Sawsan Sarour: The tense relations between the Shin Bet and Netanyahu reached an advanced stage when Ronen Bar was withdrawn from the negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

Imad Abu Awad: What we are witnessing today is a precedent and an indicator of Israel's internal weakness and its lack of clarity and confusion of identity.

Dr. Adnan Al-Afandy: The threat by the former head of the Shin Bet to a former top executive authority is unprecedented in the history of the occupying state.

Dr. Hassan Marhej: The former head of the Shin Bet's threats to Netanyahu reflect deep internal tensions within Israeli politics.

Ismat Mansour: An indicator of the extent of the anxiety and fear gripping the security establishment due to Netanyahu's behavior and the way he runs the country.

The absolute power that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long sought to monopolize, moving away from the traditions of Western rule, which he and others have long considered Israel to be part of, and drawing closer to the Third World regimes over which he has long exercised his arrogance and superiority in every sphere.

Anyone who follows Netanyahu's consolidation of institutions under his control and those of his allies, such as Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and Katz, as well as the dismissals of his Defense Minister Galant, his Chief of Staff Halevi, the IDF Spokesperson, and others, clearly reveals the true nature of the coup Netanyahu is waging within Israeli institutions to seize control of the levers of power and sideline his opponents, preventing any attempt to hold him accountable for the failures of October 7th, thus remaining in power.

Former Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman is fed up with Netanyahu's policies. In an interview with Israel's Channel 12, he threatened that "if Netanyahu breaks the law, he will publish sensitive information he learned during his tenure as head of the Shin Bet."

In response to these threats, Netanyahu filed a formal complaint with the police on Friday against Argaman, accusing him of "attempting to blackmail him using methods typical of the world of organized crime, as if he were a mafia leader rather than a former Israeli security official."

Writers and analysts who spoke to Al-Quds considered the former Shin Bet chief's threat to the highest executive authority unprecedented in the history of the occupying state, and an indicator of the extent of the anxiety and fear gripping the security establishment due to Netanyahu's behavior and the way he governs the country.

A crisis of confidence between the Shin Bet and the government

Journalist Sawsan Sarour, an observer and critic of the Israeli political scene, said, "The accusations and threats made by former Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman in a televised interview on Israel's Channel 12 last Thursday against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflect the depth of the crisis of trust between the two institutions."

She added: "Argaman threatened Netanyahu with revealing very important details gathered through the intimate relationship between them over many years of their joint work in their respective positions, if Netanyahu attempted to circumvent or undermine democracy in Israel. Argaman threatened, saying, 'I will reveal everything.'"

Sarour confirmed that this interview came a few days after the current head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, announced some of the results of the Shin Bet investigation into the failure of October 7, 2023, when Palestinian resistance elements took control of the Gaza Strip settlements and detained a large number of Israelis. Bar did not evade personal responsibility, but he claimed that the political system was also complicit in this failure, as it adopted a policy of buying calm in Gaza with Qatari money. Netanyahu was receiving approximately $30 million monthly, believing that Gaza did not pose an urgent security threat, and was classified as the fourth most dangerous country, after Iran, Hezbollah, and the West Bank.

Another threat to Israeli "democracy"

Sarour believes that the tense relationship between the Shin Bet and Netanyahu reached an advanced stage when Netanyahu withdrew Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar from the indirect deal negotiations between Israel and Hamas about a month ago.

She noted that attacks by Netanyahu's entourage on Bar have escalated in recent weeks following his investigation into the classified documents affair, in which Prime Minister's Office spokesman Eli Feldstein is suspected of being involved. Netanyahu's associates, such as his son Yair Netanyahu and media personality Jacob Bardugo, have strongly attacked Bar and the Shin Bet security service, accusing them of attempting a coup. This is not to mention the recent launch of an investigation into the so-called "Qatargate" affair, in which senior employees and advisors in Netanyahu's office are accused of working with the State of Qatar in exchange for financial compensation.

Sarour noted that in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu's overt desire to control more and more centers of power and place his followers within them, and as a clear "lesson" from his turbulent working relationship with Bar, who does not comply with his every whim, the likelihood is growing that Netanyahu will appoint someone close to him to the position, rather than appointing a professional, as has always been the case. This poses a clear and tangible danger to democracy. It may even exceed any other threat currently facing Israeli democracy—on the legislative, executive, legal, and other fronts—although the threats are, of course, intertwined and not mutually exclusive.

A unique device in the field of national security

Sarour stated that the Israeli Internal Security Service (Shin Bet) is considered a unique agency in the field of national security, because its focus is on internal security, with an emphasis on counter-espionage activities. It focuses on the country's citizens and operates in complete secrecy. She noted that its activities are considered extremely sensitive because they involve violating citizens' privacy, and for this purpose, the agency is provided with unique tools.

However, she emphasized that since the establishment of the state, the Shin Bet has operated for decades without a regular legal framework. It was not until June 2002 that the Shin Bet Law was passed, after years of debate, that it defined clear powers and responsibilities for the organization: counterespionage, counterterrorism, and counter-sabotage.

Sarour added: “The Shin Bet was given four additional areas of responsibility under the law: ‘The Shin Bet is responsible for maintaining the security of the state, the democratic system and its institutions; securing individuals, information, and locations designated by the government; determining the security classification of secret positions; and determining security procedures for bodies designated by the government.” To these four, a clause was added stating that the Shin Bet will fulfill a fifth role, which does not exist in any similar law regulating the activities of counterespionage organizations in Western countries: responsibility for ‘activity in another area designated by the government and aimed at preserving and promoting the state’s fundamental national security interests.’”

She continued, "This section allows the Shin Bet to operate even in areas not directly related to state security, as happened, for example, during the coronavirus pandemic, when the Shin Bet was activated to monitor patients by a decision of the prime minister. A side effect of the Shin Bet law was that the organization gained additional powers it did not have before the legislation (such as responsibility for regime arrangements), and today it has greater powers than those granted to parallel organizations in Western democracies."

The Prime Minister is the supervisor of the General Security Service.

“According to the law, the prime minister is the government supervisor of the General Security Service (Shin Bet),” Surur said. “This subordination resulted from arrangements established in the early days of the state, when David Ben-Gurion was both prime minister and defense minister. Later, the two positions were separated, and based on the recommendation of the Yadin-Sharf Commission, established by Ben-Gurion in 1963 to study the distribution of responsibilities within the intelligence services, it was decided to transfer responsibility for the Israeli army to the defense minister, while the prime minister would remain responsible for the General Security Service (Shin Bet) and the Mossad.”

Surur said the committee's starting point was for the prime minister to have a full picture of the secret services' activities.

However, the committee ruled that Israel is the only country among Western democracies in which the prime minister, who already wields supreme power, is directly responsible for the Preventive Security Service, as well as the intelligence apparatus. In Britain, for example, the level of responsibility for the domestic security service (MI5), the equivalent of the Shin Bet, is the Minister of the Interior; in the United States, the head of the FBI, which also handles counterintelligence, is the Minister of Justice.

Sarour concluded her remarks by saying: “In the history of the Shin Bet, the head of the agency has always been appointed from among its senior members, with one exception: In 1996, Ami Ayalon was appointed head of the agency, following the disastrous failure to protect former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated by a Jewish extremist in November 1995.”

She emphasized that nearly thirty years after this appointment, we may witness the appointment of a second chief from outside the agency, but this time for narrow personal motives specific to Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Religious Zionism is concerned with control.

For his part, Imad Abu Awad, an expert on Israeli affairs, described the Shin Bet's threat to Netanyahu as part of the establishment's war against Netanyahu.

He said that Netanyahu and the nationalist and religious right came to power with the goal of changing the face of Israel, emphasizing that religious Zionism is concerned with what is known as control, and Netanyahu is concerned with neutralizing these institutions to serve his personal agenda and ensure his continued rule.

Abu Awad added: "Netanyahu is exploiting the prolongation of the war for this purpose, to reach a stage known as the continuation of the emergency, and then begin his war on the establishment to neutralize it, so that he can implement his plans without hindrance."

He pointed out that the Israeli establishment, historically built by Western Zionist liberals, began to sense the danger two or three years ago, and thus began to seriously consider the need to confront the extreme right led by Netanyahu.

Abu Awad asserted that Netanyahu confronted the army and was able to somewhat control it. He also confronted the police and was able to impose his influence over them. He is now working on the judiciary, but the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) is an obstacle, and therefore he seeks to control it as the last institution that still maintains its institutional nature and operates in accordance with Israeli rules, values, and laws. From here, he began working against it.

Netanyahu has come a long way in confronting the establishment.

He pointed out that recently, these institutions have begun to realize the need to confront Netanyahu, otherwise the situation will worsen. Against this backdrop, the confrontation has escalated and intensified.

He noted that the Shin Bet feels that the ruling right is increasing its control, posing a threat to the state. Netanyahu, meanwhile, believes he has come too far in his confrontation with the institutions, and therefore sees an opportunity to pounce on the Shin Bet. Therefore, he has begun using his influence within Israel to pressure this institution in one way or another.

Abu Awad believes that what we are witnessing today is unprecedented, and is an indicator of Israel's internal weakness and lack of clarity and confusion of identity.

Abu Awad said, "Perhaps we are facing two possible paths: the first is Netanyahu and the right-wing controlling the scene, and I believe this is the scenario that will crystallize in the coming years. As for the second scenario, which is a clash, I rule out its occurrence because the liberal Zionist movement has begun to adapt to this reality, and some of its members have even begun emigrating abroad."

Netanyahu fears former Shin Bet chief's remarks

For his part, Dr. Adnan Al-Afandy, an expert on Israeli affairs, described the former Shin Bet chief's threat to Netanyahu as unprecedented in the occupying state, noting that the Shin Bet chief's approach to the highest executive authority was unprecedented.

He said that Netanyahu considered the former Shin Bet chief's statements to be blackmail, crossing a red line, and a clear threat to him. Netanyahu responded by saying, "Never in the history of Israel or in the history of democracies has a former head of a secret security agency blackmailed and threatened a sitting prime minister on live television."

Al-Afandy emphasized that Netanyahu's reaction and statements demonstrate the extent of his fear of the former Shin Bet chief's statements.

He added that these statements stemmed from Netanyahu's behavior, which seeks only to preserve his political position as prime minister, without working to advance the interests of his people. He noted that he may use all available means and may even act against the law without hesitation.

He explained that this conviction has become firmly rooted among many political, security, and military leaders, and even among a large portion of his own people, particularly the families of prisoners held by the resistance in Gaza.

Putting pressure on Netanyahu

Al-Afandy believed that the former Shin Bet chief's statement came as part of an effort to pressure Netanyahu to release the detained prisoners and end the war on Gaza.

He said that the crisis has escalated to the point that Netanyahu has accused the current head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, of leading a systematic blackmail campaign through media directives in recent days. According to Afandi, this reflects a significant gap and lack of harmony in coordination between Netanyahu and the Shin Bet, a situation unprecedented in the occupying state.

Netanyahu said in his statements: "The goal of this campaign is to try to prevent me from making the necessary decisions to reform the Shin Bet after its disastrous failure on October 7."

Al-Afandy considered this statement to be clear evidence of the huge gap between Netanyahu and the security services in the occupying state.

Widespread political and security reactions

He pointed out that these statements sparked widespread reactions from political and security sources within the occupying state. Yair Golan, head of the Democratic Party, stated: "Netanyahu, who sold out Israel's security for his own political survival, sees anyone who serves the state, not just himself, as an enemy." Meanwhile, extremist minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated: "The head of the Shin Bet must not remain in his position for a single minute longer, and Netanyahu must dismiss him now." The Shin Bet responded through one of its officials, saying: "These are serious accusations against the head of a national organization in the State of Israel. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar devotes all of his time to security issues, efforts to return the abductees, and protecting democracy. Any other statement on this matter is baseless."

In conclusion, Al-Afandy emphasized that the statements of the former Shin Bet chief carry clear indications that the occupying state is experiencing political instability and that the internal situation is vulnerable to disintegration, which could lead to a confrontation between Netanyahu and his security services, especially the Shin Bet, which Netanyahu accuses of incitement against him. Netanyahu's filing of a complaint through his lawyer against the former Shin Bet chief, Nadav Argaman, alleging extortion, also shows that the situation in the occupying state is heading towards further internal instability.

Signs of a split or challenge to the existing authority

For his part, researcher Dr. Hassan Marhej, an expert on Israeli affairs, said that, in light of the threats posed by the former head of the Shin Bet, Netanyahu framed these threats as an attempt to prevent him from making the necessary decisions to rebuild the Shin Bet after its devastating failure on October 7.

He considered the former head of Israel's Shin Bet security service's threats against Netanyahu to reflect deep internal tensions within Israeli politics, as well as issues related to national security and political stability.

Marhej said, "The threats made by the former Shin Bet chief indicate a division or challenge to the existing authority, reflecting dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's current policies. These threats may also reflect concerns about the government's handling of national security, especially in light of regional tensions and internal conflicts. This clearly points to growing political polarization in Israel, with differing opinions on how to deal with security threats and domestic politics in the post-Al-Aqsa Intifada period."

Tension between security services and politics

He expressed his belief that these threats, at this time, reflect tensions between the security services and politics. Historically, Israel has witnessed tensions between the security services and the government, as there have been previous cases of security personnel criticizing government policies or decisions. Conversely, Israel has also witnessed popular protests against certain government policies in the past, leading to the intervention of prominent figures from the former security services to express their concerns.

Marhej emphasized that the former Shin Bet chief's threats to Netanyahu were not merely idle remarks, but rather reflected a complex reality encompassing security, political, and cultural issues. He emphasized the importance of monitoring developments in this situation and how they will impact the future of Israeli politics and national security.

The deep state can no longer tolerate Netanyahu's policies.

Journalist and expert on Israeli affairs, Ismat Mansour, emphasized that the Shin Bet's threat to Netanyahu is truly unprecedented. There may have been previous periods of tension between the security and political echelons, or between the heads of the security services and the prime minister, but for matters to reach this level of publicity, intensity, and threat demonstrates the extent of the anxiety and fear gripping the security establishment due to Netanyahu's behavior and the way he governs the state, and the impact this approach has on the security, judicial, and economic pillars within Israel.

Mansour added: "Just as Netanyahu emptied the police of its content and turned it into a tool in Ben-Gvir's hands, weakening and politicizing it, he has now begun to politicize the army, and there are fears that this approach will extend to the Shin Bet, turning it into a tool that serves the right-wing project and its ideas."

Mansour believes that this escalation and threat indicate that the situation has reached an unprecedented stage, where the deep state and its figures are no longer able to tolerate Netanyahu's policies. This is a clear message that the situation is becoming increasingly complex.

He added, "Based on these developments, the political landscape has become more complex, and anyone following the situation realizes that Netanyahu's political lifespan is either approaching its end, or he will lead Israel into unprecedented conflicts and shocks."

Mansour noted that this situation is interesting, predicting that Netanyahu will back down despite his attempts to escalate the situation. Despite his filing of legal suits against former Shin Bet chief Argaman, which have no real value, the repercussions of this crisis on Israel's domestic scene, as well as on political decisions and the mechanisms for making them, will be significant.