anyone who carefully examines the wording of the announcement issued by French President Emmanuel Macron regarding his country's intention to recognize the Palestinian state next June, despite the symbolic and political dimensions of this announcement, will discover that it is not a final decision, but rather is linked to complex political conditions, foremost among which is the recognition of Israel by Arab countries, and a clear reference to Saudi Arabia, which rejects normalization before the establishment of an independent Palestinian state."

Younis asserts that the French statement came at a sensitive time, with escalating regional tensions, the ongoing war in Gaza, and declining confidence in the international track toward a two-state solution. Formally, Macron appears to be seeking to revive this political solution, but in substance, the conditions for recognition he proposed raise questions about its seriousness, timing, and motives.

Younes points out that Macron's linking France's recognition of a Palestinian state to Arab states' recognition of Israel is a condition that is inconsistent with the region's political reality, particularly since Saudi Arabia—the state Macron seems to be explicitly alluding to—requires the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital before any normalization with Israel. Could Macron be setting a condition he knows will not be met, in order to give Paris a diplomatic way out of making a real decision?

An upcoming international conference in New York

Younis believes that Macron's statement also came ahead of an upcoming international conference in New York, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, with the aim of "reviving" the two-state solution. He said, "Macron clearly indicated his desire for French recognition to be part of a 'collective movement,' that is, a comprehensive political deal that includes Arab normalization with Israel, international recognition of Palestine, and regional security guarantees, particularly against Iran, which he described as "rejecting Israel's existence."

He added: "If we go back a little, we see that France has never been far from supporting the two-state solution. From President François Mitterrand's speech to the Knesset in 1982, to its support for UN resolutions on Palestine, Paris has always adopted the classic European position based on the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. In fact, in 2010, France raised the level of Palestinian representation in its country, naming the head of its mission "ambassador."

Younes continued, "But what's new in Macron's announcement isn't the direction, but rather the linking of Palestinian recognition to gains for Israel. This is a shift in French political language, reflecting either a retreat from the traditional European independence, or an attempt to play the role of a balanced mediator between East and West, Arab and Israeli, American and Iranian."

French recognition won't change much.

He pointed out that this statement and French recognition will not change much. According to the 1933 Montevideo Convention, a state does not require external recognition to exist under international law. However, politically, the declaration by France, a permanent member of the Security Council and one of the first countries to recognize Israel in 1949, carries significant symbolic significance that could pave the way for another wave of European recognitions.

He said: Although the United States continues to oppose international recognition of Palestine, as was clearly demonstrated by its veto of the Algerian draft resolution at the Security Council in 2024, European moves of this kind could increase political pressure on Washington and restore momentum to the Palestinian cause on the international stage.

An attempt at diplomatic positioning in a turbulent international moment

In this regard, he points out that President Macron's statements will not constitute a fundamental shift in French policy, but rather reflect an attempt to position himself diplomatically at a turbulent regional and international moment. He said: "It is a declaration that sends multilateral messages: to the Palestinians and Arabs, that Paris continues to support their state; to Israel, that recognition will not come for free; to the United States, that France wants a role in shaping the future of the Middle East; and to Iran, that Paris will stand clearly against its rejection of Israel's existence."

Dr. Younis concluded his statement to Al-Quds.com by asserting that conditional recognition, as proposed, remains nothing more than a declaration of intent. He said, "Without genuine international understanding and mutual political and security guarantees, this declaration will be little more than a temporary diplomatic bargaining chip in a game of nations open to all possibilities."

I hear a lot of noise but I don't see any flour

For his part, Dr. Amjad Abu Al-Ezz, a European affairs specialist at the Arab American University, said: “As usual, the famous saying applies to France: ‘I hear a lot of noise, but I don’t see anything.’ Today, we are witnessing a decline in French enthusiasm for recognizing a Palestinian state, as a result of pressure exerted by Tel Aviv after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called French President Emmanuel Macron. As a result of this call, the French president’s advisor stated that recognition of a Palestinian state is conditional on a cessation of hostage-taking, the release of hostages, and the end of Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip.”

Abu al-Ezz added: "Since 1980, France has declared its support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, but it has not implemented what it calls for, neither at the individual French level nor at the European level. In 1980, Hamas did not exist, and there were neither weapons nor prisoners. Yet, France did not recognize the Palestinian state."

Abu al-Ezz asserts that this position is not new, but rather a continuation of previous positions. Since the Venice Declaration in 1980 and the subsequent positions of the European Union—currently led by Germany—European countries, led by Germany and France, have continued to emphasize in their statements the necessity of establishing a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel. However, these statements have never gone beyond paper, and are repeated in all statements by the European Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, without any real impact on the ground.

France is not serious about recognizing a Palestinian state.

As for France, Abu al-Ezz says, it seeks to play a role in the Middle East and is attempting to return to the region through several gateways, one of which was previously Lebanon, by attempting to sponsor a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, but it was later marginalized.

He adds: Now, France is trying to return through the Palestinian gateway by proposing the idea of recognizing the state. This initiative, by the way, was proposed by the French president's advisor during his visit to Ramallah about three weeks ago, and I met him personally. The goal was to present a "comprehensive vision" similar to the American proposal, and there is a kind of French-American competition over this issue. This was evident in the call between President Macron and both Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah during their stay in Cairo.

Abu Al-Ezz wondered, "Will this initiative ever see the light of day?" expressing his belief that the challenges are immense.

He says: "If France were truly serious about recognizing a Palestinian state, it would not have tied recognition to impossible conditions that cannot be met in the near future, such as an end to the war or an end to Hamas rule. In fact, these conditions represent a kind of escapism and a response to Israeli political pressure."

Why don't they admit it now?!

He continued: "The French today say they will 'recognize,' but the question is: Why don't they recognize now, as Spain, Norway, Belgium, Slovenia, and Ireland have done? Why link recognition to complex conditions?"

He believes that France is selling a political illusion, expressing hope that Macron will be able to achieve what he proposes and convince his European Union partners to adopt this position.

Concluding his statement to Al-Quds, Abu al-Ezz asserted that dealing with Saudi Arabia as an alternative to persuading the Europeans is evidence of France's weak ability to influence the EU, adding, "The French president should have started by halting arms exports to Israel, rather than simply issuing statements. He should also have persuaded his partners in the European Union to adopt the recognition of a Palestinian state."

France is trying to find a foothold in the region.

In turn, Dr. Jamal Shalabi, a professor of political science at Hashemite University in Amman, said that France is attempting to return to the Middle East, not only through Lebanon—as it did when it brokered the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire agreement—but also through the central issue of the Middle East, the Palestinian cause.

He added, "In light of American hegemony and control over the keys to this issue, France is trying to find a foothold in cooperation with one of the current pillars of the Palestinian file, namely the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He believes that normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be the greatest and most important achievement, if it is achieved."

Al-Shalabi continued: "It is true that there is a wave of Abrahamic normalization, and it is important for Israel, but it does not compare in importance to Saudi Arabia, which owns the Two Holy Mosques and has an effective regional role in the Middle East and the Gulf, in addition to its important economic role in the fields of energy, oil, and gas, in addition to its geopolitical position."

He believes that President Macron's main goal today is to support the Palestinian cause, not only through the European portal, but also through the Arab portal led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

He said, "Hence, President Macron's idea of calling for an international conference, announced during his meeting in Saudi Arabia last December, affirmed the idea of recognizing the Palestinian state, but through an international conference to be held in New York on June 15 of this year."

A diplomatic and academic committee affiliated with the French Foreign Ministry

He pointed out that this conference represents a French-Saudi attempt, firstly, to demonstrate that two major powers, the Arab world and Europe, are working in the same direction, and secondly, to demonstrate the genuine desire of these two countries to reach a ceasefire and recognize the Palestinian state.

He said that France has formed a "diplomatic and academic committee" directly linked to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tasked with detailed preparations for the conference, which is expected to witness broad Arab, European, and international participation. This committee consists of eight prominent members, representing a combination of deep diplomatic experience and analytical academic vision. They include three former French ambassadors who held sensitive positions in countries involved in the conflict: Israel, Syria, and Libya; and five academics specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and international relations. In parallel, the committee has worked to build a strong strategic partnership with the Gulf Research Center in Saudi Arabia, represented by Dr. Abdulaziz bin Saqr, one of the most prominent research and intellectual figures in the region, and who heads one of the most important Saudi research centers that deeply reflects the Saudi vision and foreign policy orientations.

Al-Shalabi believes that France's recognition of the Palestinian state, if achieved, will lead to comprehensive European recognition. He added, "It is true that countries such as Spain, Slovenia, and Ireland have recognized the Palestinian state, but France's recognition will carry greater weight, just as Saudi Arabia's importance in the normalization process."

France seeks to balance its positions

He believes this development will represent a major political achievement for the Palestinian cause after the recent events in Gaza.

On the other hand, Dr. Shalabi believes that France seeks to achieve a balance in its positions, both domestically and internationally, particularly toward Israel. France is home to approximately 500,000 Jews, who constitute an influential segment with economic, cultural, and media power, playing a prominent role.

He continued: "Therefore, this French move also comes as a message to this segment, stating that in exchange for recognizing the Palestinian state, Israel will receive security, normalization, and important guarantees, and therefore it must move forward in this direction."

He also explained that this step sends a message to Israel that recognition of a Palestinian state will be met with normalization, and that normalization is valuable because it doesn't only concern Saudi Arabia, but also includes the entire Arab and Islamic world, from Indonesia and Malaysia to Kuwait, Oman, Mauritania, Algeria, Tunisia, and others.

Al-Shalabi emphasized that the reward Israel might receive in exchange for recognizing the Palestinian state, and in exchange for the Saudi condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state, would be substantial. Whether this state is based on UN resolutions (such as Resolutions 242 or 338) or on the aspirations of the Palestinian people, what matters is the existence of a state that can unite the Palestinian people and prove to the world that it actually exists.

Conditional French recognition of the Palestinian state

French affairs analyst Dr. Amjad Shehab said that French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal to recognize a Palestinian state—meaning that France might recognize the State of Palestine next June—remains conditional. However, it simultaneously expresses the French president's opposition to the policy of eliminating Palestinians in Gaza, and his opposition to Israeli policy in general. This announcement represents a retreat from France's pro-Israel stance since Operation Protective Edge on October 7.

He pointed out that the French position remains cautious, oscillating between a desire to adhere to the humanitarian dimension and a reluctance to take decisive positions on the political level.

He added, "These statements represent a very important step regarding the Palestinian issue, issued by the first major Western country, as France is the most important political country on the European level."

He continued: Although talk of recognizing a Palestinian state still does not actually exist on the ground, as the Israeli occupation controls all the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967, on which the Palestinian state is supposed to be established, the state in question here remains "hypothetical," and France would like to recognize it conditionally, in a clear expression of its rejection of the liquidation of the Palestinian cause, the elimination of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and its rejection of the reshaping of the Middle East through aggression, massacres, and destruction. On the contrary, through this position, France affirms its support for a peaceful solution.

Conference on Palestine at the United Nations in New York

Shehab indicated that France, in partnership with Saudi Arabia, intends to organize a conference on Palestine at the United Nations headquarters in New York, in an attempt to reach a formula for "mutual recognition": that is, France and other European countries would recognize the (hypothetical) State of Palestine, in exchange for Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries—which have not yet recognized Israel—recognizing the occupying state.

However, he noted that French diplomatic efforts remain difficult to implement. He said that a year ago, several European countries, such as Spain, Ireland, and Norway, jointly recognized the State of Palestine, while the official French position under Macron remained: "We will recognize at the appropriate time," despite numerous calls within France for simultaneous recognition with these European countries.

Macron and Gaullist diplomacy

Shehab wondered: What prompted the French president to take this step, at a time when the United States—during the Trump presidency—opposes the two-state solution? He said: There is an explanation for this, namely that continued silence would have made the official French position awkward, even complicit, and would have contradicted the historical French position known as "Gaullist diplomacy," which considers Western France the best ally of Arab states. This step appears to represent an attempt to revive the traditional French-Arab policy that disappeared since the end of Jacques Chirac's presidency in 2007.

He noted that President Macron is attempting to play a balanced role, in keeping with his political vision: on the one hand, against Hamas, and on the other, with Israel. He has called on Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for French and perhaps other European countries recognizing a hypothetical Palestinian state, instead of taking immediate French and European measures or imposing sanctions on Israel to halt the massacres in Gaza and halt settlement activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

Shehab concluded his statement by saying, "From this perspective, this step is good from a diplomatic and legal perspective, but it remains far from achieving Palestinian national aspirations."

An announcement that should have come during the Chirac era.

For his part, Lebanese international relations researcher Dr. Tariq Ziad Wahbi said that President Macron's announcement recognizing the Palestinian state should have come a long time ago, especially given France's positive engagement with the Palestinian issue since the era of President Chirac, who, along with the late President Arafat, began paving the way for a number of European countries to recognize the Palestinian state.

He believes that what Macron wanted was a return to the Arab League resolutions of the 2002 Beirut Conference, which included the slogan "peace for land," in other words, recognition of a Palestinian state in exchange for normalization with Israel.

Wahbi emphasized that the past few days, with the excessive American presence in this file and its unfairness to the Palestinians, led to various Arab-Israeli paths, leading to the so-called Abraham Accords, which stipulated normalization with a number of influential Arab countries in the Palestinian file, leaving only the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which linked the settlement of its relations with Israel to the recognition of the Palestinian state.

The two-state solution has become an unattainable dream.

He pointed out that everyone is facing a dilemma, namely that the two-state solution, with Israeli practices, has become an unattainable dream as long as the United States and even the European Union have not taken decisions against settlements in the West Bank. The Gaza war has proven that Israel can at any time change the geographical map, seize Palestinian lands and turn them into a security belt protecting Israel.

Wahbi explained that, after his meeting with President Sisi and King Abdullah, Macron sought to push his country and the European Union to open the door to recognition as a diplomatic tool, despite the fact that the second part of the recognition hinges on Arab recognition of Israel. What's striking about this is the absence of any Palestinian official at the Cairo meeting, most of whose agenda items pertained to Palestine and the Palestinian people.

He considered this to be another indication that France's choices also follow the approach of some hardline Zionists who do not recognize the existence of Palestine.

He pointed out that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had carefully evaluated the outcomes of the Abraham Accords, which provided the countries involved with the accord with a form of trade openness with the State of Israel, without, for example, holding it accountable for its actions against civilians in Gaza and the West Bank after October 7.

Wahbi concluded by saying: "We must acknowledge that President Macron is trying to lead a campaign that is different from what President Trump is doing, who has gone too far in protecting Israel and its rulers, even from the International Criminal Court after the United States pressured its judges. France and the European Union are pursuing a flexible diplomatic path that does not disturb Israel and reassures the Arabs that it is capable of reconciling all parties."